This is the Message Centre for Pierce The Pirate ~ out of Hotblack Desiato mode again ~

Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 281

Pierce The Pirate ~ out of Hotblack Desiato mode again ~

I read in my papers - again - that the US is heading for a long lasting disaster. Because the 50 states have 50 different plans for reopening and people can move freely over every state line smiley - erm

smiley - pirate


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 282

Caiman raptor elk - Yes, but what if the box is REALLY big?

Showering continuously would also work.
(There are disadvantages to that though)


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 283

Baron Grim

Minor correction, Pierce: There are some restrictions on travel between states. In Texas, anyone travelling into the state from certain regions are confronted by DPS (Dept. of Public Safety, aka State Troopers) and ordered to self quarantine for two weeks.

It's still a smiley - bleep show in Texas though. I can accept the reasoning for reopening businesses with restrictions, but the Governor and others in office had fueled an anti-restriction and anti-mask furor on some basis of "FREEDUMB!"


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 284

Pierce The Pirate ~ out of Hotblack Desiato mode again ~

Duly noted, Baron smiley - ok

I don't want to mention neither Trump nor Boris nor any other politician in charge of making decisions about how to tackle the challenge at (hopefully well washed) hand but I can't help but quote one of my countrymen:

The advantage of cleverness is that you can play stupid. The opposite is far more difficult. [Kurt Tucholsky] smiley - zen

smiley - pirate


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 285

paulh. Antisocial distancing works a well as the Social kind

I hope we never extend voting rights to viruses. smiley - cross


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 286

Prof Animal Chaos.C.E.O..err! C.E.Idiot of H2G2 Fools Guild (Official).... A recipient of S.F.L and S.S.J.A.D.D...plus...S.N.A.F.U.

As in any form of cause/ing anyone to diesmiley - sadface it's life as such and as mere mortals, we can't change that unfortunately smiley - sadface
but! All I can hope! Is that anyone who I call FRIEND has a good and (under medical circumstances etc) continues to have a decent lifesmiley - smiley

NO Disrespect to anyone on the planet of course...


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 287

Pierce The Pirate ~ out of Hotblack Desiato mode again ~

The latest Covid-19 related death rates in the Nordic countries per 100,000 inhabitants:
* Sweden: 33.8.
* Denmark: 9.2.
* Finland: 5.1.
* Norway: 4.3.
* Iceland: 2.7.
* Greenland: 0.0.
* Faroe Islands: 0.0.
Sources: Johns Hopkins University, The Danish Agency for Patient Safety, National Medical Office in Greenland.

smiley - pirate


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 288

Pierce The Pirate ~ out of Hotblack Desiato mode again ~

Re Post 287:
Death rates from a selection of other countries. (Counting methods may differ between countries, which makes it difficult to compare.)
* USA: 25.6.
* United Kingdom: 49.9.
* Italy: 51.5.
* Spain: 57.7.
* Brazil: 6.3.
* Belgium: 77.1.
* Germany: 9.5.
* Worldwide: 3.9.
Source: Johns Hopkins University.

Note that these are preliminary figures and that it is still much too early to assess which countries have chosen the best strategy.

smiley - pirate


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 289

Pierce The Pirate ~ out of Hotblack Desiato mode again ~

This short video clip from Japan shows how quickly virus spreads via a buffet:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200508/k10012422171000.html

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200508/k10012422171000.html

smiley - pirate


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 290

Caiman raptor elk - Yes, but what if the box is REALLY big?

Two snags with the death rates:
-The numbers increase over time, so countries that had the virus earlier will have higher numbers at this time, even if the development is the same.
-Some countries only count deaths with confirmed positive corona test results while others look at the deviation between current and "normal" year over year mortality.


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 291

Baron Grim

Normally I love the persistence of BBC news when questioning guests, but yesterday I had to side with the guest, some sort of expert regarding Russia's response to the CoVID. The reporter was asking about Russia's suspiciously low death rates. The guest responded with the numbers available to him. The reporter started badgering the guest about the validity of those numbers considering that every other nation had death rates much higher. The guest responded that he was using Johns Hopkins data, not the official Russian numbers, and while he realizes that may not be completely accurate he has to use SOME numbers, he can't just pick numbers out of the air. There aren't ANY reliable numbers coming out of Russia so he has to work with what he's given.


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 292

Caiman raptor elk - Yes, but what if the box is REALLY big?

For what the worth of the official numbers are, I am trying to apply maths to the local numbers infected and deceased to see if I can roughly predict where we are going and what effect there is from measures taken by our government.

So far I see some interesting stuff.

