h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

Well, it looks like all of our worst nightmares are about to come true.

The blown rig in the Gulf of Mexico near Louisiana has been spewing approximately 128,000 gallons of crude oil a day into the water. Weather has hampered all attempts to corral the oil, and even to burn off what they might be able to.

The Loop Current of the Gulf of Mexico is part of the Gulf Stream complex. It circles the Gulf and flows through the Florida Straits before becoming part of the much larger Gulf Stream flowing up the east coast of the U.S. and heading over to Iceland, the UK, and points north.

We thought that they had about a month to try to corral the spill once the weather broke. They are now telling us that we can probably expect the first effects of the spill here in Key West in about four days time.

This will do what 9/11, hurricanes, and recession have failed to do; it will put us out of commission completely. This island is fueled by ocean and eco-tourism, and that is going to be over. They estimate that if it spreads this way, it will be twenty years before we are clear of the effects. Dead reefs, contaminated water, and big nasty globs of oil all over the sea floor are not good for tourism.

This should be an interesting week as corporate and government try to contain the damage before we are all out of business.

Well, today's the day...

State park service patrols reported that they found tarballs on the beach at Ft. Zachary Taylor this morning about 0230 our time. Sea water tends to weather crude oil into balls of tar after a short period of time, and apparently they are already here.

Tidal outflows between the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic are pretty brisk at that end of the island, and the machinery seems to be working very effectively.

Many many volunteers have been trained, and I'm sure they will be out in force at this notification.

Will let you know what develops today...

Never let the facts get in the way of a good panic rumor.

Some fact checking reveals that these tarballs wash up in the Keys about 600 times a year, primarily from some jackass releasing motor oil from his outboard motor crankcase.

The oil from the spill will require 60-120 days of salt water wave action before it breaks down into tarballs, so the math doesn't add up.

What we will get is the unbroken raw crude oil goo right on the beach and rocks. It will also hit the Dry Tortugas, Sanibel, Captiva and Cedar Key before it ever hits here, so we'll have some advance notice.

Right now, it seems we have about ten days before we goo up. You should have seen people going from logical to completely freaking out yesterday, and the talk radio was insane.

NOAA has made a couple of predictions about the oil spill.

One is that the Loop Current is forming an eddy, and that will direct the oil right back up where it came from.

The second is a tropical invest, which is a low pressure cell that will often develop into a tropical wave, depression, or storm. The invest is East of the Bahamas right now, following a wave of high pressure toward the Gulf of Mexico. This would bring winds which will blow the oil back toward its point of origin.

All of this is good for us, but terrible for Louisiana.

There is always schadenfreude about hurricanes and where they will hit, and this is much the same. You don't want them to hit anybody, but if they have to hit something, let it not be us this time. We hold our collective breath until they pass us by, then grieve for the people who are about to receive.

I just don't know how much more the people of Louisiana can take.

Here, courtesy of WIRED magazine, is a computer sim of what could happen within the next ninety days. Apparently, the Gulf Stream travels at 100 miles per day.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/06/gulf-oil-could-spread-to-atlantic-coast/

Please watch at your own risk; this is pretty disheartening when you actually see it.

(I really don't know what to say, it's on the news hear every bulletin, and I am thinking of you each time)

I just heard they finally succeeded in closing the hole. let's hope it stays that way

really? That's nothing short of miraculous

They have succeeded in placing the regulator cap over the section of pipe that they cut away yesterday. Apparently, they will try to connect the siphon to it today.

This is the first encouraging news this week, for sure.

Hold on to that thought

if it were here:

http://www.ifitwasmyhome.com/#loc=Copenhagen%2C+Kobenhavns+Amt%2C+Denmark&lat=55.683&lng=12.483&x=12.483&y=55.683&z=6

Received photos from a friend of the beaches in Pensacola, Florida today. There was quite a lot of wave action during Tropical Storm/Minor Hurricane Alex (which hit South Texas and Mexico) and it apparently did a good bit of churning in the Central Gulf.

While the pictures are hard to look at, it's nowhere near as bad as most people imagined it might be (yet.) They certainly have the people trained and hired to deal with it, and we can get on with it. There's nothing worse than the withering dread of the unknown. Once you know a tree has fallen on your house, you can deal with it.

Since the relief well drilling has resumed after the storm, it seems the work continues apace and will meet the August target date.

In the meantime, the storm and related weather seem to have pushed the spill further west toward Louisiana and Texas, and the loop current seems to have no interest in bringing any of it southward toward us at the moment.

So now we will wait and see what we actually have to deal with.

These folks are providing a lot of good coverage. There are also pictures here:

http://www.thegovmonitor.com/world_news/united_states/florida-outlines-bp-gulf-oil-spill-response-for-july-9-2010-35246.html

Thank you KWDave for your so informed approach and information.

But to me the only thing is that one should not drill in such deep water. I remember when the oil rigs first worked in the North Sea. I was both horrified and in awe of them. My son in law, who was nearing 20 at the time workred on one. I thought he was so brave.

When he came with my daughter two weeks ago to visit me from south Africa I told him how scared I had been and how brave I thought he was. He just smiled.

We really should go back to horse and carts I think. !!

Kind regards for your so enlightening and sensible approach to this probably global problem.

Very sincerely,

Christiane
AR80

Friday 9th July, 2010 19.00 BST

Our thoughts here in the UK are very much with you, the people and the wildlife.

I have been collecting hair to send to make booms which seem to be very effective. I hope they are not needed as much as it appears.

Thanks for the updated info.

Websailor

we must find a better way - and hopefully in time we will

wind turbines may not be the answer alltogether

but we have all the hydrogen that we need