A Conversation for Talking Point: Predictions for the Future
Political Future
Uncle Ghengis Started conversation Sep 16, 2002
A lot of history is about war, conquest and territory. I suspect the
future will involve some of this too. In the past one hundred years the world has seen global conflict, followed by the invention of hugely distructive weapons that make such wars almost unthinkable. Now, after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre and Pentagon, conflict seems different. Will any really big wars happen ? Or will the United Nations become a kind of global government and prevent such things ?
My own view is that the UN will indeed strive to become a global power
(and be wholly ineffective in its efforts to suppress conflict.) And I don't think such a monster beaurocracy will be a pleasant thing either. Instead, I suspect that George Orwells novel "1984" will become a very accurate portrayal of life in the coming century...
Of course there are some big players in this game, and they have many
differing agendas. Consider what happens when you have a volatile
mixture of ideas such as the UN, the USA, the EU, the Islamic world,
China, the uprising of the disaffected 3rd world.
If I were you I'd find some small corner of the world to hide in...
(and eat some "Oglanuts")
Any comments ?
Political Future
star of taliesin Posted Sep 16, 2002
Greetings,
I would have to agree with a lot of what you wrote Uncle. A global government (even if it only serves as a supervising agent) is, at least at this point in time, highly unlickly to succeed in keeping worldpeace.
The major reason being that still too many nations have to depend on others for help; this in itself is an injustice we should aim to rectify as soon as possible...thing is: our own "developped countries" are actually quite eager to keep the situation status quo; creating a dependency is the easiest way to create and keep "allies".
Allies are needed to take and hold the power and the control our governments live off...sad, but true.
I am quite convinced that wars will be fought, mayheps not even about influence and power, but because of a terrible necessity: clean and unpoluted water for one. It seems far fetched, but some time ago I did a study on the subject and what I found was alarming.
Too many people, especially in "developping countries" have to share too little water. (for more info on the subject: http://www.geocities.com/star_of_taliesin/water.html)
Concern for the environement and acting on that concern, rather than having big and powerfull lobbies decide and act for us, should be the first point on the agenda of EVERY nation right now.
Much is said as to "saving the Earth", when it actually should be "saving humanity". It is rather arrogant to think that the earth needs saving (let us not forget that this planet has lived so much longer than we can even comprehend, she has gone through so many cataclysmic events and adapted,survived and got stronger). If we as humans can destroy one thing, then it is "humanity"; the Earth would be wounded and scared, but I am convinced, she would survive.
As citizens of nations where we have a right to speak, through our votes, we can elect those people who are most likely to care and who are able to push agreements and treaties on environemental issues through on a global and national level; we would want representatives who would agree on forgetting the "debts" of the poorer countries hence giving them a chance to catch up with us in more way than one; we would want people who don't care about the differences between people (colour,religion or filosophy), who wouldn't go for spheres of influences but who would with genuine concern for this world as a whole talk, but even more so, listen to the concerns and points of view other nations have and would be able to reach a concesus.
Utopia? *sigh*...I am afraid so...
Walk in Light,
Star*
Political Future
Uncle Ghengis Posted Sep 16, 2002
Ah yes.
Democracy - the worst sort of government, apart from all the others. (I can't remember who said that... I'll go look it up.)
Equally I can't remember exactly, the Douglas Adams quote about the Oglanuts - other than the entire civilisation in question lived in a tree and denied the existence of the rest of the forest.
I'm sure that water and other resources will indeed become part of that 'engine' that drives us towards a world which is more and more regulated (by the UN ?)
I'm not saying it won't be necessary, just that it won't be very nice (for those of us who are used to 'relative freedom')
Political Future
PaulBateman Posted Sep 16, 2002
Is it likely that corporate power will take over from political power?
Apparently in some companies, employees have to chant the company slogan first thing in the morning. And aren't some corporate bosses just as oppressive as politicians? An example is a certian food company 'forcing' Africans to use baby formula instead of allowing mothers to use breast milk to feed their babies. (Hence, the boycot of a certain comedy award in Edinburg last year by many comedians) Will people in the future pledge their allegiance to fast food companies and soft drinks companiess rather than their country? Do people already do this?
A world government is unlikely as it would mean countries having to come to some sort of agreement with each other about various issues. The Earth Summit was an example of where such talks broke down and only watered down ideas about water were decided upon. It is also difficult for these people to decide on the middle ground as they come from very different backgrounds and so have have very different opions about things.
