h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

Hi rg

'I'm back...'

So am I, just... Loaded some 'critical updates' from Bloatware Inc. some days ago which completely buggered my system and it has taken me until now to diagnose an fix the problem.

Attempt to use iPad as alternative unsuccessful. Will try to reply either to-morrow or Tuesday.

bs

hi rg

'... the dubious SNP tactic of siding up to Labour (on condition they became "something better")'

I'm not wholly clear why you find this tactic 'dubious'. Surely a straightforward offer made in a context where the polls (however unreliable they later proved to be) suggested no overall majority for either Labour or the Tories.


'...We have half the story and of that I trust nought.'

I agree that their are certain things we don't know like the sender/recipients of the memo and whether anyone else in the Scottish Office/ Liberal Democrat part but I am unclear why you don't trusts facts like:

(a) we have the text of the memo

(b) Carmichael lied when he claimed he had no knowledge of the leaked memo prior to its publication.

(c) Carmichael subsequently admitted that this was a lie.

(d) Carmichael subsequently admitted he authorised the leak.

(e) Carmichael has written a letter to Sturgeon accepting that the account in memo 'was not correct''.

(f) IPSO ruled that the Telegraph's story breached Clause 1 Editors' Code.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33408441

(g) Carmichael's conduct is being reviewed by the Court of Session and the PSC

'I think it fair to say that there is also a strong Scottish presence.'

There is certainly a Scottish presence but it seems relatively small though I'm not such a regular poster as you are so I may have encountered fewer of them than you have.


'Do the Scots have tearooms?'


Apparently we do:


http://scottishtea.com/scotlands-top-9-tea-rooms/

though I can't recall ever seeing one I am more familiar with the Italo-Scots cafes in one of which I had my first real coffee.

' 'Your' susukifluff is Scottish based iirc.'

No, Northampton.


'Do they mean by membership, votes or Westminster seats?'

I don't think the sock puppet Mundell was specific.


'The subtlety is somewhat lost on me. Both suggest an exclusive political entity chiseled out from an existing structure'


Billy Bragg distinguishes them thus:

"The ethnic nationalism of the BNP is there for all to see – a plan for a society that excludes people on grounds of race. The programme of the SNP takes a diametrically opposite position – an inclusive society based on where you are, not where you’re from."

'I did hear something about a 'solution' to the West Lothian Question on the radio this morning. The proposal seemed wishy washy to say the least. To me the only practical solution is Scottish independence.'

Indeed but what we are to have is EVEL.

'Pass - don't know!'

Great Britain no more? Naff Cameron rhetoric about 'we can make Great Britain greater still'.



'How would that work? I'd have thought more uncertainty would reside with 'No'?'

Well the EUphobes seem to be developing a narrative based on the uncertain consequences of staying in.

'dutifully march back to traditional parties'

They seem to have a lot of alternatives:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Eurosceptic_parties_in_the_United_Kingdom

'Must try harder.'

I've settled on a regime of full Frühstück at the weekends and healthy low sugar low fa cereal during the weekend and now that I am really retired more exercise.

bs

Hi Bx4

"...Surely a straightforward offer made in a context where the polls (however unreliable they later proved to be) suggested no overall majority..."

Of dubious value because the English electorate could have no way of knowing what the actual SNP post election conditions would be? So they'd be voting Labour whilst an independent SNP were likely to hold the balance of power. By definition that party could not be voted out next time - the SNP could do what they liked outside of their own domain - the tougher on England the better? Also the SNP proved to be a gift to the Evil campaign poster team. So an offer of dubious value imv.

"...Carmichael..."

I appreciate the effort you made to compile the list. I agree there are fixed points namely the memo (I assume this is a true facsimile), and a BBC link which includes "while the newspaper was entitled to report on the memorandum, it had published its contents as facts" which hints that the content of the first fixed point may not be 'fact'. In noting Carmichael admitting to lying I'd ask, given that he is a self confessed liar, then why should I trust anything he says or does? So I have a problem with b) to e) and g). I am less than convinced that I should rely on the half story revealed to date as a factual account. This Carmichael skulduggery is likely to remain shrouded in fog forever. Fodder it is for tabloids and The Daily Telegraph. What will the electorate say? Will they care?

"...susukifluff is Scottish based iirc.' ... No, Northampton..."

I'm surprised. It is perfectly possible that I am confusing them with another poster with a business in The Highlands so apologies for that.

"...'The subtlety is somewhat lost on me. Both suggest an exclusive political entity chiseled out from an existing structure' ..."Billy Bragg distinguishes them thus: ..."The ethnic nationalism of the BNP is there for all to see – a plan for a society that excludes people on grounds of race. The programme of the SNP takes a diametrically opposite position – an inclusive society based on where you are, not where you’re from." "

Yet the result is the same when viewed from Westminster - an independent country on the doorstep? Yes there would certainly be a difference within Scotland as to whether an ethnic or civic model was adopted.

".... what we are to have is EVEL..."

Apparently not sfaics. Torpedoed.

"? Naff Cameron rhetoric about 'we can make Great Britain greater still'..."

No idea I'm afraid. He is supposed to stand aside during this parliament? Perhaps soon?

"...the EUphobes seem to be developing a narrative based on the uncertain consequences of staying in..."

We have been in the EEC/EU since when? In my view the uncertain option is to leave. Better the Devil...

"....They seem to have a lot of alternatives..."

Scattergun at best. Also the Evils are listed! The Evil leader is for staying in!

"...full Frühstück..."

Full on fish and chips here!

Good luck with the exercise.

bs

Hi rg

just got back from an impromptu sailing holiday. Will reply tomorrow.

bs

Hi Bx4

Good for you (and am glad you returned safely). Not long back from a short two wheeled tour of Wales myself.

bs

hi rg

'Of dubious value because the English electorate could have no way of knowing what the actual SNP post election conditions would be?'

