h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

This a little worrisome...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/210636.shtml?3day
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

If the storm takes any of the tracks marked XTRP, BAMM and CONU, it could get a bit nasty here at... well, I haven't yet given the place a new name since I changed my handle again.

Oh bloody hell - it's the weekend of the Austin City Limits festival too...

I was thinking of you (and all those people who eventually evacuated to Houston to be safe from the mess in N.O.) when I saw the computer models.


Of course, this *is* a hurricane, and we know that they can be pretty unpredictable, as evidenced by the way Ophelia did loop-de-loops and curliques in the Atlantic for days and days, being constantly re-classified as a hurricane then back down to tropical storm, then back to hurricane, over and over, never quite coming ashore. Didn't stop it from doing a lot of damage in NC though. I haven't seen anything about it since Rita became a threat though, so I don't know if it's drifted back out to sea, or if there's still concern about it hitting the Northeast.

Rita could just as easily cut across the keys, then back across the Florida peninsula, as take any of the (so far) projected tracks, but it's pretty clear it'll build up more strength in the gulf over the next couple of days.

It's funny, you know, the head-in-the-sand attitude of Bush to climate change, then two huge storms within a matter of weeks threaten the US. Never mind the black clouds: the skies are darkening with the wings of chickens flying home to roost.

We have *many* named tropical storms each year, most of which never make landfall, many of which never even reach hurricane status. Rita is not a particularly large storm, by hurricane standards. At this hour, it's winds are not even quite hurricane status. Ophelia caused so much damage simply because it was such a slow moving storm, because it never reached more than minimal hurricane status.

Don't get me wrong, even at moderate tropical storm windspeeds, a storm is capable of causing a storm surge and damage to poorly constructed buildings, but there's a huge difference between the winds generated by borderline tropical storm/hurricane strength storms like Ophelia or(so far)Rita, and the catastrophic damage wreaked by a category 4-5 hurricane like Katrina.

Historically, there were twice as many category 4 and 5 storms between 1900 and 1950 than from 1950 to 2000.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/Table4.htm

Hurricanes occurred prior to 1900, but the records are incomplete, because there are no records of their intensity, and the only ones recorded are those that happened to be observed, because they affected sea travel or made landfall affecting a populated area.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-hc-canehistory1,0,3352010.special?coll=sfla-news-hurricane

Go ahead and blame climate change for melting icebergs if you like, but one intense storm (Katrina, which reached land as a category 4, even though it was a category 5 for a while in the gulf) is hardly what could be construed as conclusive evidence that climate change is responsible for a sudden increase in intense storms.

Only time will tell what will happen with Rita, of course.

So these people are taling rubbish?http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4249138.stm

Actually, as I read that article I noticed that there are only *some* scientists saying that climate change is causing the problem. Other scientists are seeing it as a 60-70 year cycle of storms.

My statistics were also based purely on Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico hurricane history, whereas the ones mentioned in this article are based on *all* intense storms, including hurricanes, cyclones and tornados.

The main problem I see with concluding that man is somehow responsible for an increase in intense storms is that we really only have fairly complete records from the past 100 years or so.

The *earliest* record we have of a hurricane is from Columbus' time. How many storms occurred in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico in the centuries before Columbus sailed? What about Pacific cyclones during those years? How many storms, intense or tropical, formed in the oceans, but never came anywhere near land during those centuries? We have plenty we know of that do that now, so we just don't know how many there might have been in past centuries. Even our early 1900's records may be incomplete, since radar wasn't invented until WWII, and records would only be based on direct sightings from aircraft and ships. Satellite observation has been available an even shorter time.

Most of the tornados worldwide occur in the US, but remember that the portion of the US where most of them occur has only been occupied by anyone bothering to keep such records for about 200 years. How many tornadoes formed in largely uninhabited parts of the land before that time? Tornadoes don't go very far and are not on the ground for very long, so in a sparsely populated area the size of the Midwest region, if a wandering tribe of Native Americans didn't happen to be in the immediate area, it would have been be very easy for one to form, touch down, and disappear unnoticed by the human eye.

My point is that the storms (as well as any climate changes) could very well be just a cyclic weather phase that occurs every 100 years, or every 1000 years or every 10,000 years. In the total history of the world, it hardly seems logical to me to base the conclusion that man is responsible on such a limited time frame of reference.

"My point is that the storms (as well as any climate changes) could very well be just a cyclic weather phase that occurs every 100 years, or every 1000 years or every 10,000 years. In the total history of the world, it hardly seems logical to me to base the conclusion that man is responsible on such a limited time frame of reference."

