h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

Exactly the opinion pool with 30 days to the GE were already at the level of support the LIb Dems had at the same time in 2001. When the media has to give equality of coverage means that the national coverage usually builds on that level of support come election night. So the build up is there to get to alomost the hiatus of teh Alliance when it sprung from nowhere in 1983 but didn't get the result in seats. People now know they can win. And once in can do a good job so the momentum is continuing to build.

Don't gforger it took the Labour party about 26 years to form it's first shortlived adminstration. People had to believe they could be trusted.

However DD it is intellectually dishonest to draw parrallels with the rise of the Labour party and the current up tunr in fortunes enjoyed by the Liberal Democrats.

The situation during the rise of thw Labour party was one of massive changes to the basis of the franchise, which gave *millions* of people who previously could not vote a vote. Almost all of these people were "ntural" supporters of the incipant labour party. The changes to the political landscape were massive. Huge social cleavages as a result of the burdgeoning WC population who now had a vote meant that the very basis of the political landscape had changed.

I see *no* such parrallel today. We have two anodyne main parties between whom it is very difficult to get a butter knife, but the Libs are not offereng a massivly different policy direction in the way the Labour party were in 1898. As I have banged on all over this siter for the last couple of days regardless of party allegience the FPP system does not favour a third party.

It activly punishes them. Even if the Libs were to poll as many votes as the Tories say they would not get as many seats (as happened to the Alliance with Labour in 83). Unless our voting system changes the Libs *wont* be either Government or Oppositon.

Ah but in Scotland and Wales there has been a change in the way the franchise is exercised which ahs seen Liberal Democrats get into power in coalition government and the party is being seen on that basis in those locations and are proming the changes from Scotland to the rest of the UK at this election.

I agree the parallel is a bit construed but there is still the fact that the party has had to earn trust again and that is starting to be the case.

I do see that and for my good on scotland and wales....

But the fact still remains that for UK elections we still use FPP. The reason it favours a two party system is not because of voter trust, but because of the mechanics of the system.

Voters jealously gaurd their votes and wish to exact the maximum possible influence form said votes. That means that if you have STV or PR ect... there is a very good chance your vote is going to be counted and used whomever you vote for.

Under FPP your vote (in ther grand scheme of things) is only likely to be telling when voting for the top two in your constiuency in the last election. In the vast majority of UK constituencys that is Tories or Labour.

For the Libs to not be a wasted vote (in anything other than a conscience sense or long, long term plan sense) then the voting system has to be changed IMHO.

I dont like that, I dont think it is a good system, but it is my rational and I think un-biased assesment of the situation.

I totally agree FB but until a party gets into power that is willing to change FPP that party has to utilise FPP as best it can to get to change the system. I'm just hoping it is sooner rather than later.

For all the problems with FPP changing to propotinal representation could well be more dangerous remeber it was that system that allowed Hitler to get into power. While FPP has its weaknesses and does need to be changed changing it could well let many extremists into power something I'm sure none of us want.

What would happen to independants and single issue candidates if we switched to PP.~ such as the doctor who won his seat campaigning against the closure of his local hospital or the bereaved father standing against Teflon Tony this time round.
Usually such candidates have only a narrow platform amongst their small constituency and i would hate to see us lose these lone voices who are often seen as the conscience of parliament

there are plenty of methods of proportinal representation that would not affect the 'tatton' type result. A combined list system with Single Transferable Vote for example. (I am aware none of these systems produce a 'true' proportional result but surely better than a situation where vast sections of the electorate get no representation at all)

Is voting Lib dem a wasted vote? - certainly not in the constituencies they win as there you are keeping out another candidate you might not like. One day we will get a hung parliament, the lib dems will have to be brought into a coalition and we will get some form of PR which will be good for democracy generally.

Certainly not a wasted vote in some Labour area's - anything to cut their majority is welcome.

Ha! - 'once in can do a good job'
Rubbish! what about Brent - before the Lib Dem candidate got in, in that Constiuancy they promised £100 off Council Tax - when safely installed they went back on that promise!.....which was the only reason they won there.

You really reckon? I dont think for a second that either the Labour or Tory parties would *ever* offer electoral reform as a coalition condition.

Think about it, they are both gaurenteed under the current system to have absolute power or the realistic possibility of having it soon. That will never happen after voting reform.

Turkeys, Voting and xmas spring to mind....

Which is why its important no-one ever votes Labour or Tory if we are ever to get it.

<---very cheeky winkeye

just to be serious for a second though, if the price of coalition was PR reform - and the governemnt refused it and theyby let the coalition collapse - how would they govern at all?

There would just be another election. it has happened before.

In fact the *norm* for UK politics is to have another election in the event of a hung parliament rather than a coalition.

I honestly dont think that Labour ot Tories would feel electoral reform a price worth paying for a couple of years of hamstrung power.

I wouldn't be too sirprised at a coalition forming. Once the lib dems have some power they may well call for a review of electrol reform. They wouldn't be guarenteed anything bt they might get something.

We will see....

I will however lay odds that if there is a hung parliament another general election will follow sharpish.

the post about Brent is simply nonsense. No party campaigns at a bye election on issues that are set by local authorities. MPs have no control over council tax (except in the central government contribution to local authority costs). A the Lib Dems have only 10 councilors in Brent this it is rather unlikely they could change their council tax.

the post about hitler getting in is also disingenuous. Most modern PR systems have a minimum % of the vote before proportionality kicks in to prevent unpleasant minority or frivolous parties getting seats.

Resurrects Thread:

Two things, first off - I just checked the BBC's poll tracker and it has the Lib Dems on 25%. Now I know one should not put too much credence in polls but I think I'm right in saying thats the best result in a poll they've had since the election was called.

Secondly, who watched Newsnight last night?

Interesting, I thought, the point Martha Kearney made about results from Postal Ballots. Apparently Party Officals have been monitoring the count to check the fairness of the results. A net benefit of which has been that they also can spot early trends in voting patterns, especially in those all important marginal constiuancies. She forwarded the opinion that the numbers coming in have given Labour a right case of the Willies due to a bouyed Lib Dem advance which threatens to claim several marginals from Labour. This consequenlty, she suggested, might explain why Labour have gone on the attack no longer focussing solely on the Tories, but addressing a 'threat' of a lib dem gains - all that rot about 1 in 10 voters, backdoor governments (a sure indictment of FPP?)and so on.

Perhaps the so-called 'Iraq effect' is having an impact after all -and deservedly so, IMO.

The thing is there is either going to be a Tory govt or a Labour govt. Both would have gone to war in Iraq.

Let us not kid our selves about the choice before us, yeah I think the way ni which the decision to go to war was taken was quite wrong but the truth is our choice now is how we will be governed for the next 4-5 years.

Do we want a Tory programme or a Labour programme because there is no way whatsoever that CK will walk through the doors of number 10 on friday. I hate TB, but I hate MH more (remeber the poll Tax folks?) and however distastefull I find the knee jerk populism on TB and his obsession with PFI and sucking up to GB IMHO it would be much worse under the count.

<< Are the Lib Dems a wasted vote on May 5th?>>

Not if you agree with them