I don't see why this would be the case. after all Sturgeon was fairly explicit as to what her conditions for a post election support would be a move from Labour's 'Tory Lite' austerity policies to more progressive ones.

'So they'd be voting Labour whilst an independent SNP were likely to hold the balance of power.'

Again I don't see the problem. Surely this in inherent in any coalition agreement whether formal or informal and would apply whoever was in coalition.

'By definition that party could not be voted out next time - the SNP could do what they liked outside of their own domain - the tougher on England the better?'

I don't see the logic here. Surely the Scottish electorate could vote out its MPs at the next election and in terms of a general election the domain is the UK with a HoC dominated by English MPs. So it is unclear how the SNP could impose your putative tough policies on England.
'
'Also the SNP proved to be a gift to the Evil campaign poster team.'

You have never managed to produce any objective evidence that this was a major factor in the English electorate rejection of Miliband and the Labour Party. Obviously there are some Labour politicians and some Labour supporters who find this a more comfortable narrative than looking at the more complex reasons for the electorate's judgement on miliband and his party. Although tis rhetoric seems to have been abandoned by post-Miliband Labour.

'So an offer of dubious value imv.'

Perhaps it was not the offer that was of 'dubious value' but rather Miliband's rejection of it and his commitment to 'Tory Lite' austerity policies.

'... a BBC link which includes "while the newspaper was entitled to report on the memorandum, it had published its contents as facts" which hints that the content of the first fixed point may not be 'fact'.'

I think you may be conflating two different issue the fact that there was a memo whose contents are known and whether Sturgeon's position described in that memo is a fact.


' In noting Carmichael admitting to lying I'd ask, given that he is a self confessed liar, then why should I trust anything he says or does? So I have a problem with b) to e) and g).'

I don't see the logic. If Carmichael lied (b) then (c) and (d) can't be lies because if they were then (b) would not be a lie.

Also I'm not clear why you think (g) is a problem since it is a fact that Carmichael's behaviour is being investigated by both the Court of Sessions and the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner.

'Yet the result is the same when viewed from Westminster.'

Is this true. Having a neighbour with a culture based on ethnic nationalism would seem to be more problematic than one based on civic nationalism.

'Yes there would certainly be a difference within Scotland as to whether an ethnic or civic model was adopted.'

Scotland already adopted the model of civic nationalism since the basis of entitlement to vote in the referendum was on the basis of residency alone and not on ethnicity or nationality. Compare and contrast with entitlement to vote in the Brexit referendum.

'Apparently not sfaics. Torpedoed.'

Only deferred, surely?


"But following an emergency Commons debate last week, coordinated opposition from Labour and the SNP and significant unease on his own benches, Mr Grayling offered a two stage debate which will not finish until at least September."

http://www.clyde2.com/localnews/evel-debate-overshadowed-by-snp-fox-hunting-vote-row/

'We have been in the EEC/EU since when? In my view the uncertain option is to leave. Better the Devil...'

But it is the aggregrate preference of the electorate and a 'Project Fear' narrative developed by the EUphobes and their media running dogs may affect this preference.

'Scattergun at best.'

The original 'Project Fear' use a similar approach. A case of never mind the quality feel the width?


'Also the Evils are listed! The Evil leader is for staying in'

Yet one of the main reasons for the referendum is to placate the Evils who want a Brexit.

bs

Hi Bx4

"...conditions for a post election support would be a move from Labour's 'Tory Lite' austerity policies to more progressive ones..."

Meaning what precisely in terms of tax, borrow and/or spend?

"...inherent in any coalition agreement whether formal or informal and would apply whoever was in coalition..."

Except that on 'the other side' UKIP were only asking for a referendum which looked as if it may take place anyway. The SNP didn't appear to want nothing for their allowing Labour to rule.

"...it is unclear how the SNP could impose your putative tough policies on England..."

The SNP (if its constitution is to be believed) exists to promote Scotland's interests. Everyone else comes second. Scotland could disproportionately benefit from the price extracted for their support of Labour. Note the SNP would not deal with the Conservatives so the only realistic way to vote anti SNP outside of Scotland would be Tory.

"...You have never managed to produce any objective evidence that this was a major factor in the English electorate rejection of Miliband and the Labour Party..."

Fair point. I can only say in my defence that this is my opinion after my viewing of the Challenger's Debate. The 'post electoral deal' segment was a 'car crash' on a Grandma Bigot scale. For hapless Miliband there was nothing he could do to stop the parody of a Tory electoral poster being played out before millions of viewers eyes. On the irony Cameron scored a direct hit and he wasn't even there.

"...Perhaps it was not the offer that was of 'dubious value' but rather Miliband's rejection of it and his commitment to 'Tory Lite' austerity policies..."

Fair point again however for this to be successful this needed to be clearly Labour policy rather than a move dictated by the SNP as a price for 'allowing' Labour to rule.

"...you may be conflating two different issue the fact that there was a memo whose contents are known and whether Sturgeon's position described in that memo is a fact..."

Trouble is I trust none of it. Why should I - everyone and their dog admits it contains at least one lie? Only one lie or are there more?

"...Carmichael's behaviour is being investigated by both the Court of Sessions and the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner..."

Perhaps they can make some sense out of all this though for me the ship has sailed. I'm sure the good people Carmichael represents will be keen to deliver their verdict (all be it up to five years down the line). I'd try and vote Carmichael out.

"...Having a neighbour with a culture based on ethnic nationalism would seem to be more problematic than one based on civic nationalism..."

I fail to understand why? In any event what used to be a part of the country would cease to be. By definition the leaving would not be in a spirit of mutual contentment with arguments such as about currency (it's our pound - not it's not it's the UK's) ringing on till the end.

"...Compare and contrast with entitlement to vote in the Brexit referendum..."

Has this been decided on yet? Unless I'm missing something what is being proposed is that entitlement to vote would be as for the UK General Election under which the mandate to hold an EU referendum was secured?

"[EVEL]...Torpedoed.' ...Only deferred, surely?..."