But can we afford to take that chance? I and many others don't think so. And whether or not global warming causes storms, it's pretty certain that it has numerous other deleterious effects. Even if it isn't more hurricanes, then it's a fairly safe bet that *something* bad is going to happen as a result of it.

It's true that Rita's not particularly big or powerful at the moment (just been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane this morning), but it was Katrina's journey over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico that fueled it and increased its intensity as it travelled from Florida to Louisiana. Rita will be over those waters for much longer if it follows the forecast track to Texas. I'm sure there are more factors involved in the eventual size and power of a hurricane, just as there in what determines the size of a tornado, but it's enough to keep me worried right now.

Yes, usually hurricanes gain a lot of strength while meandering through the relatively warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

I sincerely hope that for the sake of those in the coastal areas, this one doesn't do that. A category 2 or 3 will be more than strong enough, and drop more than sufficient rain as it works it way inland, no matter where it comes ashore, thank-you-very-much.

I heard it's been upgraded to Cat 2 now, which is even more worrying, given that it's got a lot of Gulf to cross before reaching land. And the slower they move, the stronger they get. I remember watching TC Bev slow down as it got closer to Cairns (where I was living) in 2000 Very scary indeed. Keep your hatches batoned BH.

I hate hurricanes. They're so depressing.

I'll definitely be keeping an eye on the news, in regards to you and my relatives in Austin.

Here are some pages you can use to keep track of what's going on with Rita:

http://www.news8austin.com/content/weather/
http://www.news8austin.com/Content/Weather/Tropics/Tracker/Gulf/?SatRadImage=TRACKER_GULF
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024155.shtml?3day

With the projected five-day track it looks as if it will pass to the east of Austin and perhaps swing close by Dallas-Fort Worth, by which time it'll be several hundred miles inland, but still quite powerful I'd imagine, if it gets up to category 4 as they're predicting.

Hope all of you waiting to see what happens with the Hurricane path stay safe.

I'm scheduled to work on Saturday, which is when the storm is likely to be closest to the city

And ya know what? The temps are still gonna be in the bloody 90s all weekend Well, except for Saturday when it'll be in the upper 80s. We got up to 98/36.7 today, and may even be a degree or two hotter on Wednesday and Thursday before the outer bands of the hurricane start to affect us. It should be around 89/31.7 at this time of the year

I will be thinking of you BH and I hope that Gosho towers survives

* struggles to remember his Geography A-level stuff *

Once a hurricane hits land it starts to fall apart as a storm system. So if you're several hundred miles in land and it hits near you, you should be OK, shouldn't you?

If it continues to gain strength (to be expected, as it has only just started moving over the warm gulf waters since last night, and has already reached category 4 status), it's winds will still pack quite a punch, even a few hundred miles inland.

The rain is also a concern, as parts of Austin tend to flood easily, based on the experiences Gos-whatsit has related to us about Cheapos flooding in the past. (I hope Whatsit towers is at least on the 2nd floor!) Depending on the physical size of the storm when it reaches land, it can continue to pick up moisture from the gulf long after it has reached land and been downgraded in strength several times, easily dropping several inches of rain over a few hours.

Also of concern is that no matter where it finally makes landfall, the eastern edge of the storm will likely produce tornadoes.

(In addition to the threat to Texas, if N.O. gets even a couple of inches of rain from this - quite possible, even if the eye makes landfall hundreds of miles away - the already weakened levees could give way and flood the city again.)

Lady Scott knows her meteorology

Yes, even after having travelled several hundred miles inland, a hurricane can still be devastating, especially one as big as Katrina which was 400-500 miles across. If Rita takes the forecast track, Austin will be on the western side of the storm centre, which is by far the best place to be if you've got to experience such a storm. The eastern side always sees the worst of the weather, but the chief meteorologist of News 8 Austin (yes LHG, Burton ) was forecasting winds for us of 30-80mph on Saturday if Rita comes ashore as category four, and several inches of rain. Areas to the east of the hurricane might get 15" of rain, and in the great Lamar flood of ought one, we only had 10" of rain in six hours. I bet Jason's getting very twitchy right now at the thought of Shoal Creek making another unwelcome foray into the shop.

And unfortunately, the former Oojakapiv Mansions is on the ground floor (first floor for you Americans ).

I'm thinking of calling it the Beige Hole of Calcutta (cos that's what colour the carpet is, although that could change by Sunday )... do you think that would be out of order?