h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

Entry: SYNCHRONY OF AGGRESSION, POLITICO-ECONOMIC CYCLES IN THE BACK DROP GENETIC "HALF LIFE" AND THE LORENZIAN MODEL! - A1899831
Author: GORGEOUSVAMP - U242924

According to the German periodical Der Spiegel (1982; p.27) between 1945 and the summer of 1982, there were 130 wars, civil wars, uprisings and terrorist campaigns that affected nearly 100 countries and in which approximately 35 million people died. Moreover the military expenditures multiplied fourfold in the developing countries during 1960 and 1978 and during the same period the defence expenditures of the industrialised nations increased by about 44%. According to the SIPRI 1994 yearbook if 1992 witnessed a post cold war period then the year 1993 saw the nadir of aggression during which period there were 34 major armed conflicts in 28 locations around the world (as compared to 33 such conflicts in 29 countries in 1992). The yearbook reports, in addition to emergence of other more serious types of conflictual patterns and proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, mainly on account of the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, and even though military spending is declining in most of the countries, a genuine enjoyment of a peace dividend is hardly on the cards. In most countries there is a tendency to cut arms procurement more rapidly than defence spending in general. Schlesinger Jr. (1994) notes,....." that the end of cold war of ideologies does not mean the 'end of history' as optimistically predicted. According to him one set of hatred replaces another.... Lifting up of the iron curtain of the ideological repression in Eastern Europe and the former U.S.S.R has released pent up (perhaps biologically determined) national, ethnic, fundamentalist, linguistic and regional antagonisms deeply rooted in history and memory..... Lifting up of the cold war has removed the superpower restraints on national and/or tribal conflicts. looking around the globe from India to Ireland, from Sri Lanka to Sudan and from Angola to Zaire - one would find growing ethnic and/or racial tensions. The tendency of Yugoslavia apart, even in the developed world and nations as stable as Canada, Britain, France, Belgium, Spain, Germany and Italy face internal threats of secession. If 20th century has been a century of warfare of ideologies, the 21st century begins as a century of warfare of ethnicities."
In view of the persisting human aggression it thus seems worthwhile to re-examination its nature, forms of manifestations, and contents from the standpoint of not only Biological determinism and/or Darwinian naturalism, but also from the phylogenetically pre-programmed human ethological role modelling, human sociobiological factors as constrained or conditioned by ecological and/or economic oscillations known to exhibit ordered periodicities. Even under the assumption of random and hence purely ' white noise' factors (eg. Samuelson; 1982) economic activities have been shown to exhibit ordered Schumpeterian periodicities even with zero interest rates, psychological time preference notwithstanding. In respect of the observed natural periodicities in levels of aggressive behaviour, biological ecological and/or economic phenomena a somewhat naive attempt has been made to integrate different fields in an integrated explanatory one. An empirical case study in respect of India has been outlined using Fourier analysis and also with the introduction of the concept of 'half life of genetic decay’. Indian case is studied empirically using Fourier analysis assuming the existence of a mixed sine and a cosine pulses vanishing at even and odd nodes respectively. The arguments are purely heuristic and rough and the results even if termed as being artificially fitted, do indicate the overall tendencies.1

Biological Rhythms
The existence of circadian rhythms in biology some three centuries ago was attributed to mystical effects. Today this subject is an established scientific fact with roughly about 1500 papers being published all over the world, annually. Biological or Physiological rhythms are known to exist in plant, animal and human kingdoms. Additionally apart from being hereditary in nature, these fluctuations generally exhibit relaxation type of oscillations viz the ''all or the none variety''. Accompanying these diaurnal rhythms there exist lunar, half lunar and tidal rhythms in a variety of organisms especially the aquatic ones. The biological clock can be used to measure days, find directions and is essentially hereditary in nature and as a consequence of which many pathological phenomena can be forecasted well in advance. Within one organism different parts of it can exhibit oscillations with different phases such that when coming in phase with one another, synchrony or the beat phenomena is exhibited. An excellent overview of the work has been given by Bunning (1973). In addition to these daily biological oscillations, there exist also, the less studied ultradian and/or the seasonal periodicities which have been shown to exist in respect of a variety of phenomena like suicides, mortality, conception etc. (e.g. Aschroff; 1982). Moreover in respect of circadian and ultradian oscillations [(and using the concepts of the degree of relatedness, as understood sociobiologically and determining kinship levels {e.g. Markl; Dahlem Konferenzen; 1980} and as extended to include human beings as well)], it is assumed that a kinship level including a nation state is such that all individuals act as independent oscillators capable of mutually inducing and/or through such an induction achieve a synchrony at the national kinship level when individual such oscillators are ''vibrating'' with the same phase. This concept of mutual induction via the 'human field'6 is discussed later on. A nation can under such assumptions have periods of intense activity followed by periods of complete lethargy and/or ''destructive aggression''. The phases, it is assumed can get synchronised in the absence of factors producing such synchrony and furthermore it is assumed that the population is infinitely large and random mating such that the 'degree of relatedness is very high' viz. each individual is in some way related genetically to another one. In other words social cohesiveness is presumed to be very high indeed. Thus for a society of N individuals of the same ''racial factor'', a very high degree of relatedness, then, on the basis of a menu pre-programmed similarly for all individuals in respect of laws of sociobological and/or phylogenetic causation if for a given human frequency w but different phases f1 , f2, f3, ........ and amplitudes a1, a2 , a3,...........then we have in respect of an amplitude A and phase F0 :
ACos[ wt + F0] = Saj Cos[wt + fj] .............(1) where j = 1, 2, .....N
a1sin f1 + ansinfn
--------------------------------------------- = tan F0
a2cosf1 + ancosfn

