h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

Not strictly a science question, but I'm hoping you types are good at maths.

If you haven't seen it, Deal or No Deal is a gameshow where a contestant picks one of 22 boxes with a sum of money, somewhere between 1p and £250,000 in it. The contestant doesn't know how much money is in the box, and neither does anybody else in the game. The other 21 boxes are held by other players. Through the course of the game the contestant opens the boxes of the other players and at intervals gets offered money for their box, with the value of the offers being decided by the values of the boxes left unopened. The conestant tries to get as good an offer as possible, the Banker, who makes offers, tries to give them as little as possible.

My question is: is there any way to determine chances of getting a certain amount?

I've always thought that there is no way, since the boxes are chosen and have the values of money distributed randomly and the contestant's box isn't 'in play' (I'm not explaining this very well am I?) it effectively makes things completely random. I was just curious is this is right

Sorry just can't get my head around the programme. As the boxes are randomly allocated sums of money and randomly distributed it's pure chance plus it must be the most banal programme on the box.

But are the sums of money randomly distributed across the available range? Or are they fixed amounts randomly distributed to the boxes.

How do the boxes get to be opened? Can everybody see what's in an open box?

Noggin

People have described this as a variation on the Monty Hall problem, where the host eliminates losing boxes, but this isn't really DOND because winning boxes are picked randomly and eliminated instead of losing ones chosen by the host.

Sometimes when coming down to the last two boxes on DOND, an option to switch is given; sometimes it isn't. My guess is that this is random also.

So, to all intents and purposes, the chance of getting the £250,000 box are 1 in 22. The beauty of the game lies in the fact that a contestant might well sell it for a lot less than that. I thought it was banal at first, but now I reckon it's good TV, the contestants' personalities and the 'team spirit' aspect make the show a lot of fun, and Noel Edmonds has a lot of rapport and charisma.

B

I must be thick. Where does the team come into it?

The contestants (one to each box) all shack up in a hotel together until they are 'picked' to play. So there's quite a lot of mutual encouragement. They're not competing against each other, after all.

B

They are, I reckon, only two players in any one show. One is the contestant in the chair, and the other is the banker.

The banker is betting on the value of the box the contestant holds, based of the values of the opened boxes. Hoping the the contestant holds the £250,000 box, but will fold for less.

The contestant's aim is either, a) to hold the £250,000 box and not fold, which is unlikely, or b) to take the banker for as much money as possible before folding.

It's a game of nerve between the banker and the contestant, in esscence.


Geggs

Is the banker part of the establishment or is he just another contestant? If he is a contestant there must be some regulation regarding how much he can bid?

At any point in the game, if you kept playing until the end you would expect to make the average of the remaining numbers. Since the banker always seems to offer less than this amount, the 'long run' best strategy is just to keep playing until the end, so your chances of getting each amount is just 1/22. In practice, there's the 'lottery paradox': if you had one box with 1p in and one box with £250k in and the banker offered you £100k most people would take the £100k even though on average they'd win £125k by not taking the deal.

The game only really gets interesting near the end if there are some high and some low still left. Then you can begin to start calculating probabilities and think about what you would do. Suppose you had the £250k and 4 little ones left, you're faced with an interesting gamble. The chance that the £250k will still be left after you take 3 boxes away is 2/5. So if you say "no deal" then 3/5 of the time you'll be left with only tiddlers, and 2/5 of the time you'll have the biggy and one small, so you'll probably get a good offer (probably bigger than £50k, maybe even as high as £100k). Knowing this, most people would deal, but in fact they often say no deal because they don't know the probabilities.

It's a really irritating and stupid show, but it's on right after countdown so what can I do?

WA, the banker is part of the set-up, and his only contact with the stage floor is via an old fashioned telephone sitting on the table.


Geggs

It's quite amusing watching the *seriously* rich Noel Edmonds pretending to give a sh*t. Much like 'Millionaire' in that respect.

I wonder what it's ratings are like, low I'd guess.

I fear it probably does OK, sandwiched between 'Countdown' & 'Ricky and his Judy' and as there's no competition at that time.

The three box 'Take Your Pick' problem? I FINALLY understand why you should always change your mind if you are shown an empty losing box...

No the ratings are high and climbing. There are moves afoot to take the show out from it's afternoon slot and put it into primetime.

Just so long as it replaces Gillian 'SnakeOil' McKeith and not something worthwhile!

It is irritating at first and then slowly takes hold. It's bloody addictive, I quite like it now

It's similar to Millionaire, in that the show is not really about the money, it's about the tension the possiblity of the money creates.


Geggs

What I like about it is the arrogance of some of the contestants, the 'I know exactly what I'm doing look' when everybody knows it's pure chance through and through

"Since the banker always seems to offer less than this amount,"

Hmm...not always. The Banker is widely believed to be Glenn Hugill: ex-Corrie actor and now Game Show behind-the-scenes supremo. He's a very clever man and a very good reader of people. According to Noel himself, the 'Banker' has a number-cruncher which gives him upper and lower limits on which to offer (it's presumably something like http://www.bothersbar.co.uk/dornd.htm ) and he uses his well-honed judge of people to pitch appropriately in between. I would guess he also gets fed approximate information from the hotel where the contestants stay in order to find out what level of bids would prove acceptable, or not. Don't forget that the banker is the only person who knows which boxes are which.

B