h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

I found this one that semed to work quite nicely:

http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/LetsMakeaDeal.html

That doesn't work for me.

>>
In the 28 games you have switched, you have won 14 times
In the 9 games you have not switched, you have won 4 times
>>

Good job my mum wasn't watching.

Don't you just hate random number generators?

Since Recumbentman's explanation (in a thread attached to the entry) is quite different from mine and seems to work for him, I have included it in the entry and made him a joint author of the entry.

I'm happy with this entry now as it is.

I still think that the simplest explanation, which I posted a while ago (post # 7), is:

you have a 2/3 chance of hitting the wrong door with the first guess;

so

there's a 2/3 chance that Monty will have to choose between a right door and a wrong door, and of course, Monty can't choose the right door;

so

there's a 2/3 chance that the door neither you nor Monty choose will be the door with the prize.

To put it really briefly: There's a 2/3 chance that you will choose a wrong door on the first turn, forcing Monty to open the other wrong door thereby telling you which door has the prize, therefore, you should switch.

I find the explanations in the entry (except for Recumbantman's, which is basically the same as mine) kind of confusing.

But other people seem to understand my explanation, and have even come up their own versions of my explanation. If you are happy with Recumbentman's explanation and everyone else is happy with mine, then the entry has everything it needs.

Isn't it funny how different brains can come to the same solution of a problem through mutually incomprehensible means?

I wasn't meaning to suggest that anything should be changed; I was just commenting on what seemed to me a terribly clear statement of the probablilities. The entry is just fine.

Nice entry Gnomon

What problems exactly did you have with the Monty Hall simulators? My only one was that I kept losing

Although none of the following explicitly mention the problem they might make useful further entries of interest to those who like discussion of counter-intuitive probability to link to:
A857793 Probability and Statistical Reversal Paradoxes

A801695 Bayes' Theorem and Bayesian Statistics

A741953 Beating the Odds

A963470 The Gambler's Fallacy

A543043 What do Probabilities Mean?

Pimms

Thanks, Pimms. I've added those links in a section at the end called 'Further Reading'.

Good job on the EG links.

What didn't you like about the simulators? The top-google pick:

http://www.stat.uiuc.edu/~stat100/java/Monty.html

seems to do the job fine, though it provides no explanation directly (so your entry is needed ).

Personally I like links where you can try things out (though you do have to hope the site continues to exist )

Pimms

None of the simulators except the 'Cheap Monty Hall' work on my pc, so I don't want to recommend them. The Cheap Monty Hall is not actually working by chance at all, so it is not what it seems.

I can see how you would be wary of including a link you couldn't actually use (and test) yourself. All I can offer is that I have no problem with the link I've suggested.

Pimms L

Incidentally does your nickname byline mean you are at home rather than at work - I had tentatively assumed you were indicating you would be away from computers, and not to expect an instant reply.

No, I'm not actually going until 4pm today. But I changed my name now so that I can choose to reply or not depending on whether I feel like it.

Your Guide Entry has just been picked from Peer Review by one of our Scouts, and is now heading off into the Editorial Process, which ends with publication in the Edited Guide. We've therefore moved this Review Conversation out of Peer Review and to the entry itself.

If you'd like to know what happens now, check out the page on 'What Happens after your Entry has been Recommended?' at EditedGuide-Process. We hope this explains everything.

Thanks for contributing to the Edited Guide!

Did Gnomon see the pick, or is he en route for his holiday?

Well Done

Pimms

I'd hate for him not to have seen it after I went to the trouble of picking the thing.

I'm sure he can pick up the 'pon his return.


Geggs

Yay! [from on holidays]