Pessimism
La Fiametta Posted Sep 16, 2002
It seems that everyone is so pessimistic about the future! It may seem right now that we are in a more precarious position than many our ancestors were, but nature always balances out...maybe through a plague or something....ok so that wasn't pessimism, but hey, its better than the destruction of the earth.
I don't think the UN will ever become a world power because none of the main leaders such as the US will ever allow it to. The UN has been characterized by utter inefficiency since it was created and to see this one has only to look at the repeated threats to Iraq "Let us in to view your weapons, or else" and the subsequent "Or else what?" and the sheepish looking donwards and avoiding of eyes by the UN who have tried to forget that they made those threats in the first place. Oh no, the UN will not be taking over anytime soon.
Now as for the big leaders there will probably end up being some sort of power struggle between any number of the US, EU, China, and the Islamic World. But as scary as that thought is in light of the weapons of mass distruction that man has created, do we really think that anyone would go so far to use them? Well i take that in part back because it is obvious that some factions such as Al Quaida do not fear death as long as they feel their goals are accomplished, but in all reality there is a self preservational streak in man that will save us. (Comments on that? those thoughts are derived from my limited experience)
But you know it might not be a bad idea to find a little corner of the world to hide while they sort it all out, though i suspect we may have some years yet.
Pessimism
Uncle Ghengis Posted Sep 17, 2002
I tried pessimism.
But I knew it wouldn't work!
No, seriously, there are apparently moves to have some form of global taxation, and a UN 'standing army', and of course there's the new international court. Of course these things haven't happened yet, but there are many powerful people who are pushing for them. And big 'threats' (wars, famines, disasters etc...) all help their cause. The UN don't need to actually solve any of these, they merely need to make vague promises to try.
Actually, I quite like the UN - at the moment. Kofi Annan (sp?) seems like a good guy - with his head screwed on. But it still worries me what the UN might 'become'...
Commercial power? - yes - just another part of the mix in our new global power struggle. (Although the thought of owing allegience to Ronald McDonald is a scary thought indeed!)
Pessimism
star of taliesin Posted Sep 17, 2002
Greetings,
(Although the thought of owing allegience to Ronald McDonald is a scary thought indeed!)
*grin* Yes, I would indeed...
This thought makes the worries and concerns of the anti-globalists a wee bit more understandable though. However the future may turn out (and I think we all agree a lot of changes need to be made) I would hate to live in a world where there is no more room for individualism and diversity. Imagine going for a trip around the world and find everywhere and I mean EVERYWHERE (from Bombay to Sydney, from Berlin to Mexico City,from Addis Abeba to Peking) the same fast food restaurants, the same shopping malls...everything the same. We all eat Mc Donalds,dress in Calvin Klein, listen to Eminem...no more room for different colours,smells,views,music,filosophies...in short different cultures.
THAT is scary.
The UN has proven to be useful at times, although it has changed rather fast into a burocratic mastodont. With some more room to move and the necessary authority (agreed on by all member-nations...*grin*...that in itself is an Utopia, but let's, for arguments sake say it would be possible) the UN could be a very valuable organisation towards global understanding and worldpeace. First step would maybe have to be: equal votes,equal influence and equal right for ALL nations.As it stands right now, one could say:all are equal before the law, only some are more equal than others.
Somehow I don't think all nations would be happy with this deal and taking the necessary first step could prove to be far more difficult than just going on with the way things are.
Let us give the UN some time to grow up: it still is a very young organisation and hasn't even reached full maturity yet ...reluctant and recalcitrant teenagers have grown up into valuable adults before...miracles keep happening...
Walk in Light /|
Star*
Pessimism
Timmy Fish Posted Sep 17, 2002
I think you lot who are talking about finding a corner of the world to hide in are bloody stupid! With wepons of mass destruction being made you'll still be blown up. I'm going to find and move to a small planet as soon as I can, where I will be served by armies of little monkeys, little monkeys wearing HATS!
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Political Future
- 1: Uncle Ghengis (Sep 16, 2002)
- 2: PaulBateman (Sep 16, 2002)
- 3: star of taliesin (Sep 16, 2002)
- 4: Uncle Ghengis (Sep 16, 2002)
- 5: PaulBateman (Sep 16, 2002)
- 6: La Fiametta (Sep 16, 2002)
- 7: Uncle Ghengis (Sep 17, 2002)
- 8: PaulBateman (Sep 17, 2002)
- 9: star of taliesin (Sep 17, 2002)
- 10: Timmy Fish (Sep 17, 2002)
- 11: Uncle Ghengis (Sep 18, 2002)
- 12: Timmy Fish (Sep 18, 2002)
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