h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

I've heard that too, JEllen A very cynical thing to do. Having said that, I reserve my right to do just that in the Republican primaries in the future

That, vp, is the time-honored tradition of moving the goalposts. Senator Clinton said she would stay in the race if she won Texas and Ohio. She's certainly won Ohio. But then, after some discussion about the strange primary-caucus system in Texas, she said she'd count a popular vote win in Texas as a win, even if the delegates favor Senator Obama (which they probably will). Then, when it looked like she might lose Texas, she said she'd be happy if she carried Ohio. Now that Ohio and Texas have gone for her, it's some kind of rejection of Senator Obama - despite the fact that she was leading in the polls by huge margins a month ago.

Looks like the Obama win in Vermont will help offset Clinton's Rhode Island win, and the Obama Texas Caucus win (which is deceptively large in terms of delegates) will help to offset the Ohio win. Clinton will probably net a gain of 1-4 delegates on the night. That's not nearly as big a victory as she needed last night. Given that this was one of the last big contests, and Senator Obama is leading by about one hundred delegates at this point, this was a victory for Senator Clinton, but possibly a pyrrhic victory. I just don't see how she wins the nomination, from a delegate standpoint.

Why does a victory in two states (and as I understand it, two very important states as far as the nomination race goes) result in so few delegates?

Personally, I'm supporting Hillary (though I do like Obama a lot) but it worries me that she would be a slight underdog in a general election. I like McCain more than any other Republican candidate I can remember, though I don't really know much about his policies, but I'd far rather either of the Democrats win the White House than him.

When's the next contest?

The next two are Mississippi and Wyoming - both are expected to be big wins for Senator Obama. Then, nothing for about seven weeks until Pennsylvania.

Senator Clinton really won quite a few delegates, but only a small number in terms of net gain compared to Senator Obama's total. So, Senator Obama won quite a few delegates, but Hillary won a few more. It cuts into Obama's delegate lead a bit, but not so much as to be really significant. After the Wyoming and Mississippi primaries, the net gain by Senator Clinton this week will be erased. Meanwhile, Senator Clinton would need to win the remaining contests by upwards of 70% or so - which, frankly is just not going to happen. If this contest goes into the Convention, which is looking increasingly likely, this is what will happen-

1. Senator Obama will have a large delegate lead.
2. Senator Clinton will try to get the delegations from Florida and Michigan seated at the convention. Those two states were disqualified from the Convention because they held their primaries in violation of Democratic party rules. They held their primaries, and Senator Clinton won big victories in those states (though Obama had his name removed from the ballot in Michigan)
3. Senator Obama's large delegate lead will translate to a majority in the Convention Credentials Committee, which gets to decide if Florida and Michigan will be seated. They will not be.
4. Senator Clinton will attempt to win by turning Senator Obama's unpledged delegates to her side.

There's no path that Senator Clinton has to the nomination at this point which isn't ugly. Mathematically, she's not likely to overtake Senator Obama in pledged delegates. So, she either pushes to have Florida and Michigan seated in violation of DNC rules, or she attempts to have the superdelegates (unpledged delegates) subvert the results of the primaries which would, to say the least, anger some Democrats. One of former President Clinton's former aides said that if the superdelegates decide the nominee, she will leave the Democratic party. That would be the worst possible scenario, in my mind.

That's so complicated!