h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

So the tories unfortunately have woken up to the fact that the Quiet Man is a great title for a novel but not for the leader of your party, especially when the Government is in deep trouble.

So do we need a strong leader who might affect the Lib Dems changes of becoming the official opposition. OF do we want another weak leader, IDS to continue as a lame duck or even a split in the party.

This is Big Gov you decide. We'll actually the small number of tory MPs decide the first bit.

I railed against IDS in during the last leadership election, but now I think he's doing a wonderful job. The Tories are getting more and more divided and demoralised by the day. Keep it up, quiet guy!

VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!VOTE IDS!!!

"I railed against IDS in during the last leadership election, but now I think he's doing a wonderful job. The Tories are getting more and more divided and demoralised by the day. Keep it up, quiet guy!"

I think that's a crazy way of thinking, to be honest. I would much, much prefer a moderate Conservative party as opposition because it would mean that if they defeated the Labour Party (and Blair and co cannot possibly remain in power forever) in a general election we would have an old-fashioned moderate Tory government rather than a strident ideological one such as Thatcher's. IDS is partly relying (much as the far-left Labour party of the 1980s did) on the British people voting him in through becoming tired of the incumbents and then using this to oversee a divisive government. Sorry, but that's something I never want to see.

It's the Tory Party's last chance to elect Ken Clarke and give themselves a chance. Let's hope they take it. With a strong, popular, moderate politician as a leader of the opposition the Labour dictatorship will at least have to consider their moves more carefully. Much as I agree with the Lib Dems they have no influence in the current parliament, and a close result in the next election either way will help to show the apathetic idiots that make up 95% of the electorate, voting or non voting, what real politics (realpolitik) is all about.
Hoping IDS hangs in there with no authority is a very short sighted view both for the country and the Lib Dems. Look at your history. The LD's have only ever had any influence in hung parliaments or parliaments with small majorities. We voted for Christmas in 79. Let's not sit about wishing for Christmas now.
SBE

Ken Clarke does seem remarkably humanoid for a Tory, but that's precisely why the Tory membership will never elect him leader. The only way the Tories will end up with a leader capable of winning a General Election is if the MPs present the membership with two centrist candidates for the final run-off - and that'd lead to more unrest among the Tory troops and public in-fighting within the party. I honestly don't think it's unrealistic to hope for the Tories to self-destruct like the Liberal Party did in the early 20th Century

Imagine there's no electable Tory Party for the forseeable future. It's easy if you try. You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one...

Sorry Ormondroyd, but a self destructing Tory party will only benefit Labour, not the Lib Dems. A dream is all very well, but it won't get the LDs any closer to the centre of power. Don't forget that Blair shafted the LDs on PR ruining the chance of their party to have a real say. You can't see them doing anything for the country only their greed for power. Real change requires men to act AND dream.
SBE

Yes Tony Blair did shaft us over PR when he got into p[ower with an exceptional majority. However a fracturing Tory party does help us.

It should allow us to be seen as a sensible opposition after the next general election. People still think of us a party of the looney fringe. The electorate in most of the country, sadly, are not yet aware of the sensible policies that the Lib Dems have brought into law as Labour's partners in Scotland. We need more spotlight on us to do this.

Historically we lost support following Lloyd George as we lost relevance, a role which Labour had grown into. This is the point that the conservatives are currently slipping into. They are not offering real alternatives to Labour which fit in with todays society. Some of the policies that IDS has mooted recently are even direct rip offs of Lib Dem policies, or at least variations on the theme. The time for a shift in the political landscape has arrived. I hope the electorate realise that soon.

I take your point DD, and I agree with your historical precedent, but I can't see enough people leaving the Tory Party to make it a fringe group. The liberals as they were may have been in a similar situation, but times have changed. What we're faced with is the prospect of a lame duck opposition of 200 or so seats that is going nowhere. Unpalatable as it may seem the best chance for us is to work with a stronger Tory party to defeat Labour on real issues. For that to happen the majority must be small and the opposition credible. As you tacitly admit the public isn't ready to accept the LDs as a party of government. A Lib/Tory pact in the event of a hung parliament or small majority is still our best chance of real influence. Sorry.

By the way, isn't it great to have a proper intellectual exchange of views on politics. It's a cut above most threads.
SBE

I left Labour to join the Liberal Democrats and find a left-of-centre alternative to the reactionary, authoritarian Blair government, not to align with the Tories. Why board a sinking ship?

The Tories' membership is ageing and dwindling: see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3171194.stm for details. As DD has suggested, I really don't think it's over-optimistic at all to hope that they can continue to decline and that the Lib Dems can fill the vacancy for an opposition.

I alos pointed out that realisitically in the next 2/3 years the Lib Dems are not going to be yet in a position in the public conciosuness on a nationawide level to over haul labour. The best we realistically can hope for is to be Her Majesty's Official Opposition.

However as with Ormy and many other disillussioned political activists they are turning to the Lib Dems as the party who actually have the ploicies that account for todays society not the Tory flauderings or the quasi-Thacherism of New Labour. Brent East was nowhere near normal Lib Dem territory however unlike the Tory lap dog who rolled and played dead, Sarah Teather and her colleagues fought a long battle on issues and moved from thrid to take Ken Livingstone's, of all people, old seat.

