h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

Hi rg

'trouble'

Started with captchas (hate 'em) then wouldn't recognise my id/password. finally contacted the 'gurus' ('No researcher left behind.') who sorted me out. Then in the middle of writing a reply lost the lot. Rats! Recomposed offline Using Notebook Notebook.

Anyhow I have finally retired declining to 'a few days consultancy a month' which proved to be a slippery slope last time. Although we have not had the same amount of snow that much of the UK has had (Many yellow/amber alerts though none in the Great Wen or its environs hence no announcement of 'snow chaos' by the Beeb) but fairly unpleasant here - too cold to bike, sail or windsurf to warm to skate - the Alsters remaining liquid.

So I have been catching up on my reading, currently Jonathan Raban's 'Arabia' a continuing to transfer my LPs and CDs to my Brennan, Currently completed Rock so only Jazz, Blues, Folk and Classical to go!

'Diabetes card'

I think Type 1 is much worse than the Type II which I have though it can have complications its fairly easy to manage with a combination of exercise, the right diet and medication. Fortunately no injections!

'flu'

I hope you have recovered. I saw a report on the 'Endless News' that there has been an an usually high number of deaths from flu, particularly amongst the elderly, in the UK this winter:

http://www.theweek.co.uk/health-science/62392/flu-and-the-cold-blamed-for-increase-in-deaths-this-winter

Quite surprised by this as here everybody over 60 is entitled to a free vaccination and I thought it was similar in the UK except it is the over 65s.

'a rethink'

To some extent:

'Speaking on the Andrew Marr show, Ms Sturgeon also said it would be "perfectly legitimate" for SNP MPs to vote on matters such as the English health service or taxation as they had a "direct knock-on effect" on Scotland's budget.'

However this is not without precedent as the SNP has occasionally voted against 'socially regressive' legislation like increases in English university tuition fees. Somewhat ironic that the erstwhile 'Tartan Tories' have are more left-wing than NuNuLabour or the 'Real Opposition'.

'an appetite for constitutional change in England'

Well Cameron's 'English votes for English laws' might be somthing of a constitutional change though a some problematic one. See for example the report of the McKay Commission report 'On the consequences of devolution for the House of Commons', particularly section 1.3

Of course the real answer would be to set up an English parliament with the same devolved powers as the Scottish Parliament has but as you say there seems to be little appetite amongst the English electorate for it and without it I don't see the HoC voting for it.

' EU presents itself as a more likely election vote winner (or loser).'

As I've said the attitude to the EU is quite different Scotland from that in England though I'm not really clear how much support there is for a Brexit in England. Clearly the Tories (and perhaps NuNuLabour) have taken fright at the 'success' of UKIP but I think Cameron's ploy of an 'in/out referendum in 2017 may result in an unintended Brexit.

'recollection of Grandma Bigot'

Sky making a meal of it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMTnvtZro7U

' The issue remains unsettled until independence is achieved.'

I think Project Fear hoped that the No vote would put the independence issue to bed for a generation. Seems they were wrong.

'Yet the 1972 LGA specifically places it in Wales begging the question - why bother if it already was?'

Presumably to scotch the prevalent myth that it was in England. See Laws in Wales Act 1535 Section II:

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/aep/Hen8/27/26/contents

and note date of repeal of this act.

' They even consider looking outside for representation? '

I'm not sure that the local constituency parties had much say in the matter.


'a better SNP showing than in 2010.'

To some extent an artifact of the pernicious FPTP system. The popular vote was distributed as follows:

Labour: 42% (41 seats) SNP: 19.9% (6 seats) Liberal Democrats 18.9% (11 seats) Tories 16.7% (1 seat)

'More to the point the 'solution' doesn't have traction with the electorate'

Indeed. So 'English votes for English laws' it is.

' What of the UK? I'd thought this was voted for even in rebellious Scotland?

Indeed. Though perhaps not the UK of the status quo ante.


'Brains Brewery'

Apparently the first Coffee#1 cafe was located in Wood Street Cardiff.

'Burns Night'

Never been a fan of of our 'national bard' though Mr. Y like many Russians is. Burns night is weird since, despite Burns being a Lowlander, it has been 'kiltified'. Of course I did not eschew a few glasses of Ardbeg at Hogmanay.-;

'Broadchurch'

Missed the first series so having trouble with the current one. Recorded 'Spiral' but still unwatched.

Hope you are now recovered.

bs

Hi Bx4

Man Flu: Thank you for asking about this – it is in the past now. I had a flu jab a couple of years back and promptly got the flu. Never again. My annual invitations to attend the clinic are noted and forgotten. I suppose it serves me right that I was bitten this year though I suspect my strain of ‘man flu’ would have remained untouched by the NHS’s vaccine. I hope you are well? I’m glad that you have the ‘lesser’ form of diabetes though this doesn’t diminish my regret that you have the disease at all. I’m pleased however that you have a plan to manage it.

Computer Trouble: As inferred previously my current aggravation is ‘normal’ E-mail wherein I find myself boxed in and unable to edit within a reply. My ‘work around’ is to compose off-line before cutting and pasting and hoping for the best before checking the ‘sent’ tab to see what has actually gone out! Still I’m pleased that h2g2 managed to sort out your log-in otherwise this would have become a rather quiet corner of the internet.

Retirement: Enjoy it! My sense is that you have more than enough interests so that you do not miss work. Personally I don’t (miss work) though there still aren’t enough hours in the day. I’ve been archiving photographs and as these reach back to the 1930s (those that far back were inherited) it will take a while. I came across some snaps from Hamburg (2003) and Danzig (1934) yesterday. The weather has been too damp and cold to encourage me to take to the road.

‘Ms Sturgeon also said it would be "perfectly legitimate" for SNP MPs to vote on matters such as the English health service or taxation as they had a "direct knock-on effect" on Scotland's budget’: I can understand this and it is perfectly logical in the context of today. Though of course a solution is to break the link between English spending and the size of Scotland’s budget. Instead of formula use need as the basis of determining Scotland’s share.

‘more left-wing than NuNuLabour or the 'Real Opposition'’: Indeed. I thought this the most compelling reason for Scotland to vote ‘Yes’ last September. Scotland had a different political outlook than the rest of the UK and so deserved to plough its own furrow its own way. A pity then that the Scottish electorate didn’t agree and/or were taken in by a ‘far away’ London ‘vow’ that their own elected leadership implored them to reject.

‘Cameron's 'English votes for English laws' might be somthing of a constitutional change’ – Pie in the sky I’m afraid. What chance Cameron will be PM come May? Maybe pigs will fly?

‘I think Cameron's ploy of an 'in/out referendum in 2017 may result in an unintended Brexit’ – Similarly pie in the sky! More little hoofers. Labour have made it clear again this week that there will be no referendum (unless there is treaty change). Clearly they are relying on there being few alive who remember let alone care about 2005.

‘Sky making a meal of it’ – I don’t get Sky any more so won’t be directly influenced by their tomfoolery approach to political journalism. See also their treatment of Chuka Umunna. (I’d provide a link though I couldn’t find the right one with my cross thumbed ability to search the ‘YouTube’).

‘I think Project Fear hoped that the No vote would put the independence issue to bed for a generation’ – If they truly believed this then they were truly mistaken.

‘Presumably to scotch the prevalent myth that it was in England’ – Why bother; either it was or it wasn’t? If it wasn't there was no need to single it out and the treatment should have been the same as for every other 'Welsh county'. Also is an Act of Parliament the place myths are scotched? I suppose there’ll be a section on dragons? If not why not?

‘I'm not sure that the local constituency parties had much say in the matter’ – Speaks volumes about how ‘different’ the SNP are as opposed to centrist London parties.

‘an artifact of the pernicious FPTP system’ – Indeed.

