h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

There is a general election in New Zealand tomorrow.

Today one major newspaper ran its front page saying that the encumbent government would win the election and govern for a second term. It said this in a very sure and determining way.

Is that fair? Is there any evidence to show that media opinion influences voter choice?

We've also had some issues with polls here, mostly around them being done via landlines, which builds in a class bias (lots of lower income households don't have landlines now). I also wonder about the small sample sizes in an election where some parties only have 1-2 % of the vote but win electorate seats (how can you poll 1-2% in a sample of only a few hundred, esp with margins of error?). We have MMP here, so small parties are common and an important part of parliament.

I feel like polls should stop the week before the election, and there should be limits on the media predicting outcomes.

Any thoughts?

"Is there any evidence to show that media opinion influences voter choice?"

In the UK the party that 'wins' (I use the term loosely as I do not see gaining the biggest minority as a victory in any real sense) a general election is often influenced by who the majory tabloids are supporting.

Does that change from election to election?

Who they support I mean.

The sun switched from Conservative to Labour in 1997 and they won the election.

Not really, no... it generally lasts a few terms and then switches. Throughout the 80s and early 90s The Sun was a big supporter of the Conservatives, then they switched to being Labour supporters until a few years ago, then it was back to the Cons.

We run on a two party system but pretend we have more.

Don't you mean you run a one party system but you alternate which side of the party runs the country?

That's scarey about the media.

I've got stats on this - I'll dig them out when I get home. But the cheap press tends to *follow* public opinion rather than lead.

Agree with swl.

It's only really Murdoch press we're talking about, isn't it? I think the fact they switch between parties has shown that they are bereft of ideology, but are simply seeking to maximise sales to a market aligned to an optimistic groundswell of opinion.

The question was more about whether a newspaper (or whoever) running a frontpage story like that the day beofre the election does influence swing or undecided voters. I just get the impression that people end up voting for the party they think will win (or rather, not voting for the losers).

Likewise with polls.

"Don't you mean you run a one party system"

Probably! The only difference between Labour and the Torys in the last 15 years has been the colour of their ties.

Well, a flight attendant told us all to vote for one party the other day. As we're told to follow the instructions of the cabin crew, that's my mind made up for me.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/election-2011/6035044/Turbulence-as-flight-diverted-for-PM

RF

That was weird, in an election of weirdnesses.

What are you making of your fist election here RF?

You should see some of the raving monster loonies who put themselves up for election in the UK, Kea! This seemed like a boring, commonsense election to me.

But let's wait for the result.

RF

>>We run on a two party system but pretend we have more.

It's worth comparing the choice of parties we're offered to the sales technique 'alternative close':

"The alternative close works by offering more than one clearly defined alternative to the customer.

The number of alternative should be very few - two or three is often quite adequate. If you offer too many alternatives, the customer will then be faced with a more complex problem of how they choose between the many alternatives offered."

Most pertinent is the following quote:

"Note that this technique works well in many different situations where you are seeking agreement, and not just selling products."

http://changingminds.org/disciplines/sales/closing/alternative_close.htm