...... (2)

A2 = = SSaiakcos( fi - fk ) .......
(eg. Savrensky, 1975; pp 13-14)
Frequencies w 's for organisms/animals other than human beings would be different. One would thus have certain f i's and a's for which one would expect a beat reinforcing phenomena to occur at a national level. One thus speaks of 'crime waves',' baby booms', 'national level war hysterias', 'waves of religious fervours', 'waves of communal or ethnic riots or tensions’. A nation state can thus have periods of hyperactivity or sluggishness resulting in constructive or destructive activities. Ascroff (1965) has given an illustrative example of a beat phenomena caused by disassociation under conditions of missing external synchronisers:
" An individual living in isolation without cues exhibited as to frequencies even in the same organ, the kidney. The rhythms of activity and calcium excretion regained their original functions every third to the fourth day. The times when all functions were in phase coincided with occasional diary notes in which the subject indicated especially well and fit."2,3

Aggressive Drives and their Fluctuations
Sigmund Freud postulated an aggressive drive conceiving it to be a mystical death instinct (thanatos) counteracting the live instinct (libido). Konrad Lorenz (1963) replaced this concept with a biological neurogenic drive for intraspecific aggression, the assumption being based upon an animal's behaviour in respect of aggressive tendencies, which in many species did not coincide with appropriate fluctuations of external factors. In this context he spoke of action specific excitation produced within the Central Nervous System (CNS). Lorenz's " Psychohydraulic Model" and is appropriately described by Hassenstein (1966; p.644) One can, on the basis of these have a model involving diurnal activity as signified in figure 1.
[Figure 4 about here]
Eibesfeldt (1979) in his book ' Biology of Peace and War' and based upon Lorenz's postulates, very boldly and convincingly justifies that aggressive behaviour of animals is innate and phylogenetically determined and pre-programmed. The innateness of this aggressive instinct is counterbalanced by the innateness of the Darwinian species survival instinct and which Darwinian instinct, perhaps, Eibesfeldt has supplanted with his "Learning Theory" (1989). According to Eibesfeldt, the "Learning Theory" is determined through processes such as, cultural, ecological, environmental, phylogenetical, genetic/phenetic and are thus perhaps even "informationally acquired" "habit processes"4. However as the world has not progressed enough so as to transcend, national, ecological and/or environmental barriers, the perpetual interaction of genes with environment and hence the resultant phenotypes, the survival instinct is constrained at the kinship level (village and/or national levels) and hence also fine-tuned according to the degree of relatedness. Thus different "kinship levels" determined phylogenetically and/or phenetically get involved with one another in intra or inter group "conflicts" by the sociobiological determined ''degree of relatedness''. In Samuelson's (1984b) language- ''Pareto inefficiency'' being the all too like an outcome of game theoretic struggles between different groups and classes especially in respect of democracies wherein the struggle between different interest groups is likely to end up in dead weight loss for the whole society. This excellent article by the author while stating that ''race being a forbidden category in modern explanations'' actually takes up several convincing case studies regarding the position of effects of racial factors upon economic progress in respect of different countries. Approximately, indirect, though similar arguments have been provided by Joan Robinson (1976) especially as regards the case of the ''greatest economic miracle'' of the Korean case and she quite rejects the ideological or other explanations and states " when orthodox theory cannot support itself by logic, it fall back on ideology". The ideological explanations themselves being questionable according to the author. The political economy can thus be approached at through the use of the tools of sociobiological explanations determined through the concepts of the degree of social cohesiveness and/or the degree of relatedness. One cannot only hypothesise the innate aggressiveness of human beings but also their innate Darwinian species survival instinct constrained by " human sociobiological factors" arising out of phylogenetic and/or phenetic necessities coupled with the ecological threshold factors arising out of ethnic factors in addition to a host of others.
There is growing trend in the resurgence of Darwian naturalism in political theory (eg Arnhart; 1995). The article provides an excellent overview of the currently prevailing opinion on Darwinian naturalism. In the field of economics, Samuelson (1984a), while making international real income comparisons suggests the hypothesis that (1) productivity improvement correlates with the intensity of competition from whatever source and (2) that countries that are rich are rich because they have, somehow, been endowed with greater ability to respond to competitive challenges. In making assumptions such as these Samuelson has assumed the existence of the Darwinian-Toynbee Challenge processes. In case (2) above the greater responsiveness to competitive challenges emanates from the fact that tradable goods involve a country in more challenges, in challenges from all countries such that one can deduce