‘Apparently the first Coffee#1 cafe was located in Wood Street Cardiff’ – I once visited here in the morning and was served by the same member of staff in Chepstow (25 miles away) in the afternoon! (Apparently she was a supervisor type person who travelled from branch to branch).

‘'Broadchurch' … Missed the first series so having trouble with the current one’ – I’m not surprised! The series has been panned. I must have weird tastes for am (mostly) enjoying it. I don’t understand why the personal lives of the barristers need to be explored. I’m also ‘lost’ in Spiral though continue to enjoy that too. I notice the male lawyer was shot dead a week or so back. Time to find a new love interest for the lady lawyer. Yes it’s that basic.

‘Ardbeg at Hogmanay’ – Good for you!

bs

hi rg

"my strain of ‘man flu'"

Some of the articles I read on the unusual number of cases in england this year suggested that this was due to mutations in the original strain of flu at which the vaccinations were targeted but your 'immediate flu' might be due to bad luck in that you might have been infected before you were immunised.

'a plan'

I seem to have been unusual in that I had no obvious symptoms and it was only discovered by accident when the nurse at my

clinic mentioned that a urine sample I had given for an unrelated problem ( a kidney infection it transpired) showed

elevated blood sugar levels. An subsequent HbA1c confirmed type II diabetes but I had none of the symptoms:

http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/Diabetes-type2/Pages/Symptoms.aspx

Even 'passing of more urine than usual' was caused by the kidney infection. Apart from taking the metformin tablets I am

supposed to exercise and watch your diet. Fortunately my blood pressure and chlosterol levels were normal and as I exercise

regularly it came down to diet. Mostly this is just monitoring the 'hidden sugar' content of foods.

'computer troubles'

Not quite sure what you mean. I use three separate email services and I have never had the problem.

' a solution is to break the link between English spending and the size of Scotland’s budget.'

The problem here would be that despite 'the vow' the Scottish parliaments tax raising powers and decisions on benefit

spending still are largely reserved to the UK parliament.

'the Vow'

" By unveiling – and talking up so dramatically – the “devo-max” option, which will transfer almost all significant domestic

powers to Scotland in the event that independence is rejected,"

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100286169/ed-miliband-and-gordon-brown-havent-saved-the-union-but-they-may-have-

killed-the-labour-party/

'[T]alking up' "devo-max" with rhetoric about 'Home Rule' and 'federalism' may have changed the minds of enough voters so

that independence was rejected. Given the further watering down of the proposals of the Smith Commission which already fell far short of either the resentment of those who thought they were voting for 'devo max' will grow as they realise they were sold a pig in a poke.

'Pie in the sky I’m afraid. What chance Cameron will be PM come May? Maybe pigs will fly?'

I am still not persuaded that Miliband's (given the increasingly 'presidential' nature of general election campaigns) image

will give him an overall majority especially if he loses a significant number of Scottish seats. Equally though I am not wholly persuaded the 'tribal labour' vote in Scotland will not re-assert itself.

'Sky'

I must confess that I have never watched Sky News online. The 'Broon' clip was on Youtube. I mostly watch Sky Atlantic and

their Arts Channels. The latter seem to be making a bid to oust BBC 4 as purveyor of Nordic non-noir drama.

'their treatment of Chuka Umunna'

I'm not sure that the situations are equivalent the 'Broons' comment was made when he thought he was off air. Umunna was asked the question on air. Given that Fat Eric's inane letter was hot topic of the day. Anyone with real political savvy would have anticipated the question and read the letter beforehand. Of course my unsympathetic attitude may be somewhat

due to his being of the 'Blue Labour' tendency.

' If they truly believed this then they were truly mistaken.'

They did and they were.

http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article3607

I know Fourth International.....

'Why bother; either it was or it wasn’t? If it wasn't there was no need to single it out and the treatment should have been

the same as for every other 'Welsh county'.'

Not quite:

"Although the original Act of 1535 specifically includes Monmouthshire as being in the 'Country or Dominion of Wales', the

Laws in Wales Act 1542 enumerates the Welsh counties as twelve in number, omitting Monmouthshire from the count.

Monmouthshire was made directly responsible to the courts of Westminster rather than falling under the Court of Great

Sessions in Wales. According to historian John Davies, this arrangement was the cause of the erroneous belief that the county

had been annexed by England rather than remaining part of Wales.'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monmouthshire_%28historic%29#Ambiguity_over_Welsh_stat

' I’m not surprised! The series has been panned.'

I had rather thought the BBC was indulging in the fashionable game of a 'mid-season break' since the understanding the second series seemed predicated on having seen the first. Hence my confusion. Once I got over that I quite liked it. Apparently it was only episodes 2 and 3 were panned though much of this seems to have been nitpickery of the highest order.

' I notice the male lawyer was shot dead a week or so back'

Spoiler alert! Actually not since I had caught up with the recorded episodes. I am glad Mme Karlsson is again free. I enjoyed this series more than the last despite cliche of Laure gradually going all broody over over 'le bébé' (aka 'the bump') and Gilou going all paternal.

BBC4 seems to be following this with an Israeli Offering 'Hostages' which I have not watched. On Sky Arts DR's 'The Legacy' has been succeeded by the Swedish ' 30 Degrees in February'.

bs

Hi Bx4

"…bad luck in that you might have been infected before you were immunised..."

Well yes. Perhaps going to a place where there were a lot of people awaiting flu vaccine wasn't such a good idea. Perhaps I should at least have worn a mask (or even my Arai). Also dash those mutations.

Accidental discovery of diabetes

I think you were both unfortunate and fortunate. You were unfortunate to find yourself with the disease and fortunate to be able to take action even before symptoms became apparent. The list you attached was informative though, for a hypochondriac like me, another sort of torture. I agree about the scourge of 'hidden sugar' which is a menace.

"…'computer troubles'…"

I suspect a fight between Adblock and the advertisers plays out on my screen. Well strictly speaking not my screen as mine is broken and I dare not mess about too much. The lack of scrolling ability is a nuisance capable of work around.

"…'[T]alking up' "devo-max" with rhetoric about 'Home Rule' and 'federalism' may have changed the minds of enough voters so that independence was rejected. Given the further watering down of the proposals of the Smith Commission which already fell far short of either the resentment of those who thought they were voting for 'devo max' will grow as they realise they were sold a pig in a poke…"

Yes though it's not as if the electorate weren't warned loudly in advance of the poll. Also did they learn nothing after 2005 and 2010?

"…will give [Miliband] an overall majority especially if he loses a significant number of Scottish seats. Equally though I am not wholly persuaded the 'tribal labour' vote in Scotland will not re-assert itself…"

Not long to wait now so I'll refrain from idle speculation on this one. I did hear that Cameron's worst nightmare was a Labour/SNP alliance. Careful what you wish for Dave.

"…'Sky'…"

I don't have it and there is no online viewing whatsoever for me without broadband. The Chuka Umunna clip was shown on the BBC. That he didn't read up on what we thought was a hot topic whilst having being invited to discuss another subject is of interest to the voter. On reflection perhaps he should have held his ground better. After all politicians are there to be mocked and ridiculed.

[From link]' Project fear denies Scottish independence '

That was the electorate. It is fanciful to expect a fair political contest where everyone plays nice. Seriously does that happen anywhere? Maybe in heaven.

[Quoting] "…According to historian John Davies, this arrangement was the cause of the erroneous belief that the county had been annexed by England rather than remaining part of Wales…"

An 'erroneous belief' so powerful that it took four centuries before the map was fixed. I had to laugh the other day when I caught the start of a WW1 anniversary programme which features a map of the British mainland in the titles showing Monmouthshire on the English side of the border.

"…Spoiler alert!..."

I'm very sorry I got it into my head that you weren't watching Spiral! I'll not mention the end of Broadchurch lest you are planning to catch up.

