h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

I never thought this would happen but it looks like the MDC may actually oust Mugabe via... an election.

The MDC have made it clear in the past that Mugabe was a dictator and that election were a waste of time; they said they only contested them because their supporters insisted. And yet now they're claiming "victory" in the elections they said were a pointless exercise.

It's possible to say the MDC were hypocrites but I don't think it was hyperbole, we all saw that happened to their leader when Mugabe's goons got their hands on him. My personal theory is this: Mugabe was stung by opposition accusations and so decided to hold a free election but he had his goons police polling booths (opposition supporters claim police were mysteriously present at booths to "help voters with disabilities" which backs this up) and also relied on his large support in the countryside hoping that the two combined would hand ZANU-PF a clear victory so he could claim that an election had taken place and the opposition had lost. However, this gamble appears not to have paid off with anti-Mugabe feeling running so high that voters were pretty-much jumping through hoops to vote for the opposition. Dictatorial regimes sitting on top of constitutional "democracies" usually cling to power by keeping a core vote and supplementing it with vote-rigging, phantom votes, intimidation, control of the press etc etc. In this case Mugabe seems to have been confident of holding power (there are allegations of vote-rigging and observers caught the government registering 2,000-odd voters on an empty patch of land) only to be overwhelmed by the sheer feeling against him.

However, I really can't see Mugabe stepping-down. He faces being charged over... well pretty much every abuse he's carried out whilst in power. When dictators step-down they usually cover their backsides and, depressingly, there are talks of a "deal" being struck. If true, it almost certainly means Mugabe securing immunity from prosecution in return for conceding power.

Additionally, Mugabe hasn't been seen in public since the election which has lead to speculation he's fled.

I'm still astonished this is happening; I'd expected Mugabe to soldier on until he died or there was a coup against him followed by free elections. This gives hope to other countries where there is crypto-dictatorship but the constitutional means to fight them at the ballot-box.

Lets hope eh!

It would be a grand thing for a dictator to be toppled by democratic means. Hopefully that would set a trend for the best way to accomplish things.

However I ain't heard no fat lady.....

Morning Zagreb,

It has been a source of amazement to me that Mugabe has not attracted much wider criticism from outside Zimbabwe.

We, and the African nations have stood by now for years whilst he plundered the wealth of the land for his own good, and that of his henchmen. Men such has He, and Saddam before him, rule by fear and favouritism.

It defies belief that people both inside the country , and perhaps more so the surrounding African States, can support a man who has brought a country to its knees. Does nobody in Africa ask "what has he done FOR his country?"

Novo

Well that is kinda the point, for many in Africa he was a heroe who stood up to the yoke of imperial opression. His defeat of white minority rule gave him great status.

Because of that a lot of them have effectively turned a blind eye to what has happened more recently.

CBC here is saying that parliament is changing but the presidential vote count still hasn't been released.

I smell a change!!

ZANU-PF has lost its majority in Parliament according to the official figures; there's also likely to be a "runoff" in the Presidential election.

Mugabe can't even rig an election properly

It's not over yet, though. Mugabe hasn't conceded power and whether the army and the police are on his side could well be key factors if he decides to shrug-off constitutional law. Having said that, even someone as arrogant as Mugabe must realise now that he's finished.

Another thing that I mentioned above is that this demonstrates that the MDC's pessimism about elections - claiming that they were a waste of time - has been proved wrong. That might give hope to those in Belarus and Russia.

Evening Zagreb,

<< Another thing that I mentioned above is that this demonstrates that the MDC's pessimism about elections - claiming that they were a waste of time - has been proved wrong. That might give hope to those in Belarus and Russia.>>

Now that is an interesting thought...........

Novo

Still I repeat my "I aint heard no fat lady" bit.

It aint over, till its over.

I see Mugabe is now trying to stir up a land grab by the vetrans again - saying that farms must not be handed back to the white man - and implying that it's what will happen when he's gone.

Anything to hang on to power! (He knows what'll happen to him otherwise...)

Vicky

And now the electoral committee have been arrested.......

I actually thought that the MDC might be proved wrong and the elections just might create the leverage to unseat Mugabe but it now looks like this isn't happening. Presumably the MDC majority in Parliament doesn't count for much if Parliament is a toothless talking-shop (as they often are in faux-democracies like Zimbabwe) and Mugabe seems to be stepping-up his efforts to re-secure his power.

I'm not sure what can now be done. The MDC have very wisely avoided any open confrontation with the government because they know (and Mugabe has frequently indicated) that any sort of rebellion will give Mugabe the excuse he needs to crack-down on the MDC and effectively ban them as a political movement.

Which proves Mugabe has rat cunning! It's a young disaster...

Vicky

If there ever was a case for us intervening I think this probably is it. It wouldn't take much but if something doesn't happen soon there won't be a country left.

There already isn't. No infrastructure, no food, 80% unemployment, 100,000% inflation. It's a fire-sale.

But this is definitely a case where outside interference is very tricky. Who is going to do it? The African Union need to step in now, but I haven't seen anything in the news to indicate that they are willing.

Intervention would be very difficult. Military intervention is a no-no because a) where to invade from and b) Mugabe still commands significant support in the countryside and that means he's got a ready-made army to fight a guerilla war. A foreign intervention would also give Mugabe the excuse to declare emergency law and start persecuting the opposition as brutally as he likes.

Diplomatic intervention? Well, it's what we've been doing but, as Orwell noted, it's a truism that tyrants can stand all the moral force you can throw at them.

Economic intervention? What would that achieve; the country is already an economic basket-case.

The best thing would be for the African democracies to deal with Zimbabwe and, as we've seen, they've shown precious little desire to do so.

Then we have to say: we're keeping out of it. I can understand the desire/need for humanitarian aid to continue (or start?) but apart from that - we can do nothing.

I expect that Britain and the ex-colonial powers in particular really should not intervene too strongly if possibly. Better to work behind the scenes - offer some incentives to (or put some pressure on) Zimbabwe's neighbours instead?

Interesting development:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7340476.stm

This suggests that the regional powers *are* becoming involved. I'm a little worried that a "summit" suggests that Mugabe might be trying to get immunity from prosecution if he steps down.