h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

I don't really know whether climate change has anything to do with this - but I'm not a meteorologist. It might, or it might just be the usual combination of factors: bad location for landfall, high tides, and the exuberance of the Weather Channel.

My sister called last night. She and her husband live in western Pennsylvania, in a mountainous area. They were being hit by storms from both sides, but were fine, since they live in a 200-year-old farmhouse with its own gas and water wells. She was reporting on her kids, who are in Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania, and were battening down the hatches.

Hurricane season always causes alarm. People are used to the fact that the hurricanes tear through the Caribbean. They've been doing that for as long as we can remember. Then they usually either come up and threaten the Gulf of Mexico, the FLorida peninsula, or the Carolina coast, or veer off into the Atlantic, to everyone's relief.

When they all start panicking is when the storm hits the upper half of the US eastern coast. That's because this area is extremely heavily populated. In the old days, nobody cared much if the storm hit Biloxi - there weren't many people in Biloxi, and the tourist season was over. But New Jersey, Philadelphia, New York, Boston...that's a lot of density, and a lot of infrastructure to repair.

You can evacuate the Carolina barrier islands. But you can't evacuate New York. Where are they going to go?

"I don't really know whether climate change has anything to do with this" I heard it was God's wrath against climate change sceptics.

Well, that should keep the Weather Channel happy through a few more commercials.

I'm sure climate change affects everything in *some* way, but the hurricanes aren't a new phenomenon. Also, having large power outages isn't new - all summer, we get windstorms through central North Carolina that cause tornados, downed trees, etc. People outside the area would notice more, but we don't have several million people trapped on a small island. Oh, and if we can't get online, the Stock Exchange doesn't close.

I'm not a meteorologist either, but according to those who are this is the worst storm ever recorded and we haven't seen the worst yet.

Sure, every record is only there to be broken and this could just be a hiccup in statistics, but the signs that this is the result of climate changes are overwhelming.

Are all of these climate changes man-made? Maybe not - but we certainly haven't done anything to make them smaller Au contraire.


About 6 million people in the area are now without electricity and 7 of the 11 subway tunnels under East River are flooded. This never happened before in the history of NY Subways.

(It is okay to question the validity of these data. I urge you to. Media are not there to be trusted just like that. But I expect people to know that already)

You're right, Pierce - the subway tunnels are flooded. The system is 108 years old, and this hasn't happened on that scale before. Of course, New York City doesn't get hit by hurricanes as often as Southern coastal regions.

I wonder if climate change factors are contributing to the fact that in the last couple of years, more of these storms are changing course and menacing the Northeast Corridor? Let's check it out.

According to the history:

- in 1683, a hurricane struck Long Island and changed the coastline.
- in 1788, a hurricane struck New York City and caused severe flooding.
- in 1815, a hurricane hit New York and Long Island, and destroyed the fruit crop.
- in 1841, a hurricane that hit New York did $2 million damage.
- in 1893, Hog Island was washed away by a hurricane.
- in 1938, $4.7 billion damage was done. (Measured in 2005 dollars.)

These are only a few of the hurricanes, tropical storms, and possible cyclones that have hit New York. Climate change may be exacerbating the situation. So does increased population density. But hurricanes and New York City? It happens, no matter how much this upsets city folk - especially David Letterman, who had to put on his late-night TV show with no studio audience. (Nobody at home knew when to laugh...)

Do you remember last year, when there was an earthquake that was felt in Washington, DC, New York City, Philadelphia, and even Pittsburgh? People got all apocalyptic about it, and everybody in California laughed at us.

In 1811/12, there was a major earthquake when the New Madrid Fault shifted. New Madrid's in Missouri. The Mississippi River flowed backward for several days. Church bells rang in Boston. (No lie.) People close to the epicenter thought it was the End of the World.

Not trying to downgrade concern about global warming, no sir. Just saying that in New York and New England, hurricanes sometimes DO happen.

We actually felt a quake here in Denmark not long ago (as in: this year). 4.4 on the Richter Scale, I kid you not! Worst ever recorded!

If memory serves a lady claimed one of her vases fell off her windowsill as a result

I believe Al Gorden's point is that well hidden away behind all the other statistics lurks a vast release of carbondioxide into our atmosphere. I'm afraid the point is valid

Although I don't understand why burning fossils adds "artificially" to this. These fossils have always been a natural part of spaceship earth

Sure, they have been buried under ground for millenia, but still

Oh well, let's hope our grandkids can sort it out (like the national deficit and the nuclear waste )

Yes, they've been buried, meaning the Co2 is locked away in them, but it's released all at once when it's burned.