that tradable generally should display greater productivity improvements in any fixed time of epoch that non tradable do. Also that the countries that have become rich should display their greatest productivity differentials in their tradable sector. According to the author: " Commonly we travellers from a rich country are struck by how we could live on if only we could go native in our tastes and scale of expenditures. This has a bearing on the Kravis-Heston-Summers finding and it is not inconsistent with the experience of travellers from outposts to the metropolitan centre, that insisting upon living in Rome as one had in Gaul would be very expensive indeed!" In many recent empirical economic studies the performance of today's workers is considered from the point of view of the parental skills as envisaged in the link between ethnic neighbourhoods in terms of ''ethnic capital'' and persistent ''racial inequalities" (e.g. Borjas; 1995). There thus seems to be an all round interest in racial and/or ethnic explanations (being both implicitly and explicitly) being given for more and more of phenomena concerning political, economic and/or social sciences.
In consideration of phylogenetic adaptations, one is led to consider in consonance, interplay of ecological factors while determining purely non-economic consequences of intra and/or interstate aggression or conflictual patterns. Already scholars have started applying ecological models to domestic conflict situations (e.g. Francisco, 1995), while studying the patterns of coercion and protest. The author has used the Lotka-Volterra model for predator prey relationships. It would suffice to mention that the mathematical structure of equations, if found to be the same in different disciplines, is symptomatic of a general polymorphism. In other words similarity of solutions will give similarities of different characteristics- the meaning being functional upon the discipline under consideration. Thus at a perhaps subconscious level researchers though not directly stating in as much that the ''human predator-prey'' systems are similar and perhaps also similar and/or similarly phylogenetic in content from the ''non human'' ones. Actual phylogenetic similarity seems to result from such mathematical applications. In respect of ecological systems in stable equilibrium and population genetics (including genome mapping studies) Russian researchers have made far reaching advances, for which, respectively for which excellent reviews can be found in (Svirezhev and Logopet, 1980; Yablakov, 1986).
Coming back to the question of human aggression fluctuations, it might be stressed that the ethological theory of aggression sets a wider framework, allowing, thus the integration of the ''Learning Theory'' [(e.g. Eibesfeldt, 1989) a possible by-product of the Darwinian species survival instinct process] with the frustration-aggression concept and the incorporation of the innate biological (e.g. sexual determinism) mechanisms via the Lorenzian ''psychohydraulic model’’, and the latter's modifications and/or extensions as suggested by other scholars. All the fluctuating influences viz endogenous, diurnal biological rhythms acting in synchrony (vide equations 1 to 3) in a nation state acting in corresponding synchrony (with lags being possible). This synchrony results in a beats reinforcing phenomena corresponding to periodic aggressive drives and which aggressive drives are counteracted by simultaneous, lagged Darwinian drives corresponding to instinctual level species survival natural biological thrusts. This Darwinian level instinct process may perhaps explain the concept of 'Democratic Peace' as a resultant action of the ''Learning Theory'' and/or process. The notion of "Democratic Peace’’ or the innate biological (or as understood in common sense parlance) process to survive and avoid conflict, is well explained in Russett [(1995) though from a different point altogether] and with the corresponding statistics proving the futility of the concepts evolved by the 'determinists'.
Additionally, digressing a bit, it may be mentioned that population increases, tend to increase the number of conflictual situations. This could be because of various factors like the bid of the kinship level Darwinian species survival instinct mechanisms leading to the Darwin-Toynbee type of challenge and competition processes in a bid to acquire more and more of natural resources. In this context it would be sufficient to mention that if the population growth rate increases unabated then by 2000 A.D there would be 6000 million people on earth and by 2600 A.D there would be standing space of 1 square yard per person as compared to the present population density of 76.4 per square mile (U.N. demographers report (Brelvi 1995). Rapaport (1968) has shown that in respect of the comparatively peaceful, New Guinea people, the chances of conflicts arising out (of individual quarrels problems like stealing of pigs) increase roughly in a geometric proportion as compared to population of these people increasing in arithmetic progression. Moreover the New Guinea people enter into ritualised warfare postures (and which retaliation is perhaps biologically determined in accordance with circadian and/or ultradian rhythms).