Stupid idea anyway. My view on the future for devolution is rather different than I've heard being proposed.

"...offered a two stage debate which will not finish until at least September..."

I can only hope they have the sense to remember the dead parrot sketch.

"....a 'Project Fear' narrative developed by the EUphobes..."

I'm afraid I can't agree because we have been 'in' for so long any 'fear of change' will work for EU supporters (big business etc.) just like for Scotland and the UK. Folk are small 'c' conservatives - they don't like change they don't want to be cast out. 'Better the Devil you know' and all that.

"...A case of never mind the quality feel the width...'

How would this work with fptp?

"...one of the main reasons for the referendum is to placate the Evils who want a Brexit..."

It is odd that they were allowed to remain in the party. 'Divided parties don't get elected' used to be the rule? I'd have thought the main reason for the referendum was to spike UKIP's guns?

bs

hi rg

The SO and I have just arrived in Edinburgh for the Festival

'Meaning what precisely in terms of tax, borrow and/or spend'

"The distinguishing feature of the SNP economic policy is its pledge of a fiscal stimulus. The Ed's of Labour are totally opposed, committed to some wobbly concept of fiscal prudence and sound fiscal policy."

http://www.pieria.co.uk/articles/the_anti-austerity_economics_of_the_snp

'Except that on 'the other side' UKIP were only asking for a referendum which looked as if it may take place anyway. The SNP didn't appear to want nothing for their allowing Labour to rule.'

If the counterfactual had been a minority conservative government who wanted a A Brexit referendum then they would have got it only if a 'coalition' with UKIP and the DUP had given them an overall majority. So I don't see how this invalidates my point.

'The SNP (if its constitution is to be believed) exists to promote Scotland's interests. Everyone else comes second.'

Indeed. Presumably just as the agenda of the Unionist parties is in some sense to promote the Union's interests; albeit that said parties might not agree on what those interests are except the one they universally agree on.

'Scotland could disproportionately benefit from the price extracted for their support of Labour.'

The price was a greater devolution of powers. In what sense would this be a disproportionate disadvantage to England?

'Note the SNP would not deal with the Conservatives so the only realistic way to vote anti SNP outside of Scotland would be Tory.'

This presupposes that the English electorate were significantly more influenced by the prospect of a SNP-Labour 'alliance' that they were by Labour's perceived history of economic mismanagement and doubts about Miliband's competence as a Prime Minister.

'Fair point. I can only say in my defence that this is my opinion after my viewing of the Challenger's Debate. The 'post electoral deal' segment was a 'car crash' on a Grandma Bigot scale. For hapless Miliband there was nothing he could do to stop the parody of a Tory electoral poster being played out before millions of viewers eyes. On the irony Cameron scored a direct hit and he wasn't even there.'

One should note that Miliband rejected the proposed 'progressive alliance' during the debate and subsequent to it. I don't see how you can assume that it was this proposed alliance' that led to the English not electing Miliband rather than his rejecting of it in favour of his preferred 'Tory Lite' austerity policies.

'Fair point again however for this to be successful this needed to be clearly Labour policy rather than a move dictated by the SNP as a price for 'allowing' Labour to rule.'

I'm not sure that Miliband had clear policies though he may, given the growing support Corbyn, have profoundly misjudged the appetite of Labour voters for anti-austerity policies advocated by the SNP.

you have made much of 'allow'. As I pointed out earlier it has two quite distinct meanings, 'permit' and 'make it possible for'. In the context of the debate the latter usage seems more likely than the former.

'Trouble is I trust none of it. Why should I - everyone and their dog admits it contains at least one lie? Only one lie or are there more?'

I'm not sure that the memo contains a lie since it contained the somewhat odd caveat (given that the meeting between the First Minister and French Ambassador was conducted in English) that “I have to admit that I’m not sure that the FMN’s tongue would be quite so loose on that kind of thing in a meeting like that, so it might well be a case of something being lost in translation.”

The only definite lie in the whole affair was that subsequently admitted by Carmichael was his denial that he was complicit in the leak.

'Perhaps they can make some sense out of all this though for me the ship has sailed. I'm sure the good people Carmichael represents will be keen to deliver their verdict (all be it up to five years down the line). I'd try and vote Carmichael out.'

I'm not sure that the civil servant will be called in either inquiry since Carmichael has now, despite, earlier denials, admitted his culpability.

Of course if either inquiry finds that Carmichael is culpable with the terms of The Representation Of the People Act or is suspended from the House for a sufficient period then a by-election might be held . I doubt if Carmichael will voluntarily stand down and seek re-election.

'I fail to understand why? In any event what used to be a part of the country would cease to be.'

At the risk of invoking Godwin's Law I would think the distinction between civic and ethnic nationalism is somewhat obvious.

'By definition the leaving would not be in a spirit of mutual contentment with arguments such as about currency (it's our pound - not it's not it's the UK's) ringing on till the end.'

But its not about 'mutual contentment' its about the obvious difference between a nationalism based on citizenship and one based on 'ethnicity/race'.

'Has this been decided on yet? Unless I'm missing something what is being proposed is that entitlement to vote would be as for the UK General Election under which the mandate to hold an EU referendum was secured?'

As I understand it EU citizens (apart from those from Gibraltar, Cyprus and, curiously, Eire) will not be allowed to vote in the Brexit referendum whereas the were allowed to vote in the Scottish referendum by virtue of being resident in Scotland.

'Stupid idea anyway. My view on the future for devolution is rather different than I've heard being proposed.'


I agree. The obvious answer would be to let the English electorate to vote on whether they want a devolved English parliament with the same powers as the Scottish one but I don't see the Unionist turkeys at Westminster going for it.'


'I'm afraid I can't agree because we have been 'in' for so long any 'fear of change' will work for EU supporters (big business etc.) just like for Scotland and the UK. Folk are small 'c' conservatives - they don't like change they don't want to be cast out. 'Better the Devil you know' and all that.'


