h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

Even inhabiting the body of an old hippy I can honestly say this is a crap piece of music for anyone over the age of four. And therefore will be ignored and have no effect on whatever it was this group is selling.

>> My impression is that this is a childish and patronising
piece of propaganda aimed at the wee kiddies. Poor things. <<

Indeed they slipped in the line "the Truth is with science" which is a political quasi-religious statement.

Science is real.
Religion is real.
Politics is real.
BowlSheet is real.

The utoob video is political and not scientific.

There is a sequence of events which occurs when an accepted belief is challenged by what for the purposes of this comment we may call the loonies. At first it is treated as the lunacy it genuinely is, and then when the laughter dies and the loonies endure, it is simply ignored. At this point it becomes accepted wisdom by the twittering Farcebook generation and this results in a genuine attempt to engage the loonies in academic debate. A big mistake, as you cannot engage the loonies in an intelligent debate as you will never raise it to your level of intelligence and can only result in your being dragged down to theirs.

If Hollywood makes it into a movie then you really need to just enjoy the unintentional humour of it all and get on with reality.

Well I can't disagree with you there. In any disagreement the key to understanding the disagreement is to agree on the point of differences. After that it depends on how willing the various parties are willing or able to discuss & resolve the differences. Sometimes as you say it is simply a matter of education or lack of it - like a school teacher trying to teach their students, & not every student is ready or able to learn at any given moment.

When Science is Politicised:

I read an interesting explanation as to why scientists & engineers plus a government official were found guilty of manslaughter & jailed for 6 years each after the magnitude 6.3 earthquake of 6 April 2009 that hit the city of L'Aquila in central Italy with 309 dead 1500 odd injured & 65000 people lost their homes. The earthquake occurred in a high risk seismic area, in which fatal earthquakes had occurred in the past including a complete levelling of the town in 1703.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20025626

Those jailed had participated in an emergency meeting of 31 Mar 2000 that was called specifically by the Civil Protection Dept to address public concerns of a seismic swarm occurring in & around the city … a steadily increasing seismic activity with tremors beginning in Jan 2009 & a 4.1 minor earthquake of 30 Mar 2000, where people gathered in the streets & many spending the night outdoors.

The emergency meeting was held in the city of L’Aquila & was high profile. In the meeting the experts said it was impossible to predict if & when a strong shock would hit L’Aquila in the near future. They stated a major earthquake was unlikely & that seismic swarms were not necessarily precursors of a stronger shock. They were thanked & a local councillor said their expert statements allowed her to reassure the public.

A local government official declared to the media that the seismic swarm “posed no danger” & that the scientific community had confirmed the situation to be favourable. He argued the seismic swarm was “discharging energy” from the fault & was therefore to be seen as positive. He encouraged the public to stop worrying & to raise a glass of wine instead.

In the hours leading up to the major earthquake of 6th April 2009 there were two medium shocks of Magnitude 3.0 & 3.7.

It was proven to the satisfaction of the presiding Judge that at least 29 inhabitants of the city lost their lives as a direct result of the reassurance given to them by the National Commissions message & the accused where found guilty of manslaughter.

The evidence came predominantly from another expert … an anthropologist at the University of L’Aquila from a one year study of testimony of witnesses … investigating the impact of the messages given to the public by the National Commission … such words as “discharge of energy” & related interpretation that medium shocks should be considered reassuring as they were discharging energy from the fault.

The message of the National Commission was found to have interfered with the local earthquake culture, a set of entrenched habits & reactions … such as spending the night outdoors after the appearance of medium shocks. The National Commission message was found to have over-ridden a least a certain fraction of the city residents normal behaviour … to spend the night outside rather than stay inside their homes.

Why was such a reassuring message given to the public … it turns out that there was an element of the experts wishing to stamp their own scientific authority on the matter & to discredit a lab. technician by the name of Giulani, a self styled expert on earthquakes. He had a fairly high media visibility & had predicted a major earthquake in the area to occur in the spring of 2009.

The manslaughter charge was not because they couldn’t predict earthquakes but that they had failed to address public concerns & to communicate risk effectively to the public. Instead they had given an incorrect overly reassuring message that had changed peoples behaviour & normal response to the two medium shocks preceding the major earthquake – staying inside their homes (& raising a glass of wine) rather than spending the night outside.

The above is adapted from an article by Massimo Mazzotti, director of the centre for science, technology, medicine & society at the university of California, Berkeley.

erratum: ... & a 4.1 minor earthquake of 30 Mar 2009 (i.e. the day before the emergency meeting in the city).

all "2000" should be "2009" ... life is so much easier when you can edit a comment.

Italian law has many examples of seemingly extreme interpretations
of criminal responsibilty, especially in cases of wrongful death and
manslaughter charges.

The principles of the Williams F-1 team were charged with murder after
the accidental death of Ayrton Senna in 94 and for several years they
had to avoid being arrested in Italy.

There seems to be some residual ancient Roman value system that
invests these charges with a public validation of Justice.


~jwf~

After the 3.0 / 3.7 tremors there were testimony of concerned relatives making phone calls to their mothers etc advising them to leave their home but the mothers etc specifically replying that they had been assured by the Commission & scientists on the commission to stay inside because of it was safer now that the energy had been discharged. A few hours later their mothers etc were dead & there was much anger & emotion over the advice & the manner of the assurance that had been given.

Now I would compare this to the outrage we see in Britain & elsewhere to social workers failing to prevent parents from murdering their children & the outrage politicians have towards teachers for failing to get their students through exams (hence the army of inspectors, disciplinary procedures, league tables ).

Saw this on the FB Philosophy group page.
It seemed germane to our main topic here.

http://atheistfallacies.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-atheist-psychosis-delusional-about-people/

"Atheists seem to think that it is virtuous to be non-delusional about facts
but accept being delusional towards people."


~jwf~

Stone Aart, do me a favor and avoid talking about earthquakes here (especially in certain number posts). I have friends in the Philippines.

>> I have friends in the Philippines.<<

Is this some sort of veiled threat such as "I have friends in high places" or " "I have friends in the disposal business"?

Just a half-joke by me (I think you know) about the 7.2 on Bohol and your post (which I think you made afterward). In other words, please be careful not to break things again, but I suppose it could be a threat. I'd be pretty upset if you did it again and the same thing happened!

I mean 'before'. I'm tired.

Are you intimating that my comment on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake had some sort of causal connection with the very recent earthquake in the Philippines? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24530042

What if I was an expert on the mechanisms, ethics and responsibilities associated with the public communication of risk … with a focus on risk communication of potential natural disasters such as earthquakes – would I have to keep silent & find another job? ... yet learning from previous disasters (such as L’Aquila) will surely be beneficial in the attempt to limit the impacts of future natural disasters on local populations.

Nice. Anyway, don't mind my being freaked out (a little) and making joke. You may return to debate on whichever; I'm hardly even online, much less here at hootoo.

My view is that the L'Aquila episode highlights the importance of communication of risk to the public. It was the Italian judge's view that the National Commission failed in their duty to communicate the risk to the public & their message (which was more political than scientific) actually resulted in an increase in risk ... leading to an increase in casualties rather than a decrease in casualties. It would be interesting to analyse what happened in the Philippines in terms of public preparedness, building standards, and public & government responses --> as these are the things that humans can influence.

ps I would guess someone with your expertise in mathematics would recognise the importance of risk assessment & communication: there is a "mathematics" to risk assessment.