h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

It looks like trouble may be rearing its head in Kosovo again. The Kosovan President is expected to announce independence unilaterally and is being supported by the US in this aim. The European peacemakers have all but conceded defeat and Russia is expected to use its veto to reject any UN recognition of Kosovan Independence at the behest of its ally, Serbia. The Serb President has promised to use all available means to keep Kosovo part of Serbia.

The 15,000 strong NATO peacekeeping force is preparing for hostilities and there is talk of a UK rapid reaction force being sent.

How do Forumites feel this one will pan out?

>>...and there is talk of a UK rapid reaction force being sent<<

from where? and just When would a 'rapid reaction' force be deployed?

I wished that Kosovo would be independent.
But than I myself get a problem.
What?
Well, that we destine a country for only one ethnic population and that is an extremely dangerous act. We can see that from history and it would give all kinds of ethnic minorities the right for "their very own country", like the Basqes in Spain, the Tamils in Srilanca, etc.

But I fully realize that when your own family is killed only because of ethnic cleaning, you never want those, related to them, living nextdoor to you.

I predict there isn't going to be another war in Kosovo, I'll say that outright. The current Serbian government is not Milosevic and it won't gamble good relations with the EU and US over that province.

I think a compromise will be reached whereby Kosovo is given extensive self-government (in the Palestinian territories manner) without being given any independence to satisfy Serbian nationalism and temper Kosovan nationalism.

I don't think the United States has enough influence in Europe any more for their support of Kosovan independence to be a tipping factor, to be honest. I think the EU and Russia will likely determine the outcome with the US eventually taking the EU's position.

As for British "rapid reaction force" I have to ask where this information comes from. We're already fighting a war on two fronts as it is and the army are infamously underfunded.

The British Rapid Reaction Force will take the form of Peter Mandelson grabbing a photo opportunity.

I think there'll be a bit of tit for tat violence, but I can't see it escalating to a fulltime war.

I heard the bit about the extra troops from some talking head on the telly. A bit of digging reveals that a Battalion is to be sent early next year.

Interesting Lords debate, exploring the possibility of seperatist groups elsewhere in the Balkans agitating for independence and the possibility for violence.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldhansrd/text/71129-0002.htm

There's been tit-for-tat violence in Kosovo since the 1980s - it's nothing new.

As for whether Kosovo will decide to go it alone, I think it's anybody's guess, but I'm inclining towards the idea they'll go for self-government while nominally part of Serbia, perhaps similar to the set up of the Aland Islands in Finland.

I think any declaration of independence is unlikely to come until January, Christmas isn't usually a good time for making new countries and aggravating the Russians in winter usually leads to your gas supplies being cut off (ask the Ukrainians and the Georgians about that one).

I do think some of the doom-mongers are exaggerating the impact of Kosovan independence somewhat. The EU has been unusually united on the issue, with only a couple of nay-sayers, and has actually taken the lead, rather than the US. While Serbia can ask for Russian assistance, the EU can twist Serbia's arm pretty effectively and get them to call off the bear.

The issue of other minority groups seeking independence is something of a red herring - the main examples being given are the Serb Bosnian republic, and Serbian Krajina in Croatia. Croatia will be the 28th member of the EU fairly soon, and the Bosnian Serbs are in no position to dictate terms or issue demands. If they did seek and acquire independence, I suspect they'd end up frozen states like Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the trans-Dniestran republic - recognised by Russia and a few allies, but ignored by everyone else.

It'll be interesting to watch though