h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

The Monty Hall problem belongs among the family of non-problems that occur when chance, logic, probability and term definitions are blurred.

The original problem outlined does seem to give a 2 to 1 likelihood of winning by switching doors, but the original selection is not a one-in-three chance of being correct. It is the logic that is faulty.

The only thing originally selected is 'one of two doors that will not be opened', and not 'which door hides the prize'. This gives it the illusion of being a one-in-three chance of being right, when the first selection has no effect on the 50-50 outcome of the final selection. As the door hiding the prize will never be opened after the first selection, there will always be a 50-50 chance that the first selection was correct.

The problem is not one of probability math, but of definition of outcomes and logic.

Sorry

My retraction, and apologies can be found on the other thread. I had a good re-think. Feel free to chastise.

Nah, this all goes to show that the Problem really is a problem that confuses intelligent people. Even hootooers can't figure it out!

Your explanations convince me. I particularly like the 50-doors analogue of the Monty Hall game (though he would probably ask the help of 47 hardly dressed ladies to open all the doors ).

Having just read this, and also the various journal entries where this is proved, I can only say two things.
1- Well done. Really interesting article, has had me thinking about it all afternoon at work.
2- ! Has had me thinking about it ALL AFTERNOON at work!