I think you may underestimate the power of xenophobia.

'How would this work with fptp?'

I see the relevance to the Brexit referendum.

'It is odd that they were allowed to remain in the party. 'Divided parties don't get elected' used to be the rule? I'd have thought the main reason for the referendum was to spike UKIP's guns?'

A fragmentation merely deferred perhaps until Cameron returns with a few crumbs and announces 'a famous victory' which will fail to placate his Europhobes. Who may then decamp en bloc to UKIP.

bs

Hi Bx4

Hope Edinburgh is treating you well?

Pols

"…"The distinguishing feature of the SNP economic policy is its pledge of a fiscal stimulus. The Ed's of Labour are totally opposed, committed to some wobbly concept of fiscal prudence and sound fiscal policy."…"

So the English voter was being asked to vote Labour. In the event that the polls were right the nice folk from the SNP would put them right on economic policy. If the polls were wrong 'oh well never mind we were going to vote Labour anyway too bad about the austerity'.

"… a minority conservative government who wanted a A Brexit referendum then they would have got it only if a 'coalition' with UKIP and the DUP had given them an overall majority…"

Minority or majority the result would have been the same (provided the manifesto was not to be ignored on this point). There was no 'something better' conditionality.

"… The price was a greater devolution of powers. In what sense would this be a disproportionate disadvantage to England?.."

Not for 'something better'?

"… This presupposes that the English electorate were significantly more influenced by the prospect of a SNP-Labour 'alliance' that they were by Labour's perceived history of economic mismanagement and doubts about Miliband's competence as a Prime Minister…"

Indeed.

"… I don't see how you can assume that it was this proposed alliance' that led to the English not electing Miliband rather than his rejecting of it in favour of his preferred 'Tory Lite' austerity policies…"

I think it.

"… I'm not sure that Miliband had clear policies though he may, given the growing support Corbyn, have profoundly misjudged the appetite of Labour voters for anti-austerity policies advocated by the SNP…"

Fair point. At the time of writing the poll cards are about to be sent out to the electorate. We shall see on September 12 whether Corbyn wins the day.

"… As I pointed out earlier ['allow'] has two quite distinct meanings, 'permit' and 'make it possible for'. In the context of the debate the latter usage seems more likely than the former…"

Not in my view. Otherwise what would be the point of adding 'something better'?

Carmichael

"… The only definite lie in the whole affair was that subsequently admitted by Carmichael was his denial that he was complicit in the leak…"

I like the 'only definite lie'!

"… Of course if either inquiry finds that Carmichael is culpable with the terms of The Representation Of the People Act or is suspended from the House for a sufficient period then a by-election might be held . I doubt if Carmichael will voluntarily stand down and seek re-election…"

I'll go with this.

Civic

"… At the risk of invoking Godwin's Law I would think the distinction between civic and ethnic nationalism is somewhat obvious…"

I think this a rather extreme version of ethnic nationalism you invoke?

"… its about the obvious difference between a nationalism based on citizenship and one based on 'ethnicity/race'…"

Internally the difference would be obvious – no argument there. Externally I don't see it; an independent Scotland would rightly be fighting its corner. (Not necessarily up to and including a Blitzkrieg on Yorkshire).

Years ago I read of beach fights on the costas between youths. Instead of wrapping themselves in the regalia of Arsenal or Manchester United the fights were under the (invisible but heard) banners of Thompson and other package tour operators! Folk attach themselves to entities it matters not whether the label is 'ethnic' or 'civic' – not from outside it doesn't (short of 'full on' Godwin).

Turkeys

"…The obvious answer would be to let the English electorate to vote on whether they want a devolved English parliament with the same powers as the Scottish one but I don't see the Unionist turkeys at Westminster going for it…"

Do you think there is an appetite for this (outside of the turkey sanctuary)?

"…I think you may underestimate the power of xenophobia…"

Quite possibly though still believe the small 'c' conservative pull will be to remain with mummy EU.

"…A fragmentation merely deferred perhaps until Cameron returns with a few crumbs and announces 'a famous victory' which will fail to placate his Europhobes. Who may then decamp en bloc to UKIP…"

I agree about the crumbs. The mass decamp to UKIP is a fantasy.

bs

hi rg

'Hope Edinburgh is treating you well.'

The Fringe is now completely OTT with way to many shows and I have less energy than in my 'yoof' so we have been a bit more selective than heretofore. Still managed some enjoyable shows but more into touching base with friends and family.

'So the English voter was being asked to vote Labour. In the event that the polls were right the nice folk from the SNP would put them right on economic policy.'

No merely support them when they eschewed 'austerity lite' policy.

'If the polls were wrong 'oh well never mind we were going to vote Labour anyway too bad about the austerity'.'

Clearly Ed and his myrmidons in the Millibunker though 'austerity lite' was a vote winner.

'Minority or majority the result would have been the same (provided the manifesto was not to be ignored on this point). There was no 'something better' conditionality.'

If no Tory majority the surely a Brexit referendum would have been conditional on there being able to form a majority coalition with UKIP and the DUP since none of the other parties wanted it.

'Not for 'something better'?'

What would this be?

'Indeed'

I saw a programme on the BBC Parliament Channel of a seminar at Nuffield College called 'Who won the election. how and why?' in which a number academic groups reported on studies of voting patterns. The general thrust was that generally Labour were mistrusted on the economy and that while in the south of England UKIP Tories who had defected to UKIP returned too the Tories but that in the north Labour supporters who had defected to UKIP stayed with the latter. The overall effect was that despite Labour gaining a slightly greater share of the vote the Tories won key marginals. All of the contributors reported the there was no evidence of the suppose 'SNP effect'.

'I think it.'

I got into trouble on Mustardland for asking for /actual/ evidence so I won't belabour the point.

'Fair point. At the time of writing the poll cards are about to be sent out to the electorate. We shall see on September 12 whether Corbyn wins the day.'