"… going all broody over over 'le bébé' (aka 'the bump') and Gilou going all paternal…"

To be honest I think the show resembled a farce by this point.

I've also passed on Hostages. I might indulge in some Fat Wallander DVD viewing whilst manfully resisting the wine bottle next to the kettle.

I got annoyed when renewing my bike insurance because the broker wanted to charge me for using a credit or debit card. 'That's sharp practice not allowing the customer to settle for the price quoted in the renewal letter' I complained and the charge was dropped – at least for this year.

bs

hi rg

'a lot of people awaiting flu vaccine'

I thought the idea of this type of vaccination was more preventative than intended to treat actual flu symptoms.

'Also dash those mutations.'

Of course, ,if there were no mutations there would be no us!

'I suspect a fight between Adblock and the advertisers plays out on my screen.'

Not a problem for me as my e-mail providers don't support ads.

'Yes though it's not as if the electorate weren't warned loudly in advance of the poll. Also did they learn nothing after 2005 and 2010?'

Well 45% of the electorate weren't fooled though I haven't seen any figures on those who voted 'No' in the hope of getting home rule or federalism as compared to those who voted 'No' to maintain the status quo.

'Not long to wait now so I'll refrain from idle speculation on this one. I did hear that Cameron's worst nightmare was a Labour/SNP alliance. Careful what you wish for Dave.'

I have a friend who lives in England who got a piece of Tory election bumf through the door which claimed that a vote for Labour in England guaranteed a Labour/SNP coalition. Ironically Jim the Egg is claiming that a vote for the SNP in Scotland would result in a Tory victory.

' After all politicians are there to be mocked and ridiculed.'

Especially, perhaps, those who don't make the effort to keep up with breaking news.

'That was the electorate.'

i think you are being somewhat over-literal. It's difficult to counter heavy black propaganda when the majority of the media including the 'unbiased' (har! ha!) BBC Scotland were running dogs of the 'Better Together' campaign.

'it took four centuries before the map was fixed.'

The formal ‘foundation date’ for the Ordnance Survey is usually taken to be June 1791,but its origins lie further back. What some taken to be the starting point is a survey of Scotland at one inch to 1000 yards (1:36,
000) executed between 1747 and 1755'

http://www.charlesclosesociety.org/files/HistoryOSGB.pdf

So I am not wholly clear where your 'four centuries' comes from. For example see John Speed's 1610 map of Wales:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-re5OhSsSXbY/Ug_tJFhNKmI/AAAAAAAAAMI/LZSVAXQufyA/s1600/Wales+1610.jpg

' I got it into my head that you weren't watching Spiral!'

I was recording it and fortunately decide to watch it before your spoiler so no harm done.

'Broadchurch'

I have recorded the second series but think I will defer watching it until the first series is repeated.

'sharp practice'

Well done you for resisting this demand.

Meanwhile a somewhat odd story about Jim the Egg

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-31668270

Rumour has it the no constituency Labour MSP was willing to commit hara kiri for him.

bs

Hi Bx4

"I thought the idea of this type of vaccination was more preventative than intended to treat actual flu symptoms." – Indeed. I suppose the trouble is that doctor's surgeries and hospitals are full of sick people. So turn up for a shot only to be ambushed by stray bugs just before the needle punctures the flesh.

"my e-mail providers don't support ads" – When I had a computer of my own it mattered not for the Ubuntu rendition of Adblock worked seamlessly. In fact I had no idea there were ads until I was obliged to borrow machine(s). Stop press – A new version of ad blocker is being loaded now!

"45% of the electorate weren't fooled though I haven't seen any figures on those who voted 'No' in the hope of getting home rule or federalism as compared to those who voted 'No' to maintain the status quo" – The result was dependent on a simple 'Yes or No' vote. I know some wanted a third option though this never happened. Maybe next time?

Meanwhile what are we left with – exit polls and after polls to salami slice the "No" vote? So that's 45% Yes, 20% voting for the UK as it was in August and 35% for some other form of UK regardless of what the rest of the UK wanted? So that's a victory for "Yes" because the next option got the vote of 10% less of the poll?

"It's difficult to counter heavy black propaganda when the majority of the media including the 'unbiased' (har! ha!) BBC Scotland were running dogs of the 'Better Together' campaign" – All part of the game. 'Yes' knew perfectly well how the table looked when they decided to press on with the referendum. It is hardly a surprise to find a UK broadcaster reliant on a UK wide tax may be perceived to side with the UK? As implied earlier there's no such thing as a fair fight.

"a vote for Labour in England guaranteed a Labour/SNP coalition" – Mmm

"a vote for the SNP in Scotland would result in a Tory victory" – Mmm

"[all politicians are there to be mocked and ridiculed] Especially, perhaps, those who don't make the effort to keep up with breaking news" – That's what we really want – pundits to sit in news studios to feed 24 hour news with incisive, contrary and scathing comment. Never mind the pretence the politician is invited on for. Let's make them look stupid by asking them about other stuff which catches our fancy. Even more so if the clowns stomp off on live TV!

"So I am not wholly clear where your 'four centuries' comes from. For example see John Speed's 1610 map of Wales" – Oh that's easy - from your post 2123 which appears to imply that the "Laws in Wales Act 1542" was somehow responsible for the "erroneous belief" that Monmouthshire was in England. So April 1,1974 (the coming into law of the 1972 LGA and the OS maps showing Monmouthshire in Wales for the first time) less 1542 gives 430 years or four centuries or so.

The mystery deepens with your 1610 map. What were the OS playing at 'Monmouthshire was in Wales; look see this 1610 map' - trouble makers? Also there remains the 1972 Act itself and its references to Monmouthshire. " (12) In this section “England” does not include the administrative county of Monmouthshire or the county borough of Newport. " http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1972/70 - is this a clarification as a result of an "erroneous belief" or a new order brought about by the 1972 Act itself reflected by HMG's map maker relocating the border line to the East thereafter? I know we differ in opinion on this point. I have a 1972 1" paper map which even Wikipedia can't change. You'll gather I trust that source no further than I can throw it.

"I have recorded the second series but think I will defer watching it until the first series is repeated" – Say no more. A nod's as good as a wink.

[from link] " "When elected as leader he made it clear he was 'not attracted' to the idea of being an MP and an MSP at the same time - so would he intend only serving the people of East Renfrewshire for a year at Westminster if he gets elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2016?"" – Look at it this way he'd be honest in the same manner Blair was less than so about paving the way for Brown by resigning 2/5 of the way into his 'full term'. Yes I know it was a smart move all the same. I wonder who Miliband is resigning for?

"the Egg" - I'd still like to see all politicians egged – especially the ones caught not keeping up with the news. It would make good telly.

bs

hi rg

A bit time poor at the moment so I,ll reply tomorrow

Quite fascinated by Project Fear 2 as the Unionist panjandrums work themselves into a state over the highly improbable opinion poll. The biters bitten!
bs

Hi bx4

Which poll?

I just saw this:

"...In a joint response to Lord Grade's comments, the broadcasters said they were "trying to deliver debates because we know our audiences want them"..."In 2010 they were watched by more than 20 million people and our research suggests there is an appetite for them in 2015. We have issued invitations to seven party leaders and we continue to hope they will all agree to take part," they added..."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31830651

What they mean is the debates were watched by 6 million (they added the figures for all three debates together). 'The broadcasters' - strangers to truth.

bs

hi rg

'...doctors surgeries...stray bugs..'

Indeed. One of the reasons I have assiduously avoided them for most of my life. Unfortunately my increasing decrepitude means that this is no longer an option.

'...adblocker..'

I used to use an adblocker for the generality of internet sites but I don't think I have ever seen it on the e-mail service providers I use - my ISP and two Bloatware variants. I think my antivirus software has an automatically updated adblocker so I don't see ads elsewhere either.