The above are some of the temporal and territorial forms of warfare. some times height in architecture is a forms of dominance (Rapaport, 1982). Without going into the ethological aspects of aggression some main points may be recapitulated. Lorenzian concept of intraspecific (e.g. sexual) neurobiological aggressive drive is oscillatory with regular or irregular periodicity and such an aggressive drive is not dependent upon external conditions though these latter ''external'' factors may direct the drives in synchrony with ecological or phylogenetically determined environment and/or culture based behavioural patterns.
Current research has not been able to determine the extent to which the innate adaptations environmentally and/or phenetically or phylogenetically determine the agonal behaviour. A six month old infant reacts negatively with fear towards strangers. Some of the releasing stimuli activate the agonal system only amongst individuals of the same sex. Thus the male pheromone androstenol has a repelling effect on males and an attracting one on females. Deaf, dumb or blind show agonal tendencies. Individuals show distinct differences in their disposition to behave aggressively and such differences cannot always be explained by parallel changes in the environment, though the agonal differences remaining the same, may undergo a directional change depending upon ecological constraints [(which ecological factors are most of the time oscillatory in nature with such oscillations being the ''all or none'' or the relaxation period type)] and/or environmental mechanisms (Eibesfeldt; 1989; pp367-368). Hormonal processes such as androgen release and changes in serotonin metabolism within the brain are positively correlated with aggressive acts [(e.g. Brown et al; 1982; Brain and Benton; 1981; Svaare; 1983)]. The sexual arousal act is a primate predetermined and pre-programmed instinct. There are many studies which have identified a positive correlation between aggression and sexual arousal (initially inhibitory) first discovered as "the agonal sexual arousal link" (e.g. Kortmulder-1968; Parker-1976) This ''agonal sexual arousal link'' as some studies have found out is of negative influence on human beings in the long run [eg Berkowitz 1970; Feshbach and Singer; 1971]. Moreover before sexual intercourse male pheromone andrestenol levels attract females and after intercourse blood testosterone levels of males increase (Fox et al-1972). The catecholamines, dopamines, norepinephrines (noradenaline and epinephrines (adrenaline) induces changes in aggressive readiness and other physiological responses especially in culturally aggressive societies and/or races - phenomena pre-programmed phylogenetically and/or genetic, phenetic interaction with environment. The idea is not to propound a racial /ethnic theory of human aggression. According to Samuelson (1984b) while stating ‘‘that race is forbidden category in eschewing fanciful genetic explanations’’, suggests that the yellow races especially Japan forsaking her military might in 1945 replaced it with economic output so much so that by the turn of this century Japan well may occupy the number one position insofar as economic activity is concerned. Joan Robinson has said something on these lines in respect of ''case of the greatest economic miracle'' viz. Korea (including North Korea), which according to her cannot be explained in terms either the neoclassical theory or even ideological issues (1976) as mentioned earlier.
According to Eibesfeldt (1989), bellicosity according to the Lorenzian framework, is an innate biological drive which changes in according to the ''Learning Theory''. One can assume that even if human aggression were determined biologically then such innateness can also be counteracted in accordance with the Darwinian species survival instinct or in other words an innately determined human instinct to avoid conflict and to survive. Thus one can postulate that the biological determinism can be rechannelised into other forms of biological drives which are not destructive but are actually constructive. It is thus possible to envisage a Lorenzian Psychohydraulic Model which bifurcates into two types of drives viz. (1) Destructive Aggressive Drive (2) Constructive Aggressive Drive5.
It may be mentioned however that the ''Learning Process'', if it contributes to constraining the levels of bellicosity, then the same 'Learning Process’ through socio-cultural and political processes in addition to other such or such-like processes; contains an aggressive component which contributes to the overall innate disposition towards aggressiveness biologically determined. Through the ''Learning Theory’’, therefore, the conditions of Darwinian species survival instinct therefore, do not, perhaps find themselves satisfied completely with Darwinian naturalism being also innately determined according to '' biological determinism’’. Oren (1995a) has discussed the Richardsonian hostility term which he rightly points out has an innate psychological content and which he explains as being a result of the attribution theory. Any theory considering human aggression must necessarily take into account armament build ups or arms races- with or without the Cold War Component (as with the end of cold war aggression levels in the developing countries have stepped up and with corresponding arms races). Oren (1995b) gives examples of countries appearing to be peaceful but actually bellicose (perhaps on account of phylogenetic pre-programming) in characteristics.
