h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

Certainty is a word with some useful applications; if you buy a ticket in a large lottery it is not certain that you will lose, but it is certain that your chances of losing are higher than your chances of winning. To dispute this would be quite strange behaviour, surely?

However in religious usage the flavour of the word certainty is no different from that of faith. Religious certainty has more in common with the act of throwing in your lot with a chosen person or faction. It is really the expression of whole-hearted support, and that is in a different game altogether from things like mathematical certainty.

Maths may well be employed in making your choice of faction, but that is a separate matter.

The certainty of a probability (whether or not you win the lottery) is an unusual example to illustrate your point of view! My point is that even the things we believe to be most probable are not certain, although they can *approach* it. To observe "I am certain that fire involves flames" (or similar) does not illustrate or progress the discussion, as far as I can see....



Surely "religious certainty" is a misuse of the term, intended to convey the overwhelming commitment of the believer to whatever it is they believe? [This in the context of belief being a choice to accept something as correct in the absence of proof or disproof.] So I agree: "It is really the expression of whole-hearted support".

Pattern-chaser

"Who cares, wins"

Pattern-chaser

"Who cares, wins"

I am casting doubt on the value of your assertion "Certainty describes a state - unattainable in reality - whereby something is known with complete precision, with no possibility of error. Some humans actually believe they have entered this state of intellectual nirvana. A dangerous illusion."

I say that certainty of a meaningful kind is attainable. OK, perhaps it is confusing to use an example that also exemplifies probability. I wanted something from real life that is also a fact of mathematics (where there is such a thing as certainty). Bad choice, perhaps; so I start again.

There are two common uses for the term "certain": one is in the calculation of a certainty, the other is in the feeling of certainty. You seem to recommend that the second usage should be banned. Do you expect many people to support you? I think it would be an unnecessarily harsh ban.

What is important is that "the feeling of certainty" should be kept distinct in our minds from the calculation of a certainty. I do agree that were I to come to believe that I had entered a state of intellectual nirvana, it could be a dangerous illusion. On the other hand it could be enlightenment, and I wouldn't mind a bit of that.

You are not using "certainty" with the same meaning as I am. Although merely appearing in a dictionary proves nothing, I am using the word as my OED defines it:

Certainty 1. That which is certain, the fact, the truth. 2. A fact or thing certain or sure. 3. Surety. 4. The quality of being certain.

And so on. Something certain is not open to dispute; it is correct. It is not and cannot be wrong or incorrect. Whatever it is, is true without doubt.

There are things we define to be true, such as '1 + 1 = 2'. If we accept the axioms and assumptions that go with number, the process of addition, and so on, then '1 + 1 = 2' cannot help but be true. To apply the term 'certainty' to such a thing is to trivialise the term and the concept it represents.

And so I would dispute what you say of mathematics, "where there is such a thing as certainty". The certainties of methemtics are either things which are defined to be true, or thing which follow ineluctably from them. These are certain only in the trivial sense I have already alluded to.



I see only one common use for the term 'certain', which I have already defined. I don't think there can be a calculation of certainty, only of probability. I seek no ban. I'm not sure how you derived that from what I have written. I believe that there is no such thing as certainty in any practical and meaningful interpretation of reality as we humans perceive and live it.

Pattern-chaser

"Who cares, wins"

I'm sorry, we're at cross puropses here. When I said "mathematics (where there is such a thing as certainty)" I was agreeing that mathematics is the place where thee is such a thing as absolute certainty -- because the outcome is built into the definition of the symbols. I also agree that the "truths" of maths are theefore in a sense trivial.

I understood you to be saying that non-trivial certainty, or certainty in real life, is not to be had. Have I misunderstood or misread you there?

Not unless I've just misunderstood what you wrote, no. It is my belief that non-trivial certainty in the real world is unattainable to humans. Not that certainty can't exist, but that we can't verify it, so *we* can never be certain about anything.

This really isn't a problem. We're all used to being wrong in the real world. (Well I am. ) What matters is that we are right - verified with hindsight! - often enough to live our lives without too much difficulty.

I think it is reasonable to say that the things of which we are most sure have a very high probability of being correct. Continued and continuing experience of real life verifies this again and again. The loss of certainty is no loss at all. We gain an increased open-ness to new ideas, and we lose only a misapprehension, as we never had certainty in the first place, we just thought we did.

Pattern-chaser

"Who cares, wins"

Fine we seem to agree so far.

Now, about religious certainty; I define that as the act of throwing in your lot with a sect, and (to mix things) throwing away the key. A political act, yes. But (do you mean to say) meaningless?

I understand what you mean, I think, but I can't see why the term "certainty" is appropriate. To do what you describe, surely it is enough for someone to be *convinced*? This would require a fairly high degree of confidence in one's judgement, but not necessarily certainty. I suspect that the 'standards of proof' required here are similar to those of a British court: that one should be convinced beyond reasonable doubt.

