h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

Shaun Alexander came within a yard of taking the NFL rushing title last year. Throughout his career he has been productive and generally mild mannered team member.

He had a spat about not getting the title. He blamed the team. He very quickly apologised.

During the draft, nobody wanted him for a second round pick. Now the Panthers are stalling at coughing up a third round pick for a proven producer entering what should theoretically be the best years of his career.

I can understand his difficulties with the Seachickens (though only just). I can understand our difficulties with him and the salary cap.

What I don't understand is how his stock has sunk so low that he's not even considered worth a third round pick?

Anybody got any opinuions?

1) I don't think his best years are ahead of him. Recent history suggests that the shelf-life of a tailback is only about 5-7 years before they start to wear down. Alexander has been a workhorse for 4 years now, averaging 320 carries per season. Whoever gets him now gets the last season or two out of him before he begins to break down, and he'll carry a star's pricetag.

2) RB is the easiest position to replace lately. Teams are figuring out that there is no other position where you can put a first-day draft choice in the starting lineup and get an immediate return on the investment with such consistency.

It's just been over the last couple years where the trend has really stood out. But GM's who have limited resources due to the cap will save wherever they can, and it's clear that the RB position has become a bit overvalued.

I guess that most of the teams that required RB's have filled the gap. In the end market conditions dictate.

Looking at the top rushers for last year ...

Rank Player Team Yds Att Avg TDs
1 Curtis Martin NYJ 1697 371 4.6
2 Shaun Alexander SEA 1696 353 4.8
3 Corey Dillon NE 1635 345 4.7
4 Edgerrin James IND 1548 334 4.6
5 Tiki Barber NYG 1518 322 4.7
6 Rudi Johnson CIN 1454 361 4.0
7 LaDn Tomlinson SD 1335 339 3.9
8 Clinton Portis WAS 1315 343 3.8
9 Reuben Droughns DEN 1240 275 4.5
10 Fred Taylor JAC 1224 260 4.7
11 Domanick Davis HOU 1188 302 3.9
12 Ahman Green GB 1163 259 4.5
13 Kevin Jones DET 1133 241 4.7
14 Willis McGahee BUF 1128 284 4.0
15 Warrick Dunn ATL 1106 265 4.2
23 Michael Vick ATL 902 120 7.5
16 Deuce McAl'ster NO 1074 269 4.0
17 Chris Brown TEN 1067 220 4.9
18 Jamal Lewis BAL 1006 235 4.3
19 Thomas Jones CHI 948 240 4.0
20 Jerome Bettis PIT 941 250 3.8
25 Duce Staley PIT 830 192 4.3
24 Priest Holmes KC 892 196 4.6
28 Julius Jones DAL 819 197 4.2
29 Brian Westbrook PHI 812 177 4.6
30 Marshall Faulk STL 774 195 4.0

Of the team's entering the offseason with RB needs:
- Oakland - picked up LaMont Jordan in FA.
- Miami - Ronnie Brown - 1st round pick this year.
- Tampa - Carnell Williams - 1st round pick this year.
- Minnesota - pretty much happy with Bennett and Moore.
- Arizona - Emmitt's finished, but they picked JJ Arrington in this year's 2nd round.
- Carolina picked Eric Shelton in the 2nd round this year, and they still have Steven Davis coming back off injury, as well as Nick Goings 800-yd season last year.
- Cleveland - they picked up Green and Suggs over the past 3 years, although these guys aren't definites.

Of what I can see that pretty much only leaves the 49ers without an obvious choice RB these days. That's not much of a marketplace ...

BBS

Hmm, I might quibble about the life of a tailback, given that we picked up Watters at the same point (if not slightly later) in his career and got terrific production out of him for the full five years of his contract.

But I can certainly see the other ones. Look likes Alexander may well be sitting out the season, and after that no ones gonna want him.

That'd be a sad end to pretty good career to date.

Here's Vic Carucci's view over at NFL.com on a similar situation

BBS

"What's the deal with Travis Henry? After consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, there appears not to be too much interest in him. It would seem he's worth more than a third-round pick, but there are no takers. Why?
-- Ra

I think there is interest in Henry, but not the sort that would allow the Buffalo Bills to receive a third-round pick or higher for him. There are two main factors working against the Bills and Henry.

One is that, given Henry's predictable angry response to being replaced by Willis McGahee as a starter last season, he is a headache for the Bills. No team is going to pay a premium, or even a semi-premium price, for another team's headache. Henry wants out, he is likely to become a locker-room cancer if he stays, and any team that might have an interest in acquiring him is going to wait for the Bills to release him -- provided they don't make a deal first.