The extent to which phylogenetic adaptations determine aggressiveness and the extent to which the ''Learning Theory’’ ameliorates that bellicosity remains unknown. Also remains unknown the female menstrual cycles getting mysteriously synchronised when a group of such females tends to remain together for some months [( McClincock,1971; Graham & Crew, 1980; Russell et al, 1980; Turke, 1984; Cutler et al, 1986)]. None of the theories as that of "the hidden ovulation" etc. has so far been successful in explaining this phenomenon.6 Turke assumes that this invisible estrus compelled man to remain faithful to his partner so that he were not to seek other partners when missing the fertile period of partner. However results and concepts of other scholars discount Turke’s theory while mutually discounting each other's works and/or concepts as well.
As explained in footnote (6) the phenomena the analogue of mutual inductance, well grounded in the electromagnetism can be used to at least explanation of synchrony between individual oscillators (for e.g. some sort of a ''human field''), with the coupling constant of mutual inductance being dependent upon the sociobiological concepts of degree of relatedness, kinship level cohesiveness etc. It is further assumed that a particular nation state has individuals 'genetically related' to each other such that the ''oscillator frequency'' is more or less the same for all individuals and only phase lags can be different. The utility of first few harmonics of Fourier Series is well explained by Schumpeter (pp 198-199, Vol I; p.1051, Vol.II - 1939) in his cyclical evolutionary theory. In the empirical analysis the first few harmonics do not actually explain the sociobiological/economic evolutionary processes. Fourier analysis is only used as a convenient tool for explaining periodic behaviour in sociobiological/economic evolutionary mechanisms. This would be done in the empirical part of this paper, but not as a mere tool but also as a result of genetic-sociobiological role modelling with a fixed period, termed as the 'half life of genetic decay'. Mutually induced circadian/ultradian oscillations are thus supposed to exist in respect of other human factors determined according to the sociobiological concepts of the degree of relatedness, kinship levels assumed in our case to be ''genetically related''.
Coming back to the question of the Lorenzian Pyschohydraulic Model and his concept of an innate aggressive, biologically determined, drive, it is assumed that Darwinian species survival instinct as determined according to Darwinian naturalism is equally true even if superimposed by the Lorenz-Eibesfeldt ''Learning Theory''.
This model can be visualised because since the dawn of civilization, human beings have been actively engaged in active constructive work for making their survival factor easier and more responsive. The modern age if it has witnessed bloodshed on one hand, then on the other it has witnessed also in an awesome and a phenomenal progress in all sciences and humanities. Families construct better and better homes ,not only to protect themselves from the vagaries of environmental/ecological factors, but also to make their survival fitness factors conveniently and firmly embedded in the precincts of their dwellings. Small houses have grown to the high rise buildings and small peace making pressure groups have been replaced by large international fraternal organizations (like the UN etc.) transcending all national, ethnic boundaries. The bullock cart age after breaking the barriers of civil aviation is now on the threshold of space travel. Religious societies and forms of governance (save a few of the developing countries) have transformed drastically, for effectually controlling crime, abuse of human rights by developing nations and evening maintaining health and social securities - changing in the positive sense the overall increased life expectancies. Ethologists however dismiss all peace making efforts by international pressure groups (like the UN etc.) as different forms of manifestations of aggressive behaviour like "submission" or "flight" by one of the nations agreeing to peace making efforts. In view of the innateness of the biologically determined species survival instinct, this position of the "Lorenz-Eibesfeldt Theory" does not sound altogether too convincing, though biologically determined aggression is in parts very convincing. However all this perhaps a matter of opinion or largely a reference frame of forming any opinion in the absence of experimentally provable Darwinian Species Survival Instinct as being biologically determined.
To the extent of the existence of this counterbalancing factor of the Lorenzian drives may require a modification through the two components viz. the peaceful constructive aggression and the violent destructive aggression components, respectively, both these being conditioned phylogenetically/phenetically and/or ecologically or environmentally. As mentioned forms of ''submission '' and ''flight'' according to Lorenz-Eibesfeldt framework are types of ''aggressive behaviour''. For example ''submission'' through a third party mediation (like the UN for instance) according to ethologists may simply be a retreat, and which retreat may be existent on account of circadian/ultradian rhythms manifesting themselves as a ritualization process. However contrary to this claim Darwinian species survival instinct and/or is supposed to prevail as elaborated .6a
The extent of this counterbalancing Lorenzian hypothesis may be expressed as modification of this hypothesis in the form of two relationships (i) Constructive Aggression and (ii) Destructive, Violent Bellicosity. If some function A represents Total Bellicosity, D, the destructive Lorenzian funtion, and C the Constructive bellicosity then:
A = C + D + K .........(3)

