h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

Calling the Asteroid NT7, is this just another Microsoft plot???

maybe in 2019, but you should have added the url
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2147879.stm

From the article:

Regarding the possibility of an impact, Dr Yeomans said the uncertainties were large. "The error in our knowledge of where NT7 will be on 1 February, 2019, is large, several tens of millions of kilometres..."

So why is this news now? I do not want to know about it unless there is a real threat. Then and only then will I reveal my blueprints for the Intergalactic Space Craft that will take me away from this planet - until then I shall carry on paying into my pension.

I would reveal the plans now - because as it stands at the moment your pension is worth less than it did this morning, which was less than it was yesterday, which was less than the day before and so on.
Another heap of value wiped off the exchanges today and no bottoming out in site means it will be worth even less by tomorrow..........

It is considered a threat because:

1 - Early observations (100 or so) over a short period (about two weeks since it was first spotted) have indicated that it's orbit brings it into close proximity with the earth 11 times over the next 100 years.

2 - The first "closest" approach, misses, but not by much (a few tens of thousands of miles).

3 - The asteroid in question is approximately 2km diameter, weighs approximately 10 billion tonnes (yes, billion) and is moving at around 28km/s.

4 - If it hit the earth it would deliver an energy burst roughly equivalent to 1 million Megatons of TNT.


The full stats are at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2002nt7.html

Unlike most of the objects currently observed and monitored, NT7 does represent a significant threat on the hazard rating scales used by astronomical observers. Both of the scales used (Palermo and Torino) categorise the threat based on probability of impact and the scale of the damage.

Very few objects actually register on these scales but this one does, probably because of the sheer size of the damn thing.

Let's hope that as more observational data is gathered that NT7 is found to be a significant miss, or we will all end up as extras in a live remake of Deep Impact/Armageddon.

Well that page said 11 possible impacts when I checked it earlier. Looks like they have added a few more observations and reduced the number to 9.

Is the picture here a scare tactic? It's out of y a huge amount. A 2km object when compared to that perspective of the earth would look much less threatening. Could that be why the picture is exagerated?

We shall see! The picture - is it from a movie? Of course 1st February 2019 is Jimmy's 34th birthday. What a present he'll get, if it *does* hit us! I don't see it myself, somehow, but it is possible. Can we do a "Deep Impact"? (Much the superior movie, Armageddon was pants, and ironically, re-run on NZ TV on Sunday past, I think...)

Personally I think a 2km chunk (or possibly cluster) that comes around every 2 years can be dealt with in 17 years.

A few dozen paveway bombs launched from a magnetic accelerator should do it. Remembering that dealing with this kind of threat should not be hampered by budget concerns.

Yes, a year is a long time in science, and we have 17 of them. It's a much better use for bombs than dropping them on people! I like the idea of aliens coming along, as Kirk and Spock did on Miramanee's planet (TOS - what was that episode called?) Mind you, with Kirk's amnesia, that didn't work out too well, did it?

In TNG they tried towing an asteriod by wrapping it in a warp bubble which reduces mass by being slightly out norman space/time

Norman space/time? Is that related to Anglo-Saxon space/time?

I knew a reaction like that was comming and I'm gad it was tame.

Seriously though 'normal' is a difficult description for scace time. Eg to use the magnetic accelerator concept. If hurled from orbit, the speeds attainable for a piece of matter could lead to discussions on relativity.

The affect on measly 2km asteriod...

Well, acording to the site mentioned above, the probability of impact in 2019 is 3.9e-6...

Here's an interesting statistic for you: that's fifty times more likely than winning the lottery in the UK with a single ticket.

Possible conclusions:

1) We're all going to die in 2019

Or:

2) Playing the lottery is pointless, even if you spend £50

I'm not going to lose sleep over this one quite yet

(Remember... it could be you!)

*cough* according *cough*

The last major asteroid was 65 million years ago, when our ancestors were small rat-like creatures. Wouldn't it be an astronomical coincidence if, after 2 million years of evolution, just at the time when humans are able to predict (though do nothing about) the next asteroid hitting earth, this actually happens? Sounds like someone's angling for more wedge to me.

If the name NT7 *is* a Microsoft plot, the asteroid will probably arrive 3 years late, hit the moon by mistake, and then turn out to have been made from hot air and bulls*&t.

I think you might have a point there. Either that or there's something else going on, that the powers that be don't want us to know about. So they simply release this story.

Potholer

And finally the question of funding rears its head. I would imagine that's almost certainly it. Those money grubbers are after more cash so they can do a proper job of trying to spot one of these beasties. Will their complicity never end?

You'd never stop a big one anyway. Nuking into oblivion would require equal distribution of destructive force, which you can't have. You'd just end up with thousands of little asteroids which could potentially do more damage. You could, if you spotted it early enough, fly out there with your big magneto drive (or rocket or whatever) and attach it to the asteroid. With enough force over enough time you could gently shunt the thing off course. A missile being the answer to everything betrays our hunter/gatherer past. The abilty to conjoin forces, waive the fee and get on with it would be a real step forward. Afterwards though... Let's face it, we may need one of these chaps along every so often just to keep the group effort going.

And finally... If you look at the record of evolution and extinction, bobardment from space is a regular event - more importantly it is a vital event. We wouldn't be here without large bolide collisions, and the course of evolution would certainly be different in a hundred million other ways. If we can't do anything about them, just think of them as a forest fire - unpleasent for those living at the time, but a crucial part of regeneration none-the-less. I for one would be proud to be living at such a juncture. Bring it on, I say!

I would be even more proud to be living after one.