h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

I should say at the outset that I’m not 100% certain of any of this.

The way it looks to me, you should never be more than 99% sure of anything, if that. One of the few things I’ve come to be 99% sure of that is that people who are 100% sure of anything are dangerous and deluded.

Ideas that have been gestating for years fell into place when I heard Blair facing the Iraq inquiry. The man’s own rightness and truthfulness suddenly weren’t the point. Far more significant, it seemed to me, was that the force of his conviction somehow protected him from criticism. It was as though he was afforded some kind of deference simply because he was so certain of his moral justification.

But surely there is no Right to be Sure?

This isn’t a matter of religion. It seems to me that there are things more fundamental than man’s concept of God. Depending on your point of view, those things could range from the supremacy of God Himself to His non-existence. They could be other things too, like peace, like freedom from poverty, or disease, or like what we leave here for our children.

I was encouraged to question things from an early age, I’m pleased to say. My father was and is an incorrigible sceptic. I trained as a scientist, and learned how theories are built on evidence till the practice became part of my nature. My natural philosophy is to go with the best interpretation for now, but always be prepared to rethink.

There are lots of unsifted questions in my head, of course, where I know that a body of evidence must exist but I haven’t taken the time to consider it. On these questions, my reflex is to reserve my opinion, and to listen rather than talk.

We’re not all like that, it seems. Not everyone knows what they’re talking about, even though a little thought suggests that no good can come from an opinion held without evidence. An opinion espoused without evidence can only be worse, can’t it? Many people seem to pretend a special wisdom, and they even tend to resist the efforts of others to challenge and develop their ideas. The best ideas are shared, though, and they evolve through repeated questioning by different minds. There is nothing exclusive about real understanding. Expression is the vehicle for the dissemination of insight. Rhetoric is not the fount of the insight itself.

In the end, I think the principle of advocacy may be at fault. This is quite an important point if there’s any merit in it, because it means that the foundation of our system of justice is flawed. But it seems to me that, if you judge the legality of something by having one side argue white and the other side black, you will inevitably fuel a belief that the prevailing absolute position is absolutely true. My experience and interpretation of reality is that truth is nearly if not always grey. In my world, I guess, nothing at all is beyond all reasonable doubt. Doubt itself is reasonable, and indeed beyond reasonable. It’s a moral necessity. Thomas was the truest disciple. Humanity creates Evil when it defines absolutes.

If the righteous and powerful, with Tony Blair as only the most recent example, are right in their beliefs, then we should pity them. The vanity of their convictions makes them Hellbound for sure.

Well, probably anyway.

Pin, one of my favorite quotes has always been this one from Bertrand Russell.

The trouble with the world is
that the stupid are cocksure
and the intelligent are full
of doubt.

This is a fabulous post. Thank you. I hope all of our true believers find it and read it. But then they wouldn't recognize themselves, would they?

I've often thought that it must be wonderful to have that certainty, to not be plagued by doubt and questions. Whether their beliefs and opinions are based on logic or not, whether they seem reasonable to me or not, at least they believe in something. that must be a comfort to them. It gives then a foundation and helps them define themselves. One of my regrets is that I've never genuinely believed in anything to an extent approaching certainty. If there is any one thing I believe, it would be that there are no absolutes.

It would seem to be certain that nothing can be certain.
Like most interesting problems you can only become certain if you can be certain that certain assumptions that you will have made in order to arrive at your conclusion are in themselves certain.
Of this any incorrigible sceptic can be almost certain.

Hi Hypatia,

So therefore you are certain of being not certain. !!

Is that not an absolute?

I am like you, I love these quasi-philosophical wanderings.....

At this great age, I am uncertain about a lot of things about which I thought I was certain....so what does one do?

We talk about them on h2g2.... not hootoo.!!

Why not hootoo?

Well.. and the merry-go-round and around and around......
and eventually it.....

Yes, it does stop, it must stop......mustn't it?

The doubting, befuddled octagenarian. enjoying her moments of thought about certain beliefs!!!!

Oh dear, there I go again....

CME
AlsoRan80

8/II/2010 7.26 GMT




With much affection

Christiane
AR80

Monday 8/II/2010 7.10 GMT