h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

As usual, there hasn't been much coverage - but that business in a cafe with a live microphone being left inside while the media filmed from outside (or something) has had a bit of a run because it's just so silly. It was even being discussed on the radio this morning when I got up - but that was just after 5am so I'm not convinced it reached a wide audience.

The only detailed, considered articles I've seen are these two bits of opinion poll analysis:

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/11/latest-nz-election-polls-show-john-key-and-national-on-track-for-majority-government-1.html

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/11/polling-on-the-new-zealand-electoral-system-referendum.html

Antony Green is my favourite geek.

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(I'm not sure why NZ opinion pollsters report polls to one decimal place when they have an error margin of 3.6%. I suppose the difficulty is trying to gauge support for the tiny parties. For instance, United Future was reported as having a support of 0.1%. In the sample of 750, that would correspond to just one respondent, so I'm not sure why such tiny numbers are worth reporting. )
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I've been wondering the same thing myself. But also how useful a sample of 750 people is for an MMP system. I'm also troubled by pre-election polls in general. If swing voters see Labour on 27% they may not want to vote for the losers. I tell myself that no-on could be that stupid, and then I correct myself

The weirdness is being on tenderhooks all week waiting to see if the media will publish the tapes, and then the police searching the media a week before the election at the behest of the PM

Also, and I love this, people are suggesting that left wing voters in Epsom, vote for National. If the National candidate wins then ACT are out of parliament, which might go some way to mitigating National forming a govt again.

My view on polls is that they're conversation starters, but they have no intrinsic meaning. People will argue about what it all means until election day, and after election day they'll argue over why the polls weren't more accurate.

Tactical voting under MMP presents all sorts of fascinating possibilities. That's something else that makes my head hurt.