I doubt he will; the Labour nomenklatura and their media running dogs are running a 'Project Fear' campaign. If Corbyn wins it might change the political dynamic in Scotland as the election of 'Deputy Disaster' (Eggy Jim's henchwoman won't).

'Not in my view. Otherwise what would be the point of adding 'something better'?'

I suppose to emphasise that support for Labour was contingent on there adopting policies that were better for the ordinary citizen than those Miliband and Ball were advocating.

'I like the 'only definite lie'!'

Meant in the sense that it was the only statement that was definitely established as a lie.

'I think this a rather extreme version of ethnic nationalism you invoke'

My point was that civic nationalism based on citizenship is the antithesis of any form of nationalism based on supposed ethnicity.

'Internally the difference would be obvious – no argument there. Externally I don't see it; an independent Scotland would rightly be fighting its corner.'

Surely true of any nation state irrespective of attitudes to 'ethnicity'.

'Years ago I read of beach fights on the costas between youths. Instead of wrapping themselves in the regalia of Arsenal or Manchester United the fights were under the (invisible but heard) banners of Thompson and other package tour operators! Folk attach themselves to entities it matters not whether the label is 'ethnic' or 'civic' – not from outside it doesn't (short of 'full on' Godwin).'

I think you are describing tribalism/tribal conflicts which may relate to ethnic nationalism (of the sub Godwin BNP/UKIP variety) and your to conflate either with civic nationalism seems disingenuous.

'Do you think there is an appetite for this (outside of the turkey sanctuary)?'

The evidence would suggest not. The English seem largely content to be governed by Westminster perhaps because of its built in majority of English MPs.

'Quite possibly though still believe the small 'c' conservative pull will be to remain with mummy EU.'

Perhaps.

'It is in attitudes to European integration though where the divergence is most striking. In this sample, Londoners and Scots would vote to stay in the EU, while the rest of the country would, narrowly, support leaving.'

http://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/15743#

Though of course those Londoners who are not British, Irish or Gibraltarian are not allowed to vote in the Brexit referendum..

'I agree about the crumbs. The mass decamp to UKIP is a fantasy.'

Need not be a mass decamp. Thiteen defections would do.

I no longer participate in ML but occasionally lurk. I see you are becoming embroiled in the cult of susu.

bs

Hi Bx4

"…The Fringe is now completely OTT with way to many shows…"

Mmm not just the Fringe. Our local 'beach' now has Dismaland http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/24/arts/design/banksys-dismaland-in-england-its-a-strange-world-after-all.html?_r=0 “They’re really good actors,” Ms. King added. “Or they’re just rude.”

"…If no Tory majority the surely a Brexit referendum would have been conditional…"

Conditional/Unconditional – same difference? This was not the case with Labour who were to be "allowed" to rule provided they became "something better." The latter wasn't defined in anything like as clear terms as Farage's referendum on EU membership. To put it bluntly Miliband was belittled on stage in his own country by a nationalist who'd rather have the country split.
"Ed Miliband has clashed with Nicola Sturgeon after she said she would only back him as PM if he rejected austerity and was "better than the Tories". http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32328664 and https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KiFLTzr4ahA

"…All of the contributors reported the there was no evidence of the suppose[d] 'SNP effect'…"
We all have our own views. Personally I abhor the notion of the tail wagging the dog. Perhaps this colours my view?

"…'Project Fear' campaign…" (Corbyn)

I can see what you mean and think that Corbyn has got the lion's share of column inches. So who knows? This is the first Labour leadership poll in a long while that I have not had a dog in the race. "There is no such thing as bad publicity" springs to mind. I'm content to await the result and even then will I care?

"…the only statement that was definitely established as a lie…"

We are talking politics here. The home of the lie.

"…Surely true of any nation state irrespective of attitudes to 'ethnicity'…"

Precisely.

"…to conflate either with civic nationalism seems disingenuous…"

Even civic nationalism has a flag. http://www.sundaypost.com/polopoly_fs/1.133614.1379858106!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/box_620/image.jpg

"…The English seem largely content to be governed by Westminster perhaps because of its built in majority of English MPs…"

Are you so sure that there was no SNP effect on Labour's vote as a result of the former's conditionality on support? Not even with the (I'm not being literal) prospect of Scottish nationalists holding the whip hand?

"…'It is in attitudes to European integration though where the divergence is most striking. In this sample, Londoners and Scots would vote to stay in the EU, while the rest of the country would, narrowly, support leaving.'…"

It's a bit late to worry about this now the referendum was nearly a year ago. As for London perhaps they could become a 'Free City'?

"…embroiled in the cult of susu…"

I love susu you would too if you knew susu too?

bs

hi rg

'Dismaland'

My 'OTT' was a reference to quantity not quality. Not really a fan of the cult of Banksy. Anyhow last weekend hit with 'Fringe fatigue' and have mostly given it a miss since then.

'Conditional/Unconditional – same difference?'

The difference between a Tory majority government and a coalition of the Tories, UKIP and the DUP?

'This was not the case with Labour who were to be "allowed" to rule provided they became "something better." The latter wasn't defined in anything like as clear terms as Farage's referendum on EU membership.'

Indeed, since the two contexts are entirely dissimilar.

' To put it bluntly Miliband was belittled on stage in his own country by a nationalist who'd rather have the country split.'

Only possible because of his adoption 'Tory lite' austerity policies.

'We all have our own views. Personally I abhor the notion of the tail wagging the dog. Perhaps this colours my view?'

Not perhaps wholly consistent with your stated preference for PR which would seem to favour coalitions which necessarily involve comprise.

'I can see what you mean and think that Corbyn has got the lion's share of column inches. So who knows? '

Indeed, though he seems to be the only one who is frequently vilified by the cronies and media running dogs of the other candidates.

' "There is no such thing as bad publicity" springs to mind.'

If so why is 'black propaganda' so common?

'Will I care.'

I don't know. Will you?

'We are talking politics here. The home of the lie.'

