h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

I think we can all agree that this Summer's season has not been the rip-roaring success that it might have been. The reasons for this being plainly obvious
-- none of us hand on heart could claim to be an expert on European club football, so all predictions are something of a lottery.
-- some decidedly odd results in the last two weeks that made a mockery of our (barely) informed predictions.



So, it's time to ask the question, does anything need changing in the format of the Fantasy Football competition?

Whilst I'm always open to suggestions, there are a couple of ground rules as to what I would be interested in incorporating.
1) This whole thing is supposed to be fun, so I'm not particularly interested in any changes that make the competition more complicated to play. I want to attract the casual player as well as the football anorak
2) Nothing that makes the my job running the whole show more time comsuming. Except of course if that extra work comes as a result of having extra players



A few thoughts about the current villain of the peace - The Pools Panel.

1) It is designed to bring people into the competition and to encourage them to stay. Not everyone can be around for the 14 to 16 weeks of regular competition, so having a device to help with the occasional absences will give them a fighting chance on a levelish playing field.

2) The Pools Panel reflects reality in football. It is the complete data set from the last Premiership season, so the results that get predicted are likely to reflect the reality of a set of football matches. Perhaps there is scope to make the data set less representative of reality?

3) The advantage that the human player has over the Pools Panel is that they are likely to know that Manchester United are usually going to win out at home over Fulham on any given day of the week. The Pools Panel doesn't, but it does know that 45% of all games are home wins, so will award ManU a home win 45% of the time. A feature of the current Summer season has been that we don't know enough about European football to know that FC Wil will beat Willem II or not, hence narrowing the gap between human predictions and Pools Panel.

4) The results for the last full season January to May had an average weekly winning score of more than 11 points, and 16 games were predicted bang on the money for a full house. The season we've had this summer has seen the average win drop to 9 points and no games have been predicted correctly -- see I told you no one knew what they were doing



Anyway, that's enough from me for the time being. I'll post this up and see what you all have to say. I'll not post myself for a while (other than if asked to clarify any of the points I've made) as I don't want to influence the debate unduly.

Over to you

I'm not particularly interested in proposing rules changes, as I'm hoping most people will prefer my format of Fantasy Football. I will, of course be participating in Season Eight whatever, just so there's someone to prop up the table.

A few points, then:

"1) It is designed to bring people into the competition and to encourage them to stay. Not everyone can be around for the 14 to 16 weeks of regular competition, so having a device to help with the occasional absences will give them a fighting chance on a levelish playing field."

Well that, sadly, hasn't worked. We usually get one or two new recruits for each season, and the three that GD has run have been just the same. A statistician would tell you that the PP has made no difference whatsoever.

"2) The Pools Panel reflects reality in football. It is the complete data set from the last Premiership season, so the results that get predicted are likely to reflect the reality of a set of football matches. Perhaps there is scope to make the data set less representative of reality?"

Perhaps there is, but the players who are good at this game (Ormy, Otto F & Robin) have regularly picked 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines as these are by far the most probable. In effect, you would be saying that the PP is less likely to pick you out a good set of results than simply cutting-and-pasting Ormy's predictions which, while morally reprehensible, would probably not attract any complaints. It's quite likely, in fact, that no-one would even notice.

"4) The results for the last full season January to May had an average weekly winning score of more than 11 points, and 16 games were predicted bang on the money for a full house. The season we've had this summer has seen the average win drop to 9 points and no games have been predicted correctly -- see I told you no one knew what they were doing"

So, in other words, you should all come and play my game instead.

Only joking, Desk. About the last bit, that is. Everything else was serious.

B

I think I probably owe Greydesk an apology for the amount of pools panels that I've needed in this season. I've been away on holiday for some of the time, but for others I've just forgotten.

I'm sure that my memory will improve with the start of the new season proper. It'll also take less time to play, as there will be less research needed than for the European games. Speaking personally, I prefer predicting results for English and Scottish leagues, as I'll either know enough to make predictions already, or will know where to get the info.