Some glorious stuff from the great Simon Hoggart in today's 'Guardian': 'This looks likely to be the fourth leadership election in eight years. The Tories seem to work their way through leaders like other people get new cars, except that a new car will get you somewhere. The elections have a ritual quality by now, like the Boat Race. Nobody much cares who wins, but they'd miss it if it stopped... Heaven knows what the Tories would do if they ever found a leader they liked. They'd have nothing to do to fill the empty hours.'

Let's be fair though, one of those elections was self inflicted bythe leader (John Major resigned to stand for re-election in 1995).
Oberon2001
PS A1051769 Getting Rid of a Tory Party Leader

Needs updating that possibly later today.

Off to check out news on PMQs today now.

Yes, the wind is blowing in the Lib Dems direction, but the support is too evenly spread throughout the country. With no real heartland outside the South West its a very slow building job.
You must have heard the activists in the 2 main parties at election time. Don't vote for the Lib Dems because they'll let the other lot in by default. Sadly it's still an argument that the voters believe all too readily. The idea of a Liberal vote being a wasted vote still holds sway in many areas. Being second in so many constituencies makes progress paradoxically difficult. Whereas before the LDs surprised the incumbents as they smeared their 'main rivals' the smears are now being aimed in our direction.
Scotland is an area ripe for progress to be made, as is Wales, but south and east of those borders the English electorate are in total ignorance of the rest of the soon to be disunited kingdom. When Scotland makes the final break the policies that the Lib Dems espouse will finally be recognised. At the moment all that the English know about Scotland is that it has 2 football teams!!
I know siding with the Tories is anathema to you, and rightly so, but I can only say welcome to the dark and nasty world of opposition. Opposition stinks and its better to sup with the devil to improve your chances, rather than remain saintly above the fray. The public regard such behaviour as cowardice, not a sign of morality. Don't forget no one believes politicians anyway when they claim the moral high ground. Blair has made that particular spot his own and devalued it beyond repair.
You don't believe for a minute that the Lib/Lab pact was anything more than pure expediency do you? Read the accounts of those times. Callaghan may have treated Thorpe with more respect, but that was only because he was a more decent man. How much power was offered? None. How much advantage accrued? None. At least getting under the skin of an increasingly unpopular government would give us more kudos with the public.
In Lancashire the Lib Dems were merely seen as lapdogs of Blair and the Labour party. It was, and is, commonly believed that the LDs would oppose the Tories on anything, even if it was in the public interest. I've heard people say that if the Tories proposed and costed the raising of the old age pension by 50 pounds a week the LDs would oppose them on principle.
In Kent the party is still regarded as a communist off shoot!! The old line about 'I'll be buggered if I vote Liberal' still raises a laugh!! They are still thought of as (and I quote) 'the brown hatters party'
Two snapshots of pub talk in different areas. Maybe not representative. Certainly not scientific. What they are is indications of how far we still have to go to become a credible second party.
Long winded reply over. Are you still awake at the back?
SBE

Can you really be that sweeping about perceptions of the Lib Dems in entire counties, SBE? Here in Bradford it's a very patchy picture. In some inner city areas we struggle to take third place, but there are Lib Dem councillors in many of the leafier areas. That's in just one city - I couldn't begin to generalise about West Yorkshire.

I can, however, unequivocally state that I'm glad I don't have to drink in those pubs you're quoting from.

I didn't say they were generalisations, sweeping or otherwise. I said they were indications. Why wouldn't you like to drink in those pubs? The beer is pretty good. The people are genuine, friendly and funny. For the most part they are not university graduates, but they have their own strengths and their own views. We just don't agree politically because of our differing experiences.

Are you only interested in people who agree with you politically? The trouble with that attitude is that you can't get a picture of what your opponents are thinking. If you are going to effectively battle misconceptions you have to know what they are. I can argue against advocates of either main party because I've listened to their views and worked out responses to those views. The trouble with activists of any party is that they become too used to talking to like minded people, or knocking on doors to be met with people who don't want to discuss politics.

Moving on to the new political landscape. Howard could be the LDs worst nightmare. Why? He will allow the tories to reconnect with their core support from the Thatcher years. Essex man/woman remembers the loadsamoney days of the 80s and he has the reputation of a 'true Tory' in those areas. If it is to be a coronation it will prove to the public that the Tories are changing. I'll wager that the next election will be very closely fought if that is the case. Look for Howard to land some very telling blows on a very wobbly Blair. The public is ready for a real fight and they are going to get one.
SBE

It's not the core Tory vote that needs shoring up but the floaters and the fringe support that needs shoring up. I don't think Howard has the charisma to pull those votes in for them. Maybe a few but not enough

Well, sbe, it sounds as if you're probably a more useful Lib Dem activist than me. That's fine - I have no desire for political office. I am willing to talk to people I disagree with, but not to pass the time of day with the sort of ignorant homophobes you apparently find in those pubs you've mentioned. I have a history of trouble, so in the interests of self-preservation I've given up and try to avoid people who are bad for my blood pressure, as your drinking buddies certainly would be.

And I agree with DD's analysis of Michael 'Creature of the Night' Howard's prospects. There was another priceless media moment on 'Newsnight' last night. Jeremy Paxman to a Tory spokesman: 'Do you think the British public are ready to accept a leader with Transylvanian origins?'