'The result was dependent on a simple 'Yes or No' vote. I know some wanted a third option though this never happened. Maybe next time?'

Indeed. My pointwas that althugh Cameron refused to have a two question referendum, independence or devo-max, the late panicked reaction to a single poll meant the Unionist panjandrums wheeled in 'The Vow'('effective home rule') in the last few weeks of the campaign. Therefore it is impossible to determine the proportion of 'No' voters who were voting for devo-max rather for the status quo ante.

'some other form of UK regardless of what the rest of the UK wanted?'

"La perfide Albion" - It was not the SNP who muddied the waters but rather the Unionist panjandrums who brought in 'The Vow' in act of desperation at the end of the campaign.

'It is hardly a surprise to find a UK broadcaster reliant on a UK wide tax may be perceived to side with the UK?'

"The Agreement accompanying the BBC Charter requires us to do all we can to ensure controversial subjects are treated with due impartiality in our news and other output dealing with matters of public policy or political or industrial."

(BBC Editorial Guidelines: Section 4: Impartiality)

"In strands, due impartiality should normally be achieved within individual programmes, or across a specific number of explicitly editorially linked programmes."

(ibid)

'-Mmm...-Mmm'

Project Fear II (my last link) seems to be a response to this poll;

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e07b4a74-c2aa-11e4-a59c-00144feab7de.html#axzz3UGmqYoVe

which would result in a near wipeout for Labour in Scotland. Of course I find this outcome highly unlikely but it has prompted these gems:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e07b4a74-c2aa-11e4-a59c-00144feab7de.html#axzz3UGmqYoVe

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e07b4a74-c2aa-11e4-a59c-00144feab7de.html#axzz3UGmqYoVe

As I said I think hat the SNP WILL hold the balance of power but its nice to see the panic spreading.

Monmouthshire

I'll leave this for the moment. I want to do a bit more research.

'Never mind the pretence the politician is invited on for. Let's make them look stupid by asking them about other stuff which catches our fancy. Even more so if the clowns stomp off on live TV!'

Imho, any politician who believes he will not be asked to comment on 'hot topics' in addition to what he is is being invited to comment on must be considered ingenuous and lazy at best and profoundly stupid and lazy at worst'

'"so would he intend only serving the people of East Renfrewshire for a year at Westminster if he gets elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2016?"'

Of course he might not be elected MP for East Refrewshire in 2015. Easier to become an MSP because all he has to do is to get himself put at the top of the 'party list' as the unlamented Johan Lamont did.

'Which Poll'

This one:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Scottish-constituency-poll-report-February-20153.pdf

'What they mean is the debates were watched by 6 million (they added the figures for all three debates together). 'The broadcasters' - strangers to truth.'

Indeed the statement should have been preceded by 'In aggregate' but I doubt that the BBC has a grasp of the finer points of arithmetic.

bs

Hi bx4

I hope you are well enough to keep out of that germ infested doctor's surgery for the most part.

"...adblocker..."

I'm looking to resurrect an old machine so I can get back to a clean environment. I did look at new kit though can't justify the expense for what I'd use it for. The lack of broadband right now also causes me to pause.

"...although Cameron refused to have a two question referendum, independence or devo-max, the late panicked reaction to a single poll meant the Unionist panjandrums wheeled in 'The Vow'('effective home rule') in the last few weeks of the campaign. Therefore it is impossible to determine the proportion of 'No' voters who were voting for devo-max rather for the status quo ante..."

I have a couple of thoughts on this. The first is that as a voter (if I had a vote) I could only answer the question on the paper in front of me. What you appear to suggest is that a 'No' would be on the understanding that 'the vow' would be delivered. My problem with this is that the signatories never had the power to deliver. At best they could promote the vow - only parliament could enact.

What is amazing to me is that you appear to trust the vow whilst I trust the SNP...

http://news.sky.com/story/1336501/salmond-leaders-vow-a-desperate-offer

"...Alex Salmond has dismissed "the vow" from the leaders of the three main parties for more powers for Scotland as a "last-minute desperate offer of nothing"...The Yes campaign has said that voters would not be fooled into voting to stay in the UK by the promise of greater powers and questioned why they had not been on offer before...Both Mr Salmond and his deputy Nicola Sturgeon seized on Nick Clegg's backtrack over tuition fees to prove that the Westminster men could not be trusted..."

[Quoting] "due impartiality should normally be achieved within individual programmes, or across a specific number of explicitly editorially linked programmes"

Presumably the SNP have placed a complaint with the broadcasting authorities regarding bias? It is a serious allegation.

FT links: I'm afraid I can't do these anymore (my screen locks up) though get the gist.

I've picked up on snatches from Daily Politics and This Week that suggest Labour won't rule out a coalition with the SNP. I think this is so as to annoy the ETs. Though my personal opinion is that there is more likelihood of a grand coalition; this is because whoever got into bed with the SNP would be ill regarded throughout England. I could be wrong on this point - as said - it's a personal view.

"...Imho, any politician who believes he will not be asked to comment on 'hot topics' in addition to what he is is being invited to comment on must be considered ingenuous and lazy at best and profoundly stupid and lazy at worst'..."

Fair enough. I think viewers are capable of deciding for themselves whether a line of questioning is reasonable. That said I respect any politician who declines to answer. That's their privilege. We can of course judge them on this.

"...Of course he might not be elected MP for East Refrewshire in 2015. Easier to become an MSP because all he has to do is to get himself put at the top of the 'party list' as the unlamented Johan Lamont did..."

Very good point.

"...Indeed the statement should have been preceded by 'In aggregate' but I doubt that the BBC has a grasp of the finer points of arithmetic..."

In their defence it wasn't just them.

bs

hi rg

'...keep out of that germ infested doctor's surgery...'

Only go for tests.

'I'm looking to resurrect an old machine so I can get back to a clean environment.'

I find the problem with resurrecting old machines is that it is quite difficult to source compatible components.


'I did look at new kit though can't justify the expense for what I'd use it for. The lack of broadband right now also causes me to pause.'

If my memory doesn't mislead me you are in Gloucestershire so this link may be helpful:

http://www.fastershire.com/where-when/why-dont-i-have-it-yet

'The first is that as a voter (if I had a vote) I could only answer the question on the paper in front of me. What you appear to suggest is that a 'No' would be on the understanding that 'the vow' would be delivered

My point was that 'the vow' reintroduced devo-max so one cannot conclude that everyone who voted 'No' were voting for the status quo ante as the Unionists seem to have grasped.

"But we [Cameron and Clegg] have also been clear that the Scottish people did not vote for the status quo. They voted for more decisions to be taken in Scotland, as part of a fair and enduring constitutional settlement across the UK. And that is what a new Scotland Bill will achieve in the next Parliament."

'My problem with this is that the signatories never had the power to deliver.'


"The leaders of the other main political parties and I promised extensive new powers for the Scottish Parliament – a vow – with a clear process and timetable. And now, here we have it: new powers for Scotland, built to last, securing our united future." (David Cameron)

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/all-party-promise-of-new-powers-for-scotland-delivered

'At best they could promote the vow - only parliament could enact.'

The government can and has published draft legislation and started the process to implement it. Of course one cannot guarantee that parliament will agree. Should they not a the Scottish government would no doubt hold another referendum.

'What is amazing to me is that you appear to trust the vow whilst I trust the SNP..'

Since I voted 'Yes' I was indifferent to it.

'Presumably the SNP have placed a complaint with the broadcasting authorities regarding bias? It is a serious allegation'

Not just the SNP and it is serious:

http://ponsonbypost.com/index.php/comment/6-how-the-bbc-stole-the-referendum

'
I've picked up on snatches from Daily Politics and This Week that suggest Labour won't rule out a coalition with the SNP'

I believe Milliband has now done so. A bit late perhaps as Nico Sturgeon ruled it out about two weeks ago.

