## A Conversation for What do Probabilities Mean?

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Martin Harper Posted Oct 22, 2002

A827264 - forthcoming entry on the subject.

Much forth. Little coming.

-myre

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Not him Posted May 9, 2005

so, back to the boxes...

There is a 1/3 probability that you have the right box. This means that the other box opened is meaningless. yes?

There is consequently a 2/3 chance that the box you choose is wrong. In which case the box opened by the presenter is meaningful as it reveals the right box as the unused box. yes?

so 2/3 of the time you are better choosing the third box (swopping) as it has the prize in. Sorry to rehash this but the diagrams given were unclear to me.

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