Both the cumulative infected (=tested positive) and cumulative deceased (and tested positive) appear to start as exponential functions. From day 30 (That is 14 days after the start of our "intelligent lockdown" measures) We leave the exponential function for a logistic function (S-curve).

If we had kept to the exponential function, our whole population would have died the day after tomorrow. (Lucky for us, this appears not to be the case)

If the current logistic function holds as it is, we will see a total of 1500 more infections before it stops and about 300 deaths over the next two months before those stop as well.

Easing the restrictions might put us off that path though.


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 293

Pierce The Pirate ~ out of Hotblack Desiato mode again ~

As stated earlier counting methods may differ and it is still much too early to assess which countries have chosen the best strategy.
So even if Sweden's death rate seems to be 3.67 times higher than Denmark's it may turn out in a year or two that Sweden's strategy is the best.

smiley - pirate


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 294

paulh. Antisocial distancing works a well as the Social kind

technically, I wouldn't consider myself in "quarantine." I tested negative two weeks ago, and have not knowingly been exposed to a carrier of the infection.


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 295

Caiman raptor elk - Yes, but what if the box is REALLY big?

Even in two years time, it will still be hard to pinpoint a day by day number, as a change in the testing regime, counting strategy will give offset numbers / mess up the models. Weekends tend to pull down the number of reported cases, moving those to monday and tuesday.


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 296

Pierce The Pirate ~ out of Hotblack Desiato mode again ~

Agreed. But once we are through this initial phase - if we ever are ... - researchers may be able to compare methods and numbers and come up with something actually comparable. Might this be possible in - say - five years or so, you think?

smiley - pirate


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 297

Caiman raptor elk - Yes, but what if the box is REALLY big?

I agree that after all this has gone away, it will be easier to do the modeling and align the way data was gathered.

For the model I am currently working with, I need an estimate of where the numbers will top off, what the actual numbers were at day 0 (those can deviate from what was reported) and a k-factor that defines how steep the central curve is. Most of these will be much clearer with a complete data set, but modeling on the go might give an idea where we are going before we are there.

Others are doing that as well, hence the claim that London will have no new cases in June.


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 298

Pierce The Pirate ~ out of Hotblack Desiato mode again ~

Well, some numbers *might* indicate that at least parts of the globe are near the end of the first wave. Here are the percentages of how much the daily death toll has decreased / increased over the past 24 hours:
* USA: +0.9.
* United Kingdom: -13.3.
* Italy: +34.4.
* Spain: +17.9.
* Brazil: -2.6.
* Belgium: -26.8.
* Germany: -81.3.
* Sweden: +21.1.
* Denmark: -33.3.
* Worldwide: -0.6.
Source: Johns Hopkins University.

Remember that the figures must be taken with caution. For example, Denmark's percentage looks significant, but in reality there is only a decrease from six to four dead in 24 hours.

smiley - pirate


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 299

paulh. Antisocial distancing works a well as the Social kind

Lockdown can be a hoarder's paradise.

The psychology behind hoarding is related to the horror of never having enough of what you want or need. My mother grew up during the depression (she was nine when it started, so she remembered its effects vividly. Whenever she was in one of those big box economy stores(Caldor's Bradlee's, May's department Stores, etc.), she always noticed the good stuff that was going for a song. The last few pieces of a china pattern, an extra coffeemaker, cans of veggies or soup, towels., etc.

My mother often said that she and my father could do okay if the Great depression ever came back, but the younger people would have to struggle.

I am something of a hoarder, too, as I remember the fist few years when I was in a rooming house in Brookline, and attending graduate school. I had t stretch five dollars to provide a week's worth of food. I later branched out into collecting vinyl records, cassettes, and compact discs.Lo and behold, since mid-March, my huge stash of CD's have been sheer gold, as I can play seven or eight of them a day without ever hearing he same one twice, even if I go on playing them through the end of 2020.

Then there are the sets of fine china that I was constantly picking up in remainders sales at T J Maxx or Home Goods or Macy's for the first decade of the 21st century. I have a different pattern for each day of the month. If 'm inside a lot, I won't ever get bored with what's on my table. smiley

[Imported from cacrtuscafe's daydream jurnal]


Advantages of a Quarantine

Post 300

Pierce The Pirate ~ out of Hotblack Desiato mode again ~

I know. Not from personal experience but through my maternal Grandmother who lived through two world wars and the depression in between. And is now looking down at me from one of my bookshelves. When I was a kid she would re-use coffee filters again and again and was happy whenever she succeeded. It was no easy task rinsing them without breaking them! I wonder what her personal record was? 42 times? Nah, I doubt that (but would have loved it, of course) smiley - smiley

smiley - pirate


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