Another reason the Bills are unlikely to get a good price for Henry is that several teams were able to address their need at running back from a draft that had an abundance of highly talented players at the position. Also, at least one other veteran running back with a higher profile, Shaun Alexander, is available. And there is a possibility that if Ricky Williams does the expected and rejoins the Miami Dolphins, he, too, could end up on the trade market. "

Hmm, wanna do a swap, Blathrs. You take the risk Alexander blows out in two years, we take the risk Williams doesn't play at all...

But with Ricky's deal being violated, we can re-sign him for a lot cheaper. And we already have an insurance policy against him: Ronnie Brown. So, thanks, but no thanks.

As for the Ricky Watters analogy: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/WattRi00.htm

He was never a workhorse back in that SF offense, not surprising, considering that pass-wacky West Coast scheme never featured a workhorse back. He didn't get near a 300-carry season until he went to Philly, where he'd had only three of them. So the argument is there that his career was extended due to limited use in SF.

Fair enough. I hadn't looked at the figures.

Ah well, another long season ahead of us without a decent running back. Hass is good but he ain't Dan Marino.

I only looked at the Watters numbers because I had a hunch about him. I didn't remember him being used much until Seattle, but I'd forgotten about his Philly days.

Is the news really that dire about Alexander? I haven't heard anything about him holding out, and you'd think that would be big news. He's under the franchise tag, meaning at a minimum he'll make some fat money on a one-year contract.

He has apparently vowed that he will 'never' sign a tender from Seattle. I don't think front office are panicking yet, as he is still listed on the depth chart.

But I have a feeling in my bones. We were ready to ship him to the Panthers for a third round pick - it was they who stalled, not us.

Well, it seems the news is officially dire. Alexander has announced that he is ready to hold out if he doesn't get a long-term contract. And it seems the team is quietly inquiring about Travis Henry.

Honestly, I don't think Alexander is doing himself any favors. The market at the RB position is changing, and he would do well to change with it. The fact they were ready to part with him for a 3rd-rounder should be something of a wake-up call.

hough one has to agree with Pete Prisco - surely he isn't stupid enough to leave $6.3 million on the table for playing 16 games of football?

I must confess to be a little bit past caring at this stage of the year. As Lance Armstrong (barring disaster) heads for a 7th and final Tour win, as the Ashes are rekindled and the Autumn Rugby Union fixtures hove into view I could give little more than a tinkers cuss about the Hawks.

I'm already resigned to finishing at best 2nd in the division and probably third. I think my resolve has been broken by 15 years of mediocrity.

"And it seems the team is quietly inquiring about Travis Henry."

Now that might be a sensible trade ... a fresh start for both players (and their teams). I guess it would come down to salaries and age as to whether they worth each other.

BBS

There's no way it would be a 1:1 trade. Henry isn't happy in Buffalo with the emergence of McGahee as the starter. Putting Alexander in that situation would be even worse. The Chickens would have to offer something other than Alexander. It makes more sense for the Chickens to offer a draft pick and sign Henry as an insurance policy while they continue to deal with Alexander, or ship him elsewhere.

Henry's apparently on his way to becoming a Titan for the required 3rd round pick. Jags could go for Alexander I suppose ...

BBS

Interesting Irony. Alexander went on to sign a one year tender, smashed the record for touchdowns in a season, was the NFL's leading rusher and League MVP. He was the main weapon of an offense that set Seahawk records and posted the best ever season for the Hawks, and only ended with one of the worst (and *the* worst officiated) Superbowls ever.

He then promptly signed an enormous, backloaded deal that will see him finish his career in Seattle at the age of 32, one way or the other.

And this year will see him break in one way or another.
Why?, you ask. He was chosen as the cover boy for Madden NFL '07 a sure way to know that you should not choose Alexander for your fantasy team this year.

With the loss of Stephen Hutchinson on the left side of the O-line, the Seahawks have lost a big player that was a big part of Alexander's great season last year.

I've been hearing about Hutchinson a lot on the message boards. We'll see. Personally I don't think it will hurt as much as most non-Seattle fans seem to think. But then Seattle fans have a better idea of just how good the back ups are.

As for the Madden curse - there has to be a first player to escape it. Just as there has to be a first team to escape the 'superbowl losers' curse.

I wouldn't bet against it being Alexander and Seattle respectively.

Unless of course you are one of these jokers who really think the Cardinals are going to go big .

Besides, given the upgrade in the receiving corps, how many yards does SA need to still be a premier weapon? He could lose 25% of his production and still get 1200 yards.

Given that you're a Dallas fan, I fully expect to be meeting you in the Championship game next year, so you'll get a chance to find out.