' Though my personal opinion is that there is more likelihood of a grand coalition; this is because whoever got into bed with the SNP would be ill regarded throughout England. I could be wrong on this point - as said - it's a personal view.'

I still doubt whether the SNP will oust sufficient Labour MPs to make it Likely. But if it were to happen the then it is all to the good as the 'ganging up' of English 'Unionists' against the SNP would only increase pro-independence sentiment in scotland.

'A very good point.'

Interestingly Ruth Davidson was also elected from her party's list.

'In their defence it wasn't just them.'

"The arithmetical incompetency of the many does not justify the arithmetical incompetency of the one." [Mr Spock (attrib.)]

Btw the sign in page of h2g2 has an article on the formation of the Ordnance survey.

bs

Hi Bx4

"…the problem with resurrecting old machines is that it is quite difficult to source compatible components…"

Indeed though the first hurdle is to try and access the BIOS; at least that's what I think I'm trying to do in order to change the boot order. The difficulty I have is that I no longer have a CRT monitor and the LCD keeps wanting to sleep just as I want to click Alt+F2. Holding the keys doesn't work. I'll have a go another day.

The broadband link – Thank you that's thoughtful of you; indeed my exchange area is listed for a 'by the end of 2015' 2Mbps service. Ironically I only yesterday unsubscribed from E-mails as I'd got fed up of reading about how well the rollout was going (seemingly for everyone else and their dog). Still not long to wait till the end of 2015.

Scotland

I think we agree on the outcome though place different emphasis on the markers. The referendum last September was not the last referendum on Scottish independence.

"… one cannot conclude that everyone who voted 'No' were voting for the status quo ante…"

Indeed though who is going to complain about it? Not the SNP surely – " The Yes campaign has said that voters would not be fooled into voting to stay in the UK by the promise of greater powers " [link above]? Dismiss Westminster leaders as liars before the vote only to depend on their word afterwards – is this credible?

There is no way to salami slice the No vote after the event unless we resort to polls. If we rely on such dark arts then why go to the expense of a vote in the first place? We are at best left with an 'unknown known'.

"…But we [Cameron and Clegg] have also been clear that the Scottish people did not vote…"

You are quoting the two amigos who are least likely to remain leaders of their parties come May?

"…Of course one cannot guarantee that parliament will agree. Should they not the Scottish government would no doubt hold another referendum…"

On the last point we are agreed. I'd go on to argue that a referendum should be a plank in the SNP (2016?) manifesto in any event as insurance.

"…Since I voted 'Yes' I was indifferent to [the vow]…"

We don't know how many trusted the UK party leaders over the SNP on the latter's dismissal of the vow. I see it as a campaign tactic. I therefore side with the SNP on this point.

"…[Presumably the SNP have placed a complaint with the broadcasting authorities regarding bias?] It is a serious allegation…"

From your link "The Vow took on a life of its own. It wasn't long before the entire Scottish media were portraying the 'document' as a meaningful pledge of more powers and a significant contribution to the independence debate. Voters would find out after the vote that the vow was in fact completely worthless." Doh really? Didn't the SNP say as much *before* the poll?

What is not clear is whether the SNP Government is pursuing the BBC through the courts?

That said I agree with the conclusion to chapter 1 "The actions in the final two weeks of the referendum, although brazen and somewhat shocking, were not entirely unexpected" which appears to make my point that lie of the ground was known before the starting gun was fired. It's no good complaining that we were brought down by a steep hill in the road when our OS map (thanks for the pointer) told us it was there all along.

A Labour SNP Coalition

Whilst this has been ruled out a 'confidence and supply' deal has not (least wise not by Miliband).

"…if it were to happen the then it is all to the good as the 'ganging up' of English 'Unionists' against the SNP would only increase pro-independence sentiment…"

Agreed though the alternative would be a SNP tail wagging the UK dog - not a good look.

"The arithmetical incompetency of the many does not justify the arithmetical incompetency of the one." [Mr Spock (attrib.)]"

Indeed though when caught with ones pants down there's no harm in pointing out that those other boys who would be king also have their cacks out.

"…Only go for tests…"

Be thankful – even tests can induce trauma.

bs

hi rg

'...the LCD keeps wanting to sleep just as I want to click Alt+F2.'

Can't say this is a problem that I have never encountered. I have abandoned monitors entirely now, though three redundant ones now languish in the keller. All my desktop machines are 'plumbed into' HD Ready or HD TVs.

'...2Mbps..'

lit has somewhat improved of late we had a 2Mb/s for a few years on the island and it was OK as long as one doesn't have a penchant for major downloads (movies, etc) Her we have been upgraded to an ;up to 50Mb/s' service which far exceeds my 'umble needs.

'Still not long to wait till the end of 2015.'

Indeed and I hope there are no further delays.

'... not the last referendum on Scottish independence.'

Indeed. The Unionist rhetoric about 'independence being put to bed for a generation was remarkably short lived.

'Dismiss Westminster leaders as liars before the vote only to depend on their word afterwards – is this credible?'

I think those who dismissed the Unionist panjandrums before the referendum probably voted Yes' that some who voted 'No' believed that devo max would be delivered seems credible albeit mistaken.

'There is no way to salami slice the No vote after the event unless we resort to polls.'

I am less sceptical of polls with a robust methodology and effective stratified sampling than you are.

'If we rely on such dark arts then why go to the expense of a vote in the first place?'

I am not sure that statistically robust sampling of populations is a 'dark art' but they are only a mall sample of the voting population rather than the population itself.

I am touched by your faith in the Millipede but though Clegg might go I am less persuaded that Cameron will. My link was to a legislative process introduced by the current executive of which you hero is not a part. However;

https://commonspace.scot/articles/153/miliband-home-rule-bill-my-first-piece-of-legislation-in-power

'On the last point we are agreed. I'd go on to argue that a referendum should be a plank in the SNP (2016?) manifesto in any event as insurance. '

Indeed though imho it should noy simply be a Yes/No choice.

'We don't know how many trusted the UK party leaders over the SNP on the latter's dismissal of the vow. I see it as a campaign tactic. I therefore side with the SNP on this point.'

'Doh really? Didn't the SNP say as much *before* the poll?

Yes but the SNP supporters are only par of the Scottish electorate.

'What is not clear is whether the SNP Government is pursuing the BBC through the courts?'

The vow was published by the Daily Record not the BBC

' we were brought down by a steep hill in the road when our OS map (thanks for the pointer) told us it was there all along.'

But it wasn't since the 'The Vow' was in response to a supposed late surge in support for independence:

http://www.itv.com/news/2014-09-06/scotland-on-course-to-vote-yes-shock-poll-reveals/

'Whilst this has been ruled out a 'confidence and supply' deal has not (least wise not by Miliband).'

Nor earlier by Sturgeon.

'Agreed though the alternative would be a SNP tail wagging the UK dog - not a good look.'

Though given the Tories abject failure in Scotland neither is the opposite.

'Indeed though when caught with ones pants down there's no harm in pointing out that those other boys who would be king also have their cacks out.'

Of course this presumes they other boys are in a similar state of deshabille.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11494238/Ed-Miliband-flounders-after-David-Camerons-VAT-pledge.html


Having missed the Rolling News for a few days i had not realised that the odious thug Jeremy the Timid has got his jotters. Hurrah!

bs

Hi Bx4

"...The Unionist rhetoric about 'independence being put to bed for a generation was remarkably short lived..."

"If you remember that previous constitutional referendum in Scotland - there was one in 1979 and then the next one was 1997. That's what I mean by a political generation. "In my opinion, and it is just my opinion, this is a once in a generation opportunity for Scotland." http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/292026-alex-salmond-referendum-is-once-in-a-generation-opportunity/ Personally I've always thought why not keep holding a poll as often as we like till the right result is given?