Somewhat echoing Sir Malcolm Bruce's 'defense' of Carmichael

'Precisely'

The perhaps not strictly relevant in distinguishing between civic and ethnic Nationalism.

'Even civic nationalism has a flag.'

Presupposes that any one who carries a Saltire (or any other national flag) is necessarily a civic nationalist:

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47851000/jpg/_47851972_batkin6.jpg


'Are you so sure that there was no SNP effect on Labour's vote as a result of the former's conditionality on support? Not even with the (I'm not being literal) prospect of Scottish nationalists holding the whip hand?'

Not sure what this has to do with the generality English voters showing no great enthusiasm for a devolved English parliament. Surely, if there was an 'SNP Effect' in this context support for one would have increased.

'It's a bit late to worry about this now the referendum was nearly a year ago.

No it wasn't. "Londoners and Scots would vote to stay in the EU, while the rest of the country would, narrowly, support leaving." refers to the Brexit not the Scexit referendum.

'I love susu you would too if you knew susu too?'

It was because I did that I bailed out of the cult of personality on that thread.

bs

Hi Bx4

A truncated post – taxi on standby

Part 1

"… quantity not quality…"

I suppose my reference to Dismaland was in much the same vein. We don't have much that happens in our corner of the world that merits a write up in the NYT. So for a few weeks in addition to Cheddar Gorge and the Clifton Suspension Bridge we have The Tropicana reborn.

"… Only possible because of his adoption 'Tory lite' austerity policies…"

I would have been more comfortable if a little more flesh was put on what the SNP were proposing. What was on offer? I think what changed this time round was actual experience of coalition government and the expectation of another period of multiple party rule. The Leader's Debate was the prime time BBC1 opportunity for the protagonists to lay their cards on the table. I felt some drew up shy and an apprehension of the unknown filled a vacuum.

"…preference for PR which would seem to favour coalitions which necessarily involve [compromise]…"

Indeed. That said the election was fought on FPTP and the 'rules' of FPTP applied.

"…[Corbyn] the only one who is frequently vilified by the cronies and media running dogs of the other candidates…"

Likewise Farage though that didn't prevent UKIP from topping the European Parliamentary? What's the old saying 'there's no such thing as bad publicity'? The sort of people voting for Corbyn aren't going to be Daily Mail readers? It helps that the other candidates are invisible.

"…' "There is no such thing as bad publicity" springs to mind.' - If so why is 'black propaganda' so common?.."

Sure negative publicity works. Though whoever was leading the Labour poll was going to be on the receiving end from one quarter or another.

Part 2 follows…

bs

Hi Bx4

Part 2

"...Sir Malcolm Bruce's 'defense' of Carmichael..."

That ['politics is lies'] is not much of a defence? It is a half cocked mitigation whilst saying nothing new about the game let alone the Carmichael affair.

"...Presupposes that any one who carries a Saltire (or any other national flag) is necessarily a civic nationalist..."

It would appear to me that civil nationalists and their supporters are not averse to waving their national flag.

"...Not sure what this has to do with the generality English voters showing no great enthusiasm for a devolved English parliament. Surely, if there was an 'SNP Effect' in this context support for one would have increased..."

I'm not following the argument here. Why would there be more enthusiasm for an English parliament because the SNP try to attach themselves to one party in England? Surely the most effective and immediate response would be to disfavour that party? An English parliament would take longer to set up than the time the punter allocates to marking their cross.

"..."Londoners and Scots would vote to stay in the EU, while the rest of the country would, narrowly, support leaving."..."

If this is the case why on Earth didn't Scotland vote for independence when she had the chance lest risk this outcome? Personally I doubt there will prove to be anywhere in the UK to be found in favour of leaving the EU. If the outcome was in the hands of the pollsters then that would be a different matter. (That said I realise folk appear to treat opinion polls as if they were as valid as an actual referendum result).

"...I bailed out of the cult of personality on that thread..."

I've been too embarrassed to go back.

bs

hi rg

'That ['politics is lies'] is not much of a defence? It is a half cocked mitigation whilst saying nothing new about the game let alone the Carmichael affair.'

I suspect there are those in the LibDems and the defunct Coalition who fear that Carmichael might spill the beans if kicked of the gravy train.

'It would appear to me that civil nationalists and their supporters are not averse to waving their national flag.'

Indeed but it does not thereby follow that everyone who waves a national flag is a civic nationalist.

'I'm not following the argument here. Why would there be more enthusiasm for an English parliament because the SNP try to attach themselves to one party in England? '

Obvious, I would have thought, if the English voters is so opposed to the Scottish MPs having a say on 'purely English matters' then the obvious solution is to establish an English parliament.

'Surely the most effective and immediate response would be to disfavour that party?'

Except of course that the SNP MPs, unlike their Scottish unionist counterparts never have voted on 'purely English matters' so I am unclear why an offer of a 'progressive alliance' would bring 'disfavour' upon the Labour Party.

' An English parliament would take longer to set up than the time the punter allocates to marking their cross.'

'Really? A Scottish Parliament was functioning less than two years after the 1997 devolution referendum; hardly an excessive lead time.'

Perhaps because the independence referendum was held in 2014 before the Tories included Brexit in their 2015 manifesto.

' If the outcome was in the hands of the pollsters then that would be a different matter. (That said I realise folk appear to treat opinion polls as if they were as valid as an actual referendum result).'

I wonder if the same skepticism applies to polls on the outcome of referendums as it does to those on general elections. I can't see that their would be a 'quiet Tory/UKIP' effect. Althouugh voting intentions in the 2014 referendum changed over time the majority proved to be reasonably accurate. Similarly their predictions as the the outcome of the AV referendum were reasonably accurate.