where K is some complicated function termed as the Kernal K.
If agonal acts are presumed to be "incompressible fluids" with ''viscosity r'', then equations of fluid dynamics can be used. Such "agonal fluid dynamical equations'', would then have "sources" or "Sinks". ''Sources'' are places in space-time which are comparatively more aggressive, like Nazis and some present day developing countries. ''Sinks'' are places comparatively greater peace like for say Switzerland and some highly developed countries. Introductory equations of fluid dynamics are given in Chorlton(1967). In the case of India with over twenty states the ''viscosity'' varies from one state to another. Haryana's cohesion and ''viscosity'' are much better than bordering states like Kashmir, North-eastern States amongst other. Bihar is perennially casteist,ethnic and permanently troubled or the cause of troubles (Casteist-like the Mandal Commission). If Bihar has to be classified in terms of social sickness, then Samuelson's definition of Argentina may be followed in terms of social sickness (1984b). Bihar has brought about potentially conflictual situations (like introducing caste/religion based reservations in respect of even education) bringing the whole of India on the threshold of societal or governmental disintegration and which Bihar finds an excellent definition, through the rather caustic work of Das (1992).
Coming back to the psychohydraulic model with relaxation/oscillation type, Lorenz's model can be visualised as also being correlated economic cycles. Thus in the present scheme both constructive and destructive oscillations find synchrony in the economic cycles- destructive cycles using defence expenditures as proxy. Moreover some empirical evidence suggesting such cyclical correlation has been provided in this article. As mentioned earlier demographic studies have an important bearing [(population even if not being endogenous economic variable) as mentioned earlier and as also in (Mintz and Stevenson; 1995)]. In this context some results require to be reported.
In respect of population economics the work of Simon (1977) is apart from being path breaking also quite controversial. The author has close found synchrony between marriage cycles, business cycles and unemployment/employment cycles. In respect of unemployment cycles income has been taken as a proxy and moreover such synchrony has been studied for Sweden and the U.S. Simon has also researched remarkable synchrony between business cycles, cycles of fertility and cycles of births and the high R2 incidences between Sweden and Switzerland. This high synchrony between Sweden and Switzerland has also been discussed by Samuelson (1984b). Most of the economic phenomena are known to be oscillatory in nature. Schumpetrian zero rate interest with the psychological or biological time preference equal to 0.04 is assumed Samuelson (1982). Schumpeter's two volume books describe (1939) various types of cycles viz. animal, four phase harvest, Juglur, Kitchin, industrial, Kondratief, shipbuilding cycles etc. The existence of defence expenditure cycles of the relaxation oscillation (''all or the none type'') has been shown to exist (Ward & Mahajan; 1984).
Whether there is any correlation with aggression fluctuations (defence expenditures being used as a suitable proxy for such aggression fluctuations) and the economic cycles is a question that requires some examination. Before attempting at explaining this question, of equal relevance is the question that economic or business cycles are symptomatic of purely capitalist economies and that whether pure capitalism has been replaced by sort of a mixed economic system, or not? The answer is yes. First and foremost in the U.S. pure capitalism has been replaced by a mixed economy (e.g., Samuelson; 1980). However even if this were to be temporary phase then even if for a poorly developed or developing country Kravis-Heston- Summers (e.g. Samuelson; 1984a) type of tranformations of real income comparisons would yield values of say the GNP (of example the Indian Rupees) in terms of the US$ values of GNP for the exchange rate prevalent (example exchange rate of the Indian Rupee to the US$ for that year). By choosing one base period and the corresponding exchange rates (year wise) systematically eliminates the possibility of any poorly developed country from presenting its sliced data to its people thus misrepresenting actual facts through manoeuvring visuals graphic representations. Moreover the 'degree of poverty' of a poor nation cannot be concealed when such a nation state's ''economic health'', is viewed in comparison with ''the degree of richness'' of the rich. This fact already finds mention of Samuelson's work referred to above. Another aspect responsible for inducing free market type economic cycles is the savings of developed countries which are used to finance poor or developing countries. In this respect a report of IMF (World Economic Outlook, October, 1991) notes that in the U.S. especially, there exists an acute savings problems accruing mainly on account of grave disincentives to entrepreneurs and others into investing in business on account of higher taxation rates meant solely for economically aiding poor or developing countries. The IMF reports further although a higher savings rates (to about 1.75) are projected for 1991-1996, disincentives to the people of the developed world on account of heavy taxation continues to loom large. As in late 1980's private savings tend to be spent on affluence by the hardworking rich of the developed world. Additionally domestic savings tend to be at least six times the external savings and the financial aid to underdeveloped countries mainly coming from the domestic savings. Thus the Modigliani type life cycles tend to be induced into the underdeveloped or the developing countries which in turn have a retrogressive effect on the development processes of the rich industrialised countries. According to Samuelson (1980) despite U.S. economy tending to become a mixed one, a final word on the existence of economic and/or business cycles has not yet been said and further that the U.S. economy acquiring a mixed character does not mean that the period of business cycles has ended. It is mainly on the real income international comparisons of the Kravis et al type (Samuelson;1984a), that Indian Economic Cycles will be synchronised with aggression (Defence being assumed to be a suitable proxy for bellicosity). In view of the savings issue and financing developing countries, the Russet and Slemrod (1992) results acquire great importance for individual savings accruing on account of diminished risk of nuclear war would ultimately be used to provide financial aid to the conflictual poor or developing countries. It would behove well in the interest of ''democratic peace'' not to finance developing countries for such nations may well nigh misuse the developmental efforts of the west for diverting hard earned savings of the Industrialised countries into augmenting the conflictual situations already well grounded into such developing countries. Such has been the experience in the past of diversions of liberal foreign aid by the recipient nation states for seeking armaments’ procurement.
The Indian Case
After Brazil, a country thrice the size of India makes do with a defence budget of one third the Indian budget and which India also has the dubious distinction of being the largest importer of arms and that this sort of a spending spree has done little to contribute to the economic development. Moreover Indian army's maintenance budget has gone steadily up and now eats up about 80% of the appropriation with a full 55% of it being spent on manpower costs alone [(e.g. Nandkarni(Admiral-retd); 1993]. According to Air Commodore Singh (1995) in terms of constant 1980-81 constant rupees and 1980-81 constant US$, Indian defence expenditures hit the rock bottom. The author while making these calculations actually made his calculations without using any Craves et al type of economic observation (eg. Samuelson;1984a).
The Model
The model is actually spelled out in the very beginning of this article. In this article neither any Cobb-Douglas type of production function or any neoclassical growth model involving any cross-sectional study is made. The actual production function involving Solow ''residual production functions'', along with a critique of aggregation analysis involving cross-sectional studies has been well discussed in (Samuelson; 1979 especially the footnotes). Moreover many of the neoclassical growth models specify several time dependent variables and not as many other simultaneous (time dependent) equations that could justify any unique solution factor. In this paper Fourier Series with vanishing odd values of sine terms and vanishing even values of cosine terms are simulated with actual data and which data is assumed to cause about the disappearance either of sine and cosine terms for some t= t and for some odd integers for which cosine terms vanish and likewise for the sine terms which vanish at t =t for even integers. t the 'half life genetic decay' is a time constant which is assumed to exist independently of India's economic or political situation. This time t is supposed to be the genetic half length time of India. This 'genetic decay’ signifies the racial character of the Indian people and/or society. For different nations t would be different and in addition to genetic fine tuning of a race this'genetic decay' this 'half life period' would also be consistent would also be consistent with 'historical memory'. t is a constant existing exogenously and dependent upon the same principles in respect of radio decay of unstable elements or radio isotopes (instability arising on account of very high plurality of India's society - e.g. Rabushka, A and K.A.Shepsle; 1972).
Genetic Half Life