"...I think those who dismissed the Unionist panjandrums before the referendum probably voted Yes' that some who voted 'No' believed that devo max would be delivered seems credible albeit mistaken..."

The claim was "voters would not be fooled into voting to stay in the UK by the promise of greater powers and questioned why they had not been on offer before" (link above) did Salmond make clear that he was only referring to SNP (and co party) voters? What was credible was Salmond's point about tuition fees through he should in all honesty have used the example of the undelivered EU referendum from 2005 as all three Westminster parties would have been snared.

Furthermore we have the spectacle of Yes supporters complaining on behalf of No supporters on the grounds of a vow which anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of parliamentary procedure would know to be worthless. A bill had not been passed into law let alone debated.

"...Clegg might go I am less persuaded that Cameron will..."

You clearly missed the "two terms" interview!

Miliband looks more secure though not everyone is happy "SNP Deputy Leader Stewart Hosie responded by saying Miliband could be “reported under the Trades Description Act” for claiming the devolution proposals amount to home rule for Scotland." (Your link). There still is the matter of parliament agreeing.which of course is the case with any vow, pledge or promise.

"...imho [the next referendum] should not simply be a Yes/No choice..."

Who would you intend to sign up for the third choice? Sure not any of those snakes in Westminster?

"...The vow was published by the Daily Record not the BBC..."

I think we are at cross purposes as I was thinking of alleged bias in the BBC with regard to reporting the referendum campaign? Are the SNP pursuing the BBC over this?

"...'The Vow' was in response to a supposed late surge in support for independence..."

It was always known that it wasn't going to be a fair fight and rabbits out of hats in response to apparent poor polling were always part of the arsenal. Politicians will say anything to win. I keep coming back to 2005. Where's my referendum?

Tails and dogs - The only way for Scotland to always have the government she votes for is to vote Yes to independence. From an English perspective whilst the SNP could prop up a government I'm unsure this would be welcome in much the same way that Scotland doesn't welcome Evil Tory administrations.

"...the odious thug Jeremy the Timid..."

It will be interesting to see what the BBC do next though for me the programme should be rested. There are plenty of other car shows. Old Top Gear even featured bikes (though not so much in a lampooning way).

bs

Hi rg

Just got back from a week's impromptu sailing in the Baltic with no access to internet or meeja so I'm not really au fait with much of the pre-election 'news'.

'once in a generation opportunity.'

Subtext: "Vote 'No' and no independence referendum for at least a quarter century"

' Personally I've always thought why not keep holding a poll as often as we like till the right result is given?'

The Irish model?

'The claim was "voters would not be fooled into voting to stay in the UK by the promise of greater powers and questioned why they had not been on offer before" (link above)

Sorry I can't see this quote in your link.

'Furthermore we have the spectacle of Yes supporters complaining on behalf of No supporters on the grounds of a vow which anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of parliamentary procedure would know to be worthless. A bill had not been passed into law let alone debated.'

Assuming that not everyone who voted 'No' were voting for a return to the status quo ante then if the 'parcel o' rogues' at Westminster fail to deliver on 'the vow' then another independence referendum would be on the cards.

'You clearly missed the "two terms" interview!'

Let me rephrase. It seems unlikely to me, contrary to your view (?), that the labour Party will be in the position to form a majority government after the next election.

'Miliband looks more secure....'

Why?

' "SNP Deputy Leader Stewart Hosie responded by saying Miliband could be “reported under the Trades Description Act” for claiming the devolution proposals amount to home rule for Scotland." '

Seems reasonable...

'There still is the matter of parliament agreeing.which of course is the case with any vow, pledge or promise.'

Indeed. Remember 'a pledge is not a promise' (Baldy Man 1) so I don't suppose we should put much faith in a vow either. All to the good for a future referendum.

'Who would you intend to sign up for the third choice? Sure not any of those snakes in Westminster?'

It's win-win for the SNP in a future referendum. if the perfidious clones at Westminster vote against including a 'Home rule' option in a future referendum they won't be able to wheel out another vow in response to a last minute poll.

'I think we are at cross purposes as I was thinking of alleged bias in the BBC with regard to reporting the referendum campaign? Are the SNP pursuing the BBC over this?'

And be accused of 'sour grapes'? better to rely on vox populi:

https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/independent-enquiry-into-bbc-bias-regards-scottish-independence-referendum

'It was always known that it wasn't going to be a fair fight and rabbits out of hats in response to apparent poor polling were always part of the arsenal.'

Something of an overreaction to a single (outlier) poll, imo.

'Politicians will say anything to win. I keep coming back to 2005. Where's my referendum?'

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/oct/04/referendum-lisbon-treaty-cameron-johnson

Let down by President Klaus....

'The only way for Scotland to always have the government she votes for is to vote Yes to independence. From an English perspective whilst the SNP could prop up a government I'm unsure this would be welcome in much the same way that Scotland doesn't welcome Evil Tory administrations.'

Technically it an evil Lib Dem/Tory coalition and perhaps the days of single party administrations are over.


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/nov/04/david-cameron-referendum-campaign-over

'It will be interesting to see what the BBC do next though for me the programme should be rested. There are plenty of other car shows. Old Top Gear even featured bikes (though not so much in a lampooning way).'

I hardly ever watched it in any of its incarnations but I found the odd one I watched during the Clarkson era incomprehensible:

"Thirteen years since it was relaunched with Clarkson at the helm, the programme has reached a level of stylistic singularity that renders it almost indecipherable to the casual viewer. Scripted interplays straight out of Made In Chelsea mingle with Sky Travel-esque tourist guides and Wacky Races-style visual gags, while soaring drone-shot sequences and an overbearing use of filters lend even the most perfunctory of scenes the feel of a late-90s John Woo film."

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/apr/04/top-gear-patagonia-special-dvd

Quite! But I will always treasure:

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/09/24/article-0-02C3D68C00000578-851_468x640.jpg

Broadchurch: Apparently the BBC is/will be showing an American remake called Gracepoint which somewhat curiously also stars David Tennant. Apparently the story line is unusually faithful to the original. I had thought of watching it as an alternative to waiting for a repeat of Broadchurch Series 1. Sadly the fidelity did not apply to the ending which has been changed.

bs

Hi Bx4

"...Subtext: "Vote 'No' and no independence referendum for at least a quarter century"..."

Almost; "If you remember that previous constitutional referendum in Scotland - there was one in 1979 and then the next one was 1997. That's what I mean by a political generation. "In my opinion, and it is just my opinion, this is a once in a generation opportunity for Scotland." 18 and 17 years if my maths is right. Next stop 2030? http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/292026-alex-salmond-referendum-is-once-in-a-generation-opportunity/

"...Sorry I can't see this quote in your link..."

The claim was "voters would not be fooled into voting to stay in the UK by the promise of greater powers and questioned why they had not been on offer before"
My fault I should have referenced it instead of simply writing "link above"
http://news.sky.com/story/1336501/salmond-leaders-vow-a-desperate-offer (in Post 2130)

"...Assuming that not everyone who voted 'No' were voting for a return to the status quo ante then if the 'parcel o' rogues' at Westminster fail to deliver on 'the vow' then another independence referendum would be on the cards...."

I agree with the premise though struggle to see how the Yes side could do the complaining having already claimed that "voters would not be fooled into voting to stay in the UK by the promise of greater powers"? I think it somewhat precious of Yes given that we still await an EU referendum ten years on from the manifestos (dare I suggest the solemn vows) of the day. Note these were in party manifestos not a newspaper.

"...they won't be able to wheel out another vow in response to a last minute poll..."

Don't you believe it. Cameron has the brass neck to offer a referendum in 2017. The sad thing is I think he's right to in his calculation that he'd be believed.