'embarrassed'

I only ended up on 'Maths...Oh Dear!' when the 'fragrant' susu shifted a post of mine about conditional probability/quadratic equations on another to her thread. It took me a little while to decide it was not for me until I realised that it was more about attention seeking than about Maths. I was reminded of a 60s song by Country Joe and the Fish "Not So Sweet Martha Lorraine" :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3JgP8_P4dE

or if you cant hear it here's the lyrics.

http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/c/country_joe_and_the_fish/not_so_sweet_martha_lorraine.html

I came across this from Broon the Doom:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34103122

and this from the ever flexible 'Deputy Disaster':

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11836275/Jeremy-Corbyn-has-a-lot-to-offer-admits-Scottish-Labours-new-leader-Kezia-Dugdale.html


Just realised I've replied to your Pt.2 but not Pt. 1. Tomorrow

bs

Hi Bx4

Good to hear from you so soon. I'm away to my pit so won't reply at just this moment; this is just to touch base (other to express intrigue that "Carmichael might spill the beans" - no please do spill Mr Carmichael).

bs

Hi Bx4

"...spill the beans if kicked of the gravy train..."

Some fifty Liberal Democrats fell off the carousel presumably 'fifty shades of orange' will be on the shelves at Amazon for Christmas?

"...it does not thereby follow that everyone who waves a national flag is a civic nationalist..."

So who are these people? Presumably not SNP? A dark force on riding the coattails of the Yes campaign?

"... if the English voters is so opposed to the Scottish MPs having a say on 'purely English matters' then the obvious solution is to establish an English parliament..."

Though are they? I'd thought it some silly Tory thing that The Mail latched on to? I am not aware of a groundswell of support for an English parliament. Personally I am not a fan of lopsided devolution though openly acknowledge that I'm probably in a minority of one! This is not the same thing at all as a deal being struck with Nationalists to 'allow' a runner up to rule.

"...the SNP MPs, unlike their Scottish unionist counterparts never have voted on 'purely English matters..."

There was talk of the SNP changing this approach. There has also some discussion of what does and does not constitute a Scottish matter.

"...A Scottish Parliament was functioning less than two years after the 1997 devolution referendum; hardly an excessive lead time..."

Two years longer than the time taken to place an 'X' on a general election ballot paper in a way so as to oppose any possibility of Labour SNP rule. Miliband's 'death warrant' was signed the moment the SNP made it clear that they wouldn't deal with The Tories.

"...the Tories included Brexit in their 2015 manifesto..."

This was hardly a surprise given the inclusion of a referendum on the EU Constitution in their 2005 manifesto? There was a further commitment in their manifesto regarding the extension of EU powers in 2010.

"...Similarly their predictions as the outcome of the AV referendum were reasonably accurate..."

In which case those worried about this and wishing a secure future in the EU should have voted Yes in 2014. That said I humbly doubt any part of the UK would vote against Cameron on EU membership (which he supports). It's not as if the issue wasn't brought up during the independence campaign.

Maths

I agree with your take on this and have continued to be absent from class. Actually they lost me on some point or other; life's too short and other fish to fry. BTW thank you for posting a link to the lyrics. YouTube works only intermittently hereabouts. Today was not a tube day.

"...The next 12 months could determine the long-term fate of the union between England and Scotland..."

Rather cynically (as usual?) my thought was that a man who looked like a Stingray puppet was sounding like the 'anything can happen in the next half hour' voiceover. Naturally it was all The Conservatives fault. Perhaps he is right? Too late now though that said I suspect the long grass isn't so far away so far as 'English votes' is concerned.

Corbyn

I was surprised to hear this morning that 1/3 of votes have yet to be cast in Labour's leadership poll.

bs

hi rg

'Some fifty Liberal Democrats fell off the carousel presumably 'fifty shades of orange' will be on the shelves at Amazon for Christmas?'

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/1/1d/Orange_Book.jpg/200px-Orange_Book.jpg

'So who are these people? Presumably not SNP? A dark force on riding the coattails of the Yes campaign? '

Presumably of the same ilk as the dark forces riding on the coat tails of the 'No' campaign.

'Though are they?'

Depends to what extent the 'West Lothian Question' matters to the average English voter.

'I'd thought it some silly Tory thing that The Mail latched on to?'

Rather a wheeze by the Tories to make it more difficult for Labour to form an effective majority government in England.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11333011/William-Hague-admits-English-Votes-for-English-Laws-would-thwart-future-Labour-government.html

'I am not aware of a groundswell of support for an English parliament.'

Nor am I.

'Personally I am not a fan of lopsided devolution though openly acknowledge that I'm probably in a minority of one!'

Apparently 53% of the English electorate want one though non of the Unionist parties at Westminster do.

'This is not the same thing at all as a deal being struck with Nationalists to 'allow' a runner up to rule.'

Isn't it the nature of coalitions, formal or informal to do this?

'There was talk of the SNP changing this approach.'

Indeed, see tories attempt to deconstruct the foxhunting ban.

'There has also some discussion of what does and does not constitute a Scottish matter.'

Apparently Speaker ofthe HoC who will decide on what is an English only matter.

'Two years longer than the time taken to place an 'X' on a general election ballot paper in a way so as to oppose any possibility of Labour SNP rule.'

Of course the simpler explanation is that the English electorate did not judge Miliband/Labour competent to govern.

'Miliband's 'death warrant' was signed the moment the SNP made it clear that they wouldn't deal with The Tories.'

Yet Miliband immediately made it clear that he wouldn't do a deal with the SNP.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/30/ed-miliband-snp-opposition-question-time-election

'This was hardly a surprise given the inclusion of a referendum on the EU Constitution in their 2005 manifesto?'

An (abandoned) commitment to a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty was not about the choice or remaining in the EU or not.

'In which case those worried about this and wishing a secure future in the EU should have voted Yes in 2014.'

Strange then that the meme being promoted by 'Project Fear' was that a 'Yes' vote would have had the opposite effect.

'That said I humbly doubt any part of the UK would vote against Cameron on EU membership (which he supports).'

If the 2014 referendum sowed anything it showed that support for a proposition can change dramatically over the course of a campaign.

' It's not as if the issue wasn't brought up during the independence campaign.'

