h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

I can't help it. I'm interested. I want to know whether he lasts the day, though I don't believe for a second that he will last the week.

Why?

Beats me.

Why am I so interested in the internal civil war of a political party that has managed, over the last ten years, to make itself completely irrelavent? The whole Conservative Party is a pointless waste of space, but I still find myself watching the twists and turns of it's dying frenzy with rapt attention.

Is it me?

Is anyone else interested at all?


Geggs

It is like watching a car crash isn't it

I too think that IDS will not make it through the week, and that he will fail in the vote of confidence. I also think that the Tory membership, who then have the vote on who is the next leader, will be thoroughly p-ed off by the whole exercise and will in some fahion give the Parliamentary party a slapped arse.

I treat the Conservative Party as a morally acceptable way in which to get my daily dose of Schadenfreude, without which I get incredibly tetchy and unreasonable. So in a way they are performing a valuable service, at least for my family friends and colleagues.

I believe the Germans have a word for it....

A287255

Now that's a spectacular simulpost!

Great minds etcetera, eh, Otto?

And now the 25 letters have been gathered, and IDS says he will fight on.

So it seems likely he will last the day.

But he ain't gonna last tomorrow.


Geggs

They've got the 25? Blimey!


* off to BBCi News for details *

Indeed they have wonder who the other 21 were .

They did say who the fifth was on radio five, but I've forgotten- if you can relisten to the second hour of Simon Mayo's show on the website, a reporter tells him about forty minutes ninto the hour I think.

Well I've just done a quick spin round the bookies and the odds are rather interesting

IDS to win vote - 7/1
IDS to lose vote - 1/16


The next Tory Leader
Michael Howard - 5/4
David Davis - 5/2
Ken Clarke - 7/1
Michael Portillo - 8/1


Not that that will have much bearing on the forthcoming General Election, as the next price you can get on Michael Howard being the PM after the election is 7/1 (TB is 1/2 favourite with Gordon Brown at 9/2)

So more or less a foregone conclusion.

The only one I don't want is Ken Clarke, as he stands a chance of actually doing quite well. Much as I dislike Tony, I had only been aware of a tory government for most of my life and was glad to see the back of them - don't really want 'em back again...

All the others? *shudder*

Those are very short odds yes. But it's a question of who has put the money down, how much and how quickly after the book was opened.

I for one don't bet on those sort of races in politics as they are far too influenced by insider information and media gossip. On the other hand I will bet where the decision of the general public is involved. This made me a tidy little sum back in '97 when I spread bet on a Labour victory

Michael Howard? Ugh. Ugh ugh ugh ugh ugh.

No, seriously, Michael 'Something of the night' Howard? Michael 'My parents were immigrants not that this stops me being a complete and utter **** about immigration' Howard?

Every time I think I understand people, they go forth and weird me out completely.

Portillo says he won't stand, Clarke has apparently suggested that he is very unlikely to. Oliver Letwin says he won't stand as well. I reckon the two main candidates will be Howard and Michael Ancram. If Davis does stand, I can't see him doing much.

Incidentally, IDS needs 83 of the 165 Tory MPs to vote for him- when he won there were only about fifty- he was elected by the constituency parties rather than the parliamentary party, and there's no way he's going to make up fifty votes tomorrow, as I see it.

Woo-ooo the book is moving

Ken Clarke is now moving in at 6/1.

David Davis and Michael Howard have both drifted out to 10/3 and 6/4 respectively.

With the electorate consisting of the Tory membership (70% blue-rinsed old biddies, 40% retired colonels) there's no chance they'll vote for a homosexual or (even worse) a europhile. So MXP and KC stand no chance (not that I believe either falls into those categories - but I do believe that the tory party does believe that they do).

Michael Howard would be their favourite. It's been over a decade since they were last lead by a member of the undead - and she was quite successful.

...and then I switched from Paddy Power to Bluesquare and I find Clarke at 5/1

Also Oliver Letwin has made an appearance at 8/1 - yet he was the guy who said he would never ever stand for leader of the party as he didn't want a job that required a 24/7/365 commitment. Or is this a case of a politician only lying when his lips are moving

No matter how poisoned the chalice they'll be queuing up for it when the time comes.

Noggin