"...better to rely on vox populi..."

86,000 this morning - some way off the SNP membership number let alone those asking for Clarkson not to be sacked.

"...Technically it an evil Lib Dem/Tory coalition..."

I agree though I was referring to Evil Tory administrations in general.

"...It seems unlikely to me, contrary to your view (?), that the labour Party will be in the position to form a majority government after the next election..."

I get this though still think Miliband will win outright. The little parties will remain in number roughly as they are; all be it with a different mix. The Evil Tories will lose seats to Miliband. Of course I could be proved wrong; I know the God like divining power of opinion polls are ranged against me. I'm such a heretic.

"...perhaps the days of single party administrations are over..."

We shall soon see. I gather from an MSN headline that the SNP have made an offer to Miliband though I've not read up on it yet.

"...Gracepoint..."

I saw this was being pushed on an as for an ITV channel I can't watch. A chocolate teapot springs to mind.

How was The Baltic? I gather you were at sea the whole time without landing? I've found some good roads around the Forest. The irony is that I've discovered them through one of my usual routes being dug up. Rock on Gloucestershire highways.

bs

hi rg

"In my opinion, and it is just my opinion, this is a once in a generation opportunity for Scotland."

'...and it is just my opinion..' would seem to be the relevant phrase since it does not constitute a commitment by the SNP not to hold a referendum until a (political) generation has passed.

'18 and 17 years if my maths is right.


Or 16 years:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/15/scotland-voting-age-lowered-16-17

which would make it 2031.

However Sturgeon said that she had ruled out an earlier referendum unless there was 'a material change in circumstances' such as for example a Brexit referendum where the overall vote was for a UK exit but the Scottish vote was to stay in.


'The claim was "voters would not be fooled into voting to stay in the UK by the promise of greater powers and questioned why they had not been on offer before'

Perhaps one should not treat the rhetoric of politicians as statement of fact. However, I don't think any reliable studies have been done on the number of people who voted 'No' on the basis that they were being offered considerably more devolved powers rather than simply the status quo ante that was all that was on offer before 'the vow'

'I agree with the premise though struggle to see how the Yes side could do the complaining having already claimed that "voters would not be fooled into voting to stay in the UK by the promise of greater powers"?'

You refer to a quote made by Alec Salmond in the run up to the referendum and seek to represent it, without any justification, as the views of the 'Yes side'.

'I think it somewhat precious of Yes given that we still await an EU referendum ten years on from the manifestos (dare I suggest the solemn vows) of the day. Note these were in party manifestos not a newspaper.'

Again I would point out that the statement was not a collective one made by 'yes' voters. However the relevance of Blair, and later Cameron, reneging on manifesto commitments regarding the Constitutional Treaty or The Lisbon Treaty is somewhat obscure.

'Don't you believe it. Cameron has the brass neck to offer a referendum in 2017. The sad thing is I think he's right to in his calculation that he'd be believed.'

I believe the Lords has blocked the EU (Referendum) Bill so presumably it would have to be re-introduced after the May election which would require a Tory majority or Tory-UKIP coalition (the 'Real Opposition' having claimed they would not support it).

'86,000 this morning - some way off the SNP membership number let alone those asking for Clarkson not to be sacked.'

Not sure what the size of the SNP membership has to do with the number of people signing the petition nor what the relationship you see in the two petitions. I imagine Top Gear has a different demographic than BBC Scotland news/current affairs and I doubt may Scots are fans after his 'all tramps' moment.

'I get this though still think Miliband will win outright. The little parties will remain in number roughly as they are; all be it with a different mix. The Evil Tories will lose seats to Miliband. Of course I could be proved wrong; I know the God like divining power of opinion polls are ranged against me. I'm such a heretic.'

Indeed albeit the meeja and the big parties seem to be getting themselves in a bit of a state about one or other 'little party'.

There was an odd comment on one of the BBC's election programmes the SNP has replaced UKIP as the 'little party' that is getting greater meeja attention than UKIP. Whatever, I found this article quite interesting:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2015/apr/08/englands-arrogant-nationalism-gift-snp

'I gather from an MSN headline that the SNP have made an offer to Miliband though I've not read up on it yet.'

Perhaps this:

" if there is an anti-Tory majority in the House of Commons after the election, even if the Tories are the biggest party we will work with Labour to keep David Cameron out of Downing Street."

Meanwhile:

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/82197000/jpg/_82197132_debtie.jpg

"I saw this was being pushed on an as for an ITV channel I can't watch."

I am continually impressed by the depth of the technological black hole in which you dwell.

'A chocolate teapot springs to mind."

http://www.plokta.com/plokta/issue23/teapot.htm

However:

http://www.itv.com/news/2014-09-08/experts-crack-the-problem-of-the-chocolate-teapot/

'How was The Baltic?

Great.

'I gather you were at sea the whole time without landing?'

Not quite but we created our own black hole by taking no technology that would connect to t'internet thingy.

'I've found some good roads around the Forest. The irony is that I've discovered them through one of my usual routes being dug up. Rock on Gloucestershire highways.'

Glad you are enjoying your newly discovered sylvan by-ways but beware that the GCC is not planning to further your technological isolation buy turning the highways into rutted mud tracks.

https://c2.staticflickr.com/4/3508/3283570043_5a4c5118f9.jpg

bs

Hi Bx4

"...turning the highways into rutted mud tracks.."

The thought of this made me jump on the bike straight away to see that the newly discovered route was still intact. Mercifully it was and an ambient temperature of 20.5°C suggested maybe next time to remove the quilted jacket lining. There were a fair number of other bikes about including a large trike. The rider waved a walking stick at me which I took to be a friendly wave.

"...which would make it 2031..."

Surely no one is going to quibble about 2030 or 2031? The previous campaign had a two year gap between Edinburgh Agreement and poll. There appears to be enough float for either year to be considered reasonable?

"...Sturgeon said that she had ruled out an earlier referendum unless there was 'a material change in circumstances' such as for example a Brexit referendum..."

Leaving aside that the 'generation' gap between polls is a self made construct; the 'Brexit' looks more unlikely with each God given opinion poll (all bow). Presumably non delivery of the 'vow' would be serious enough on its own to merit a rush to the polls? Or how about an increase in fuel duty, air passenger duty or any other change under the sun - would these also qualify? If not why not?

"...Perhaps one should not treat the rhetoric of politicians as statement of fact..."

The difficulty I see here is that a politician's rhetoric is never forgotten by their enemies. It would be dragged up in any debate in regard to the merits of any future poll. Whether Joe Public would be as unsympathetic is another matter.

"...I don't think any reliable studies have been done on the number of people who voted 'No' on the basis that they were being offered considerably more devolved powers rather than simply the status quo ante that was all that was on offer before 'the vow'..."

We are back to salami slicing the 'No' vote presumably by interviewing a sample of "No" voters (how can we be sure they voted 'No'?) in order to make a case for a re-run.

"...You refer to a quote made by Alec Salmond in the run up to the referendum and seek to represent it, without any justification, as the views of the 'Yes side do..."

Perhaps Sturgeon is to lead the charge?

"...the SNP has replaced UKIP as the 'little party' that is getting greater meeja attention than UKIP..."

I gather that the UKIP opinion poll rating has collapsed, whilst recent polls also suggested there was a chance that the SNP would be in a position to cut some sort of deal with Labour. So yes the SNP rightly deserve the spotlight. One fly on the ointment from what I can see the SNP appear to want to 'lock Cameron out of Downing Street'. Does this commit the SNP to support Labour no matter what (else an election could result)? Could Labour therefore do as they pleased knowing the SNP would never risk having the Evil Tories back through a poll forced at an inconvenient time? I realise there'd be hoops.

