h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

The way many are becoming disenchanted with the three main
parties, I suspect a Scottish break away from the Union might be
something the Scots will contemplate - or at least more
independence. With a no to AV there won't be any parliamentary reform from London.

What a week this is looking to be...

Argyle relegated, Tories jubilant, No chance of change in the political system for 30 years or more (probably).

If United win the league on Sunday I am seriously going to have to comtemplate leaving the country!

FB

This is the editors pick on the BBC discussion page:

"225. neilharbi 1 Hour Ago
If AV is rejected the government would have no right to suggest that
the verdict is a vote of confidence in First Past The Post. The
truth is that we were given the choice of keeping a system that is
riddled with imperfections or adopting one that is worse. There are
other types of Proportional Representation that would have been much
better for our country than AV."

What I find interesting is its lack of learning - it is both
confused and wrong (mixing it up with proportional representation
and stating that AV is worse than FPTP).

I think the numbers are really key in the AV referendum.

If the result is 40-60 "No" or closer then that will allow a narrative of significant appetite for some change but not the change on offer. But in reality if the "No" vote is greater than 60% (and I suspect it will be significantly higher than this) then it really is the end of the issue for at least 20 years i'd say.

Whilst some people may have voted no to AV but wanted PR, unless the vote is close that, in the real world, simply will not be the narrative that comes out of this. I am really depressed.....

FB

On a separate but not unrelated matter:

I think Nick Clegg will have to resign the Lib-Dem leadership before
the end of this current term. They reached out to the dissaffected
young in the previous election campaign stating that a vote for
them would guarantee no significant increase in student fees if they
were elected. The fact they didn't keep this pledge has angered many.

The actual Higher Education funding change won't save the government
and the taxpayers any money in the short term. All that is happening
is that money that would have gone directly to the Universities
in the form of a "teaching grant" is being directed to the students
in the form of increased student loans. However because this money
is to be spent in the form of a loan it can be hidden from the
balance of payment account.

The Government calculated a break-even point of £7500 per annum
average university fee (where the money shifted from the university
teaching grant would equate to the amount needed for student
loans). However most universities will charge the full £9000 per
annum University fee. Consequently this means this system will be
more expensive than the original system it replaces at least in the
short term (more money needed to pay for student loans). Consequently
the government is back tracking and may impose further limits to student numbers.

Anyway that's my understanding of the matter.

One has to wonder about Nick Clegg's reasoning in going into coalition. He wanted the power...he got some power...the power that the Tories allowed them to have which was to be at the forefront of all the swingeing cuts the Tories wnated to carry out but from the publics' point of view the Lib dems made them.

The public get pissed off, the publilc blame the Lib Dims for going againmst election pledges, the one thing the Lib Dems wanted was a chance at PR or AV, they get that chance but due to the fact that Cleggstuck two fingers up to his supporters most people are teaching him a lesson by voting no to AV - and now they'll never get PR.

In one fell swoop he's stuffed the Lib Dem party for years to come.

Cameron and Millibund must be rubbing their hands with glee..it's true two party politics again.

Does Clegg care? Probably not - deptuy PM, power and a bright furture where-ever he goes from here.

> Labour are being almost wiped out!<

Don't think so, come the General election. Scots want their cake and eat it. But it will certainly more and more increase the perception of the English that they are indeed a different country. More questions will be asked about how they manage to afford free tuition fees and prescriptions, as the cuts really start to bite here.

***

As for Lib Dems..I made the point back when they first announced the coalition with the Tories, how will they cope with being hated because they've had the easy peasy luxury of opposition since Lloyd George wasn't it? It's mother's milk to be hated for Labour and Tories.

We'll see if they hold their nerve like grown-ups. I heard a really funny thing on the radio earlier this morning. Someone described them as a bit like a girls' badminton team..who run squealing from the room at the first sight of a spider.

"If Nick Clegg can keep his head when all about him are losing
theirs, it's just possible he hasn't fully grasped the seriousness
of the situation." Adapted from Jean Kerr adapted from Kipling ...

We're in a bizarre, bizarre place politically at the moment.

The Lib Dems get a kicking for being in a coalition with the Tories, and the beneficiaries of this could well end up being... the Tories. People seem to dislike the LBs more than the Tories, and I just don't understand that.

Sure, the sense of betrayal hurts when the dopey but basically harmless family pet turns on you and bites your leg, but it hurts much less than the savage attack dog taking chunks out of anyone other than the small minority who feed it. Just because you expect that attack dog to behave in that way doesn't make it any better.

And because of the electoral system, those who feel betrayed by the Lib Dems and can't bring themselves to vote for them at the next election will have a difficult choice. Because not voting Lib Dem could - in many marginal seats - let the Tories in because of the bizarre voting system that we have. Which it seems we have little chance of changing.

Some people are apparently so dead set against the Lib Dems that they'll allow the current FPTP voting system to continue - even though it's to the clear detriment of democracy, and to the clear advantage of the Tories.... who are the ones responsible for doing all that stuff they don't like. The words 'biting', 'nose', 'spite', and 'face' spring to mind.

Add to that a "no" campaign which many people think represents a new low in British politics - not spin, not positive campaigning, but simply making stuff up. A move towards American-style politics? I really hope not. And the "yes campaign" wasn't much better.

It looks like the SNP will win get a majority in the Scottish
Parliament and hence the Scots will get another referendum in the
next four years. However I would be surprised if they would go for
complete independence.

For any of the red persuasion I have had a blog published on Labourlist.org today about which I am quite pleased:-

http://www.labourlist.org/time-for-labour-to-wake-up

If anyone is interested



FB

>>People seem to dislike the LBs more than the Tories, and I just
don't understand that.<<

Those that voted for Tory in the general election would have voted
Tory again as well as for No to AV (apparently by 90%). Those that
voted for LibDem in the general election because of the student fee
issue (students plus parents plus ...) would not generally have
voted for LibDem. Of course if these previously LibDem voters voted
for the Tories instead - then that would be surprising. If they
didn't vote and the Tories got in as a result then again that's
their fault.

SNP now have a majority in the Scottish parliament.

SNP now have an overall majority! Remarkable. The seat that tipped them over the finishing line was the same area as Gordon Brown's Westminster constituency.

Amazingly, areas that were near as dammit Communist have voted SNP!!

>>Add to that a "no" campaign which many people think represents a
new low in British politics - not spin, not positive campaigning,
but simply making stuff up.<<

How can we be certain that it is not just with regard to the "AV/FPTP"
debate that politicians / government just simply makes things up?



FB - blogg bookmarked.

What happens if there is a tie in the AV vote?

Best comment I've seen so far about the Tory/LibDem thing - "It's as though the owner of the garden that a dog has shit in kicks the dog and shakes the hand of the owner."

It's no wonder that Labour Scots voted SNP. They've delivered free prescriptions, free university education, an NHS that's streets ahead of England (I've worked in both), and free personal care for the elderly.

I don't want to go back to England when my contract is up in 2 years time. I like it here too much.

True Z - the SNP just outdid Labour on the giveaways. On top of which, they've frozen Council Taxes again. If they're ever forced to renege on these (and they will), they can point to the big bad bogeymen in Westminster.

>>I don't want to go back to England when my contract is up in 2 years
time. I like it here too much.<<

On a separate matter and I may be wrong but I have sense of the Scots
having a sense of personal identity in being Scottish / a sense of
Scottishness. This is not something that I find a lot of in England
(a sense of being English / Englishness).

>>they can point to the big bad bogeymen in Westminster.<<

and North Sea Oil etc ...