Consistent with the concept of 'ethnic capital' and not inconsistent with Hamilton's sociobiological7 concepts then assuming that India is infinitely large [with a high degree of relatedness and very high level of kinship [(this does not seem to be very presumptive as the hatred levels of ‘foreigners’ {which has to be understood in the context of 'plurality ' as understood by Indians in India} in India has reached an all time high)], then for a randomly mating population, then ''genetic capital '' G is such that Indians derive ''maximum genetic profit'' from people of their own kind. Where ''investment'' and ''profit maximizations '' refer to sociobiological concepts and not the economic laws. Following Charlesworth (1980) for infinitely large, random mating populations and for haplodiploidy the probability [for a given locus and for aggression levels (both constructive and destructive)] of having full sibs is rxy and it is not necessarily that rxy = ryx and for diploid autosomal inheritance rxy = ryx and for half sibs the probability is 1/4. One takes the minimal probability values viz. the value 1/4 in either of the cases. The time rate of change of bellicosity we assume, in the Indian case to be:
(dA/dt) = -KA..............(4)
or At = A0 e-k(t-t0) ...........(5)
In the Indian case it is assumed that bellicosity levels decay as the half life radioactive decay of unstable elements. This should be expected also to be the actual picture of the average rural Indian wherein people marry much before their marriageable ages and as a consequence, on account of family raising problems tend to mature faster and hence reduce their aggression levels. However it should in no way be meant to be construed that the average Indian is a peaceful animal. In India aggression levels are far greater than before and are primarily structured on the basis of, castes, classes, ethnicities, regions and/or fundamentalist forces. The half lifewould be At = (1/2)(1/4) = 1/8 the'time decay parameter' 1/k from this 'radioactive decay' of 'unstable elements' ,is t =(1/k) = 15.38 years. In the context of identification of 'foreign nationals' it may be of some relevance to state here that a recent Supreme Court's recent decision has temporararily stayed the identification of such 'foreign nationals' for voting purposes. Moreover there are many places in India having a permanent multi-national unidentified alien population which exists without any governmental interference and which alien population is never interested in exercising its franchise in the relevant election years.