I agree with much of the Guardian link though disagree with the conclusion. The English will 'speak about England' when they are ready to. I fail to see why Scotland doesn't hold another referendum on independence in the meantime. That's where the action is.

The Murphy snap raised a smile. He looked more comfortable when he was egged. It is a shame about the chocolate teapot as am now detached from a favourite expression.

Meanwhile happy sailing/riding

bs

hi rg

'...tracks...'

A move from Straße to tracks Gelände would suit your bike to a tee.

'...walking stick...'

Was he in motion at the time?

'...quibble...'

We might be wildly out if we accept the biological definition of a human generation:

"the term of years, roughly 30 among human beings, accepted as the average period between the birth of parents and the birth of their offspring"


'..'Brexit' looks more unlikely with each God given opinion poll (all bow).'

I think you might over egging the pudding a bit:

".... a strange clutch of polls there – two Conservative leads, three Labour leads. Lots of the other interesting looking findings are almost certainly noise – Lib Dems are doing well in ComRes, but it’s not reflected anywhere else. UKIP are up in TNS, but down in Survation and no movement elsewhere."

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

'Presumably non delivery of the 'vow' would be serious enough on its own to merit a rush to the polls?'


"Meanwhile YouGov also have a new Scottish poll, conducted after the first Scottish leaders debate and straddling the second one. Westminster voting intentions there are CON 18%(+2), LAB 25%(-4), LDEM 4%(+1), SNP 49%(+3). As ever, only one poll, but it looks as if any debate impact in Scotland has helped the SNP. Certainly, with only a month to go it shows no sign whatsoever of the SNP lead fading."
(ibid)

To be honest I don't know what is producing this phenomenon of Scottish Labour's implosion. Probably a combination of factors including the realisation in the Scottish (Old) Labour heartlands that the New Labour nomenklatura and their Milibandian successors have done little for the people of Scotland even though many Brown, Darling, Reid, Murphy etc.

Of course it may be a a bit of a wind-upon the part of the Scottish voter, a sort of reverse Project Fear.

I'm not really persuaded that some sort of alliance with Labour and the SNP is very likely even if there is a Labor wipeout occurs in Scotland, in the event that Labour doesn't have an overall majority but is the biggest party then I'm sure the ever flexible Real Opposition will leap into the breach.


I know we are both skeptical of polls but even assuming a modicum of reliability the pernicious FPTP system used in Westminster elections means that popular support does not necessarily translate into seats won. In 2010, the SNP had 19.9% of the popular vote compared to the Liberal Democrats 18.9% but the latter won 11 seats to the former's 6.

'Presumably non delivery of the 'vow' would be serious enough on its own to merit a rush to the polls?'

Since we don't know what percentage of those who voted 'No' did so on the basis' of the substantially greater devolution 'pledged' in the 'vow' I don't think we can assess the implications of non-delivery.

'Or how about an increase in fuel duty, air passenger duty or any other change under the sun - would these also qualify? If not why not?'

If the Smith Commission report is implemented the level of APD set in Scotland would be devolved to Westminster.Setting of fuel duty is not. As I pointed out earlier Nicola Sturgeon has said that only a 'material change' in circumstances such as a differential vote n a Brexit referendum would prompt an early commitment to another referendum.

'The difficulty I see here is that a politician's rhetoric is never forgotten by their enemies. It would be dragged up in any debate in regard to the merits of any future poll. Whether Joe Public would be as unsympathetic is another matter.'

This may be of little relevance as Salmond is no longer leader of the SNP and if elected to Westminster has said he will not seek to lead the party there.

'We are back to salami slicing the 'No' vote presumably by interviewing a sample of "No" voters (how can we be sure they voted 'No'?) in order to make a case for a re-run.'

Afaik, the SNP are not seeking a rerun on the basis of the 'vow'.

'Perhaps Sturgeon is to lead the charge?'

The Yes Campaign was not coterminous with the SNP nor was it run by them.

'I gather that the UKIP opinion poll rating has collapsed, whilst recent polls also suggested there was a chance that the SNP would be in a position to cut some sort of deal with Labour. So yes the SNP rightly deserve the spotlight.

Indeed though how fickle the meeja who so recently sought to portray UKIP as a 'major party'.

'One fly on the ointment from what I can see the SNP appear to want to 'lock Cameron out of Downing Street'. Does this commit the SNP to support Labour no matter what (else an election could result)? Could Labour therefore do as they pleased knowing the SNP would never risk having the Evil Tories back through a poll forced at an inconvenient time? I realise there'd be hoops.'

As I understand the situation the SNP, having seen the fate of the Liberal Democrats in the current coalition, will not enter into one with Labour but will opt for something looser; either a 'confidence and supply arrangement' or ad hoc support on a 'case by case' basis

'I agree with much of the Guardian link though disagree with the conclusion. The English will 'speak about England' when they are ready to.'

Hasn't the talk started with Slick Dave's English votes for English laws'.



'The Murphy snap raised a smile. He looked more comfortable when he was egged.'

Perhaps in that instance, he was not enthused by the mantra. Better Together.....

' It is a shame about the chocolate teapot as am now detached from a favourite expression.'

Well you still have the chocolate fireguard...


bs

Hi Bx4

"...tracks Gelände..."

I do a mixture of running though mostly asphalt. Off road stuff would be better on lightweight machine IMO. Oddly the four pot Rice Eater was (with rose tinted glasses aided memory) much more capable at low speed uphill? I like the lower centre of gravity on BB and it cornered better at all speeds from the go. Did I mention I tried an 800? It felt top heavy and underpowered at low speed. Having said all that I'm drawn to the asphalt only FJR1300.

"...Was [the stick waver] in motion at the time?.."

Yes I suppose he was. He'd just dismounted as I'd pulled up at nearby lights.

Generations - Salmond implied (in years) that he meant 18 or 17 from which I got 16 by progression and school said 25 compared to 30 from your good self. Mobile phone generations are somewhat shorter still - perhaps that's what he was thinking of?

"...I think you might over egging the pudding a bit..." [Brexit]

Not one of the polls you quote suggests an Evil Tory victory. UKIP won't have more than an odd seat so where is the Brexit coming from? I'm still unsure what (besides Brexit) would tip Sturgeon toward pushing for another independence vote. "Material Change" seems like an 'all things to all men (and women)' concept.

"...a bit of a wind-upon the part of the Scottish voter, a sort of reverse Project Fear..."

Indeed. The SNP look set for a famous victory. I'm truly uncertain what the implication of a collapse of the Labour vote would mean. Would Miliband really agree to a casual deal with the SNP with the latter deciding to support Labour on a vote by vote basis? As said earlier my instinct is that a Grand Coalition is on the cards. The Evil Tory campaign has been noticeably lacklustre thus far; it's almost as if they didn't want to win. Witness the Pickles bloke on Daily Politics. He really gave off the impression that he simply wasn't bothered. Can the Miliband army take advantage and wrest power back from The Coalition?

"...the ever flexible Real Opposition will leap into the breach..."

I gather they will side with Labour this time. Leastwise that's from listening out. They seem to be attacking their Coalition partners at every opportunity.

I agree with what you wrote about fptp. The result that stuck out for me was 1979 when the SNP and Plaid Cymru tied on two seats each whilst the SNP vote was three times and more greater than that for their Celtic cousins.

"...The Yes Campaign was not coterminous with the SNP nor was it run by them..."

I understand this and await the emergence of a leader unburdened by what they said to win votes during the previous campaign.

"...Hasn't the [English Devolution] talk started with Slick Dave's English votes for English laws'..."

If it did it hasn't long to run now! The initiative ran into the sand so far as I can see. Stillborn if you will.

"...you still have the chocolate fireguard..."

Lovely.

I was quite impressed with Leanne Wood (Plaid Cymru) who was guesting on DP today.

bs