Having said that, I have it in mind that dogmatism - the feeling that says I am right, without doubt, and if you disagree with me you must therefore be wrong - may be a form of certainty. ... I think it might be more correctly described as an opinion, for the subjects of dogmatism tend to be religious, or similar, where neither (conclusive) proof nor disproof exists. Lacking such (dis)proof, I don't think certainty is a defensible claim. Phew, thought I'd got myself there!

Pattern-chaser

"Who cares, wins"

Fair enough. I'm happy to drop my complaint, which was perhaps nitpicking to begin with.

Being both a nitpicking person and a word person, I would say that there are two reasonable definitions of certainty:

Certainty as a noun: as above defined, the act or state of being sure, of something incontrovertibly true.
But--
To be certain as a verb: to be SURE, to have certainty, which is not the same thing at all. If something is certain, it is true. But if a person is certain of a thing, they are sure of it, which does not necessarily mean that it is true; it simply means that they are convinced that it is true. Certainty as a state of being is merely a very advanced state of belief, lacking doubt. External, objective reality goes on regardless of what we are or are not certain of, so in that way, as I said, certainty is only dangerous to those who are certain and those who believe them when they say it. Those of us who question and nitpick everything are safe; we understand that things are the way they are and so maintain a healthy doubt. That is, I think, the one certain thing, since we've decided that death is not necessarily certain: things are the way they are.
-Rivaine

Surely "to be certain" isn't a verb? I'm not a technical word person, but that looks to me like "to be" is the verb bit, and "certain" is tacked onto the end. An adverb, or something?

It seems to me that the 'certainty' you refer to here is no such thing. I think it is the age-old debating tactic of using words to make your (unsubstantiated) opinions sound like facts. So instead of saying "I believe in the Gods", I say "The existence of the Gods is certain". I have no more justification to add, but I phrase myself so that the unwary may accept what I want them to accept: my opinion.

Does that seem reasonable?

Pattern-chaser

"Who cares, wins"

Certainly.

sorry couldn't resist that

Pattern-chaser

"Who cares, wins"

Okay, you're right, nitpick my phrasing, but the idea is reasonable, no? "Certainty" in the context of something being certain is different from "certainty" in the context of SOMEONE being certain of SOMETHING.
-Rivaine

No

<"Certainty" in the context of something being certain is different from "certainty" in the context of SOMEONE being certain of SOMETHING.>

No, they're the same thing. The first is the thing itself, certainty, and the second is a *claim* to certainty. Such a claim must be verified, of course....

Pattern-chaser

"Who cares, wins"

In the phrase 'to be certain' the word 'certain' is an adjective. The same as in - to be happy, to be tired, etc.

I wonder why people would *want* certainty (if it exists, which I don't believe is possible, I believe it is a totally subjective idea) as surely this would then cut them off from other possibilities.

Once one has closed of one's mind to any new information then this must be quite a sad thing - at least I think so.

az

Hi Birthday Girl! Reached your late twenties already, I see. Hey! - nice hair!

Thanks for the comments. I think it's becoming clear, from the way this conversation is going, that certainty can only be an intellectual curiosity to a human. As soon as we start to entertain ideas of actual certainty in the real world, things get difficult! As you imply, Az, certainty closes the door to (some) (most?) new learning.

In short, I stand by the closing words of the original entry on 'certainty': a dangerous illusion.

Pattern-chaser

"Who cares, wins"

In some respects a feeling of certainty is comforting. Uncertainty can often make you feel uneasy.

And just because you're certain (let's say 'pretty certain') of something doesn't mean there is no room for new information to shed new light on the issue, even if it doesn't change the underlying truth. If this were not so religious 'dogmatists'; who must surely have some feeling of certainty, would not be interested in studying their religion further.

It seems to me that the philosophical problem with 'certainty' is that reality, such as it is, is filtered through our senses and (hopefully) our brains. We believe we perceive reality but what we think of as the real world is held in our minds as a mental map: a sort of neurological virtual reality. On the whole this doesn't matter because however our mental map looks to us individually we agree on certain definitions collectively. Thus whatever colour the sky looks to me and to you we both agree to call that colour 'blue' (or grey where I am now). The issue arises because we can only sense what we sense but we know there is a whole lot more going on. We can't see radio frequency 'light' but we know it (or something like it) exists, so we have to assume there are other things which 'exist' but have so far not been detected. To some people this would have to include God, to others merely more subtle, deeper, manifestations of physical laws already known. It has been suggested, for example, that we could all be part of some Matrix-like computer simulation. The upshot of all this is that while I may be certain there is a telephone on my desk - and for all practical purposes there is - philosophically the physical existence of the telephone, desk or even me can be called into question.

Consequently, as P-c would argue, Certainty is not possible because Knowledge and Truth are not possible either. For all practical purposes however I am certain the sun will rise tomorrow morning and, frankly, I'd rather be cut off from any other possibilities about that.

F

See, there, I keep getting shut down. *hides in corner* Owell, I tried.
-Rivaine

hi Fathom,

<>

Really? Well, I may be somewhat certain about the sun rising tomorrow morning but I am never certain about myself doing the same . . .

Must be nice to be as secure as yourself.

az