Empirical Results

In respect of data current unsliced time series starting from 1961 onwards have been taken from Agrawal et al (1995), Statistical Abstracts of India for various years as the Economic Surveys for various years as well as various SIPRI yearbooks. For defence expenditure results have been cross-compared with respect to reporting from different sources so as to delete the redundant reporting and add relevant reporting. Using the National deflator, constant prices at 1961 base year are obtained in respect of GNP, National Income Levels in terms of the NNP (Net National Product), GNP, Defence Expenditures and figures relating to the Gross Capital Formation (by types of assets). Figures regarding Net Capital Formation are also obtained likewise. These data are then, for making real income comparisons, converted to the yearly averages of the $ Indian Rupees exchange rates. These figures would be compatible with the Kravis et al model type. It would be found that after the disintegration of the former U.S.S.R all Indian income comparisons including the defence expenditure levels were at their lowest ebb in 1993 [( t-t0 in equation (6) is thus taken to be = 32)] the 1993-97 indicates a further depression effect. Using the software Mathemetica simulating these actual figures with the Fourier Series yields the graphs as shown from figures (1) to (3). The striking feature is that there is
[ FIGURES FROM (1) to (3) ABOUT HERE]
remarkable synchrony(despite the existence of either of the two sine and the two cosine terms that have been taken into account at t = t and where only two cannot vanish) between actual and real figures in respect of National Income effects (NNP, GCF- Gross Capital Formation). By using ordinary linear regression analysis one finds high values of adjusted R2 and multiple R values. This is shown in TABLE 1 [for the sake of brevity the figures regarding the GNP and NCF or the Net Capital Formation have not been taken into account.

[TABLE 1 ABOUT HERE]
However in respect of defence expenditures no such synchrony shows up for any t value the optimal lying between 15 and 16. On the other hand for no value of t not lying between 15 and 16 (the optimal being 15.38) no excellent synchrony is obtained in respect of actual and simulated values of GNP, GCF. Results as regards the GNP and the NCF (Net Capital Formation). At any rate a linear regression between actual and simulated values as regards defence expenditures is indicated in Table 2.

[TABLE 2 ABOUT HERE]
As statistics has become more of a jargon no more refined tests have been carried out. The two stage ordinary least squares test being slightly suspect as to the choice of instrumental and explanatory variables for determining economic consequences of defence spending. That as the 'Indian politico-economic ship is sinking’, one does not really require any novel statistical finding. Though a host of tests can though be designed using SPSS 6.0 (weight estimation, non linear regression etc. etc.). Coming back to the Indian case of bellicosity, the defence spending reached an all time high during the pre china war which according to retired major general Palit(1993) was mainly a systems failure and a complete failure of joint politico-military coordination. Thus any claim regarding the defence preparedness is pure heresy as India's defence spending at 1961 level was it’s highest ever during the entire course of independent India's history till date.
Samuelson's linear and non linear haploid-diploid models bear testimony to the professor's versatility ( Dec.1978, Aug.1978, Dec.1977). According to Samuelson (1984b), after the termination of colonies of Europe in Africa - the perpetual biological tyrannies were given their full sway. In indirect reference to biological tyrannies the same essay mentions the Indian case on a pathetic note. It seems necessary to put a hand in Indian "beehive" to realise that at the present state of affairs there are all forms of biological tyrannies being unleashed against the peace loving citizens by denizens of power whether, parliamentarians, judicial or the executive. In this paper the age old Schumpeterian Fourier analysis has been reused with a difference that the time period of decay T has been more or less identified in the Indian case at least. The adjusted R2 is quite high in respect of economic cyclicity and in the case of defence expenditures not so low as to warrant a complete dismissal of the concept of aggression as understood in terms of constructive and destructive activities, though biological aggression in the Indian case seems to be on its ascendancy.

Conclusion

Indian case has been ethologically discussed and the half life of genetic decay has been determined. The half-life genetic decay, through the simulations of Fourier series, has been found to be the main synchronising factor in respect of the NNP, GCF and defence expenditures. Synchrony of defence expenditures is not sufficient so as to warrant a more peaceful India till 2004 at least. This somewhat lack of synchrony of defence levels is indicative of the typically Lorenzian biological forces at play. Internal aggressions (with the synchrony being maintained even in the marked falling of the Indian economic standards like the NNP, GCF etc.) with possible conflictual situations developing in the neighbouring countries, will be the hallmark of the Indian body-politic in the coming five years. A calendar of events is indicated which gives some interesting events happening during the course of independent India. Data in the calendar gives an interesting link between the T= 15.38 = approx. 15.4 and the occurrence of major events.
[CALENDER OF EVENTS 1. ABOUT HERE]


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Hullo, Georgousvamp!

I see you're new to h2g2 and this is your first entry.

Your entry looks as though the subject matter may be quite interesting, however the manner of presentation makes it very difficult to approach. I confess that I was not willing to plough through it to find out.

It may be helpful to look at the Writing-Guidelines to get an idea of what the Editors are looking for and the general approach to writing for the guide,

You can then compare this against this entry to see what you would need to do to meet these guidelines. In general, large chunks of text are to be avoided as readers simply switch off.

As far as the bits that I did read, the entry seems to start without a proper introduction to the subject matter and assumes prior knowledge on the part of the reader. Also, the conclusion does not appear to actually be a conclusion.