h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

What are your feelings on Unite making such open moves to retake the Labour Party?

Personally, I think it's a good thing for real Labour supporters but maybe not good electorally. It'll be good to see the careerist political drones out on their arse and it'll obviously mean Labour moving back to the Left, but will this not leave the field clear for the Tories to hoover up the centrist votes?

It is the essential dilemma facing those of us in the kinda "soft left". Obviously we understand the psephology and know what kind of positions Labour has to take to win, but at the same time wanting there to be some kind of transformative agenda.

I'm not all that convinced though that Unite's policy will actually change a lot. Some of the archest Nu-Labourites have been Union supported or originated MPs (see Alan Johnson) and Unions are stacked to the gills full of careerist types.

And especially a Union such as Unite which is big on appointments and less keen on election and workplace organisation. I suspect it will predominantly just be a slightly different type of grasping careerist MPs. In fact we are already seeing in the movement that ambitious types spending time having been a TU member for just a bit before taking a job at Westminster and then keeping up their subs so they can say they are a Union candidate.

When did I become so cynical?

FB

On the centre ground though the Tories are probably rushing to the right at least as much, if not more, than Labour are moving to the left. Clearly they have taken heed of the message about how much banging on about Europe has really enhanced their electoral prospects since 92.

In fact, particularly after the Eastleigh by election I rather wonder if rather than being totally wiped out and an irrelevant force electorally the Lib Dems might end up actually laughing.

I mean their ideal situation is a hung parliament in which they could form a coalition with either Labour or the Tories. THat the maths didn't stack up that way last time reduced their negotiating position. I think Labour and Tories getting pretty similar amounts of seats is a distinct possibility, nay likelehood in 2015.

FB

On the Tories running from the middle ground too...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22585093

"David Cameron's support for same-sex marriage has made winning the general election "virtually impossible", Conservative activists have said."

If they think that coming out against Gay Marriage is a vote winner they are just as deluded as those on the Labour left who think we can win on a platform of increased benefits.

FB

btw, this is coming from Milliband stopping the selection process in a constituency near me which led me to this - http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2012/06/22/revealed-the-document-that-sets-out-how-unite-intends-to-take-over-the-labour-party/

As to the LibDems, I dunno. On the one hand they were utterly humiliated at the South Shields by election, going from 3rd with 5000 or so votes IIRC to behind the BNP with about 300 votes - that's a huge drop. But in other constituencies with sitting MPs it should be different. Maybe 40-50 MPs at the next General Election and possible Kingmakers. Could we see a minority government supported informally by the LibDems when it suits them?

The thing about the Tories moving to the right is a direct consequence of the electorate moving to the right imo. Years of foreign wars, high immigration and the spectacular failures in the Eurozone are making people a little more isolationist I think. I also think Labour's approach to immigration flummoxed those at the bottom of the wage scale who indubitably suffered - or perceived themselves as suffering and losing out to foreigners. If Labour want to really recapture that vote they have to address those concerns in the way that people like Frank Fields have to be fair.

Re the Gay Marriage thing, I really think that's the lunatic fringe talking out of their (unloved) arses

I dunno I think the population moving to the right is a little simplistic. If you say actually look at the reasons why people are supporting UKIP it is really varied.

Remember a couple of times between 05-10 the BNP were getting really high levels of support and it came to nothing when people voted in anger.

And politicos are terrible for seeing confirmation bias. For example average man on the street > Yeah I'm anti Europe they are changing the shape of our Bananas. Tory reads that is > Europe is touchstone issue for man on the street (it really isn't).

My lot do that too, people are anti benefits except where it effects them or someone they know. So we here on the doostep > My tax credits have gone down and I can't make ends meet. Labour left reads that as > I want to use Welfare to make society fairer is a touchstone issue (it really isn't)

FB

True re being simplistic.

I'm getting a distorted picture anyway because here in Scotland we have two centre-left parties and no Tories worth noticing at all. There is no right of centre option in Scotland. The Scottish footy board I hang around has quite a young demographic and they are predominantly left wing and Nationalist, virulently so. It's all rather amusing really There's a couple of Party activists on there (LibDem & SNP) and it's astonishing how they can both go out leafletting and both then go on the board saying doorstep responses totally vindicate their respective party