My point was not that climate change is not a concern - it is. It's been a concern for a long time, and nobody paid attention. My point was that the hurricane season is a long-standing issue, and that settlement patterns are the most significant factor in exacerbating the effects on populations of natural events such as tornados and hurricanes. Also floods.

But what does NOAA say?

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes

NOAA's conclusions seem to be:

1. Global warming has probably not had an appreciable effect on hurricanes - YET.

2. As the century progresses, global warming will probably make hurricanes worse, because it will make them drop more rain and be more intense.

That, of course, is a Bad Thing. So reduce those greenhouse gases.

If we don't want to listen to NOAA, we can always look at the Guardian's environmental blog:

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes

Or remember what Mark Twain said: 'Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.'

Sorry, that second link should be:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/oct/30/hurricane-sandy-supersized-climate-change

Aha, somebody's doing something about something. Yay, Providence, Rhode Island.

Their hurricane barrier performed splendidly, and nobody in Rhode Island got hurt:

http://news.providencejournal.com/breaking-news/2012/10/providence-hurricane-barrier-meets-the-test-once-again-state-reports-no-dea-1.html

Please, please read the comments. And remember how small Rhode Island is.

So will this benefit Obama?

"So will this benefit Obama?"

That seems to be the consensus. I would so much prefer people to vote for him because of his politics, but if they won't do that so be it - as long as he stays in office

And apologies to Al Gore

Gorden what was I thinking

We're sympathetic with America over here. There was a blackout of over 22 hours here from last evening to this one, and now we're having a storm. But as for the scale of the thing: the blackout was just a few blocks, and this storm is probably just one of those local little things, will probably be over soon and just shed an inch or so of rain. So lots of prayers and good vibes from South Africa to the folks in the path of this hurricane!

They appreciate the good wishes, Willem.

This area's just colder than usual, and it's been rainy, and it's windy. But the yard people were out today, blowing away leaves, and everybody and his kid sister were out grocery shopping, to make up for missing out yesterday.

At least there was still bread on the shelves...

they can't blame this one on El Nino

poor bloke always cops it

"I wonder if climate change factors are contributing to the fact that in the last couple of years, more of these storms are changing course and menacing the Northeast Corridor?"

My point was not that bad weather is now hitting New York. Of course it does. Always has.

But Sandy was the worst storm ever measured - and according to my sources it's only a question of time before you can measure the effect that global warming has on hurricanes (some say you can cactually do it already - but let them fight it out between themselves)

The water levels of the oceans are already 25 to 30 centimetres higher now than - er - I can't remember - and it all contributes to making our environment unsafer.

So yes, let's reduce those greenhouse gases. The environmentalists may be wrong and create a wholesome environment for no reason whatsoever - but I for one am willing to take that chance

I'm all for creating a wholesome environment, for no reason whatever - well put!

NOAA agrees that it's a worry, down the road. We don't need even fiercer hurricanes, take it from an old Southerner.

...New York City a disaster area for the second time this century, nearly an even money bet even if global warming is not increasing the rate that there'll be another storm like that this century.




Rhode Island's sea wall success is encouraging.

A small state like that can't really afford to lose too much territory to encroaching seas.




One of the more recent and dramatic sea level increase events, celebrated in California surfer legend, "Big Monday", actually two Mondays, two weeks, half a tidal cycle, apart, in which one was seeing 30 foot waves in locations and conditions in which waves more than 6 feet in height are unusual.

When everything had leveled off again, the sea level had moved inland an intertidal, the new low tide mark being where the old high tide mark used to be, the point of this being that sea level increase events don't occur slowly and incrementally, millimeter by millimeter, instead hitting suddenly and catastrophically in increments measured in intertidals.

The phenomenon was actually global, installation of new controls for tidal flooding on the Thames probably motivated by the same sea level increase.




As to where the water came from, one possibility is thermal expansion, definitely a factor in El Nino weather.

Also, the Mackenzie ice sheet in northwest Canada disappeared about this time.

One can find it marked on middle twentieth century maps, showing what was, at the time, in terms of horizontal expanse, the third most extensive permanent glaciation in the world.

It was comparatively shallow though and isn't there anymore as a permanent, year round, ice mass.

Possibly, especially given its comparatively recent discovery, it was merely a transient artifact of the late 18th century "Little Ice Age".

The Iceland glaciation, by the way, is also shrinking.

Its estimated that the permanent north polar sea ice will be gone by the end of this century, that the arctic ocean will be ice free in the summer.

The installed a much hyped sea wall in Suffolk, UK. A year or so later they were still saying how wonderful it was, a year or two after that villages down the coast were being wiped out due to erosion. They'd merely moved the problem down the coast somewhat.