I suppose we could put something in the Post or Ask H2G2 if we want more players, but I don't think we need any wholesale rules changes. Having said that, perhaps there should only be one pools panel run per week (to save work) and that the score should be capped at the score of the lowest participating player. What does everyone think?

Otto

OK, here's my - Your first point is a good one, Master B - the Pools Panel didn't encourage me to join the league *but* it certainly helped keep me in the game when I was away for weeks 4 & 5. Or whenever it was. Otherwise I'd have probably fallen so far behind that I'd have dropped out.

Otto - your points:
Putting something in the Post or Ask H2G2 to advertise for more players

Having only be one pools panel run per week

The pools panel score being capped at the score of the lowest participating player

The last point is, I think, the best.

I forgot to mention in my first posting that the Pools Panel as it is currently constructed, can only give one a maximum of four points for a game - two for the result, one for the score, a 1 in 22 shot of getting a scorer point with nothing for a first scorer.

Therefore in strange times like the last couple if weeks, you may get an advantage on the results bit, but you will never get an advantage on the scorer points element by using the Pools Panel.

Personally, I'm pretty happy with the current format - although that may be influenced by the way that my lead seems to keep growing no matter how badly I perform! On the past couple of week's performances, asking for a Pools Panel is probably a much better idea than cutting and pasting my predictions!

Maybe, with hindsight, using Inter-Toto Cup games wasn't that good an idea. Evidently some clubs field weakened teams for that competition; that's the best explanation I can think of for the results we've been getting. Similar problems may affect the forthcoming friendly matches.

But in just three weeks, the Nationwide League will be back; and next close season, we'll have Euro 2004 to keep us entertained. So I really don't think there's any need to panic, or to make any major changes to the competition.

i'm with ormy, i like the current format. it's nice and simple. plus in the normal league you can pick you teams pretty quickly.

i also think that having the pools panel, has certainly kept me going in the game. i would have pulled out otherwise after missing 2 weeks.

lets wait till next season before stressing. this season was just a little bit to much work to keep it fun

Thank you all for your input so far. Does anyone else have anything to say?

Yeah - Why is orange jam called marmalade?

B

According to the UK Preserves Manufacturers' Association, the name probably derives from marmelo, the Portuguese word for quince, which was used in Portugal to make a preserve called marmelada.
Records show that this delicacy first arrived in England in 1495. Marmalade appears to have subsequently stuck as the name for any jam made with citrus fruits. Perhaps the distinction is made because they have firm skins which give the preserve a stiffer consistency than that of other jams.

Ah - jolly good. No chance of changing any Fantasy Football rules, then?

B

It's not beyond the bounds of possibility. As I said, I'm open to suggestions.

Fantasy Football suggestions, or just suggestions in general?

B

Mainly Fantasy Football suggestions, but again, I listen to other suggestions if I think that they are worth listening to.

Get your arse offline on a Saturday night and go and go down the pub, you anti-social git.

B

Nah, I'm not feeling so great today. And I've got to get up early to go to the office tomorrow

bummer, i'm at the office at the moment. so i didn't get to go out last night either

it suxs at it is a gorgeous sunday morning

on numer six's point about caping pools panel at lowest active player- what i used to do when I ran this was to assume predictions of 0-0 for all games, or the lowest active player's score, whichever was lower, but that got dropped for reasons I can no longer remember.

The reasons I think are somewhere in this thread - F102767?thread=220350

Ok I've had a read of the ideas and stuff in this thread and have come to the following conclusions:
1) Marmalade is very nice. I especially like the thin shred versions made by Wilkin & Sons of Tiptree, Essex. And I like mine spread thinly over wholemeal toast with unsalted Normandy butter.
2) I should be getting off of my arse and going out because it's a Saturday night. Well I *will* be, but only once I've posted this message...


Anyway, rule changes.

There won't be any. The Pools Panel stays in place. However I will be changing the way that I operate the scheme. From now on PP picks will be posted once the games have been played and not willy-nilly through the week. Read into that what you will