The issue that came up was the issue of an indepedent Scotland's membership of the EU not the rUK's membership.


'I agree with your take on this and have continued to be absent from class.'

As do I though many seem to boost their egos by 'helping' susu out. Oddly on the original 'Maths..Oh Dear!' she claimed to have a GCSE in Maths.

'Actually they lost me on some point or other; life's too short and other fish to fry'

Some explanations are confusing some are wrong.

'Rather cynically (as usual?) my thought was that a man who looked like a Stingray puppet was sounding like the 'anything can happen in the next half hour' voiceover.'

Perhaps your cynicism is a by-product of your intense dislike of the messenger.

' Naturally it was all The Conservatives fault. Perhaps he is right?'

Well he has continued his theme:

'“The Government [is] falling short on the delivery of the recommendations of the Smith Commission on Scottish Devolution and the case for action is enhanced if the government is unwilling to listen to alternative views,”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34103122

A view shared by the cross-party committee of the Scottish Parliament who agreed the final version of the Smith Commission report.

'Too late now...'

Well, it furthers the argument for another Scottish independence referendum.

'...though that said I suspect the long grass isn't so far away so far as 'English votes' is concerned.'

I'm not sure about the current status of EVEL though Grayling apparently was called a few days ago to attend the Westminster Procedures Committee to answer their questions.

http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/procedure-committee/inquiries/parliament-2015/english-votes-for-english-laws/

'I was surprised to hear this morning that 1/3 of votes have yet to be cast in Labour's leadership poll.'

The whole campaign seems to have been chaotic though I did watch the announcement jamboree and found the reactions of the losers and their running dogs vastly entertaining.

The Scottish Labour Leader, 'Deputy Disaster' was in attendance and flexibly changed her position from:


Jeremy Corbyn victory in the UK contest could reduce Labour to carping on the sidelines for years.

to:

"Today shows politics has changed. People are calling for radical change and straight talk. Jeremy's election shows that the party has listened to that call, and I look forward to working with him and meeting him to discuss his priorities later today."

Still, having opted for the 'branch office' model the volte face is no surprise.

bs

Hi Bx4

"..Presumably of the same ilk.."

Not your Elk then?

More later just off out..

bs

Hi Bx4

Chickened out of going out. It's lashing down!

"…'So who are these people? Presumably not SNP? A dark force on riding the coattails of the Yes campaign? ' - Presumably of the same ilk as the dark forces riding on the coat tails of the 'No' campaign…"

Clear as mud. We don't know who the flag wavers were.

"…Depends to what extent the 'West Lothian Question' matters to the average English voter…"

We won't find out the current mood until an actual vote on a devolved issue is 'tipped' by Scottish votes. Till then what can we consult – opinion polls?

"…Rather a wheeze by the Tories to make it more difficult for Labour to form an effective majority government in England…"

The same thing could happen should English devolution come to pass.

"… Apparently 53% of the English electorate want [an English Parliament?]"

I'm surprised. I'd have thought the Liberal Democrats would have run with this. Here comes a bandwagon.

"… Isn't it the nature of coalitions, formal or informal to do [strike deals]?.."

Indeed though we don't do coalitions. Least wise the last time we had one the second party was trashed in the subsequent election.

"…Apparently Speaker ofthe HoC who will decide on what is an English only matter…

I think I'm with you on EVEL. There needs to be a proposal put to the electorate. The 'Speaker decides' plan is half cocked.

"… the simpler explanation is that the English electorate did not judge Miliband/Labour competent to govern…"

Ah though there is no video to demonstrate that. I think I know by now that we disagree on the point of the 'offer to allow' made during the Challenger's Debate, which to my mind at least, played out a Tory election poster.

"…Yet Miliband immediately made it clear that he wouldn't do a deal with the SNP…"

He did though to no avail as Joe Public can do sums. Interestingly Sturgeon repeated the offer on Corbyn's victory. I don't have his reaction to hand.

"…An (abandoned) commitment to a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty was not about the choice or remaining in the EU or not…"

It wasn't allowed to play out so we don't know if the UK would have been edged towards the door.

"… the meme being promoted by 'Project Fear' was that a 'Yes' vote would have had the opposite effect…"

I think you mean that the No campaign argued that an independent Scotland would have to reapply for EU membership?

"…support for a proposition can change dramatically over the course of a campaign…"

It could however the inertia sits with remaining.

"…The issue that came up was the issue of an indepedent Scotland's membership of the EU not the rUK's membership…"

You mean UK in the sense that a No vote would leave Scotland as part?

"Salmond warns 'Brexit vote' biggest threat to Scotland's EU membership" May 20, 2014 http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/20/uk-scotland-independence-eu-idUKKBN0E00GT20140520 (the referendum not taking place till September 18, 2014)

"… Some explanations are confusing some are wrong…"

I know what you mean!

"…Perhaps your cynicism is a by-product of your intense dislike of the messenger…"

Broon the Doom? Not a fan I admit to that.

"…“The Government [is] falling short on the delivery of the recommendations of the Smith Commission on Scottish Devolution and the case for action is enhanced if the government is unwilling to listen to alternative views,”…"

My personal view is that as the Tories have already been accused of reneging they might as well offer nothing.

"…it furthers the argument for another Scottish independence referendum…"

Makes little difference there was always going to be another? Some excuse would be found (perhaps not even yet thought of today). Like Sturgeon said the other day; a referendum would be held when it looked as if victory could be secured.

"…The whole campaign seems to have been chaotic though I did watch the announcement jamboree and found the reactions of the losers and their running dogs vastly entertaining…"

I listened on my 1950s radiogram. It seemed appropriate.

"…having opted for the 'branch office' model the volte face is no surprise…"

True.

That said an independent Labour party would have to be truly independent in the sense that in the HoC it could without sanction organise itself to vote against the England and Wales party.

bs

PS in case you missed it I liked Barndoor's Elk reference the other day.