h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

So Fidel Castro is resigning - what now for Cuba?

Hopefully detente with the USA.

Amusingly, in French, 'detente' also means 'trigger'.

Now I never knew that!

He'll still be in charge of counter-revolutions:

http://www.adultswim.com/video/?episodeID=9007001b10560a10f4a2dd3108065d0a

I don't see the regime lasting much longer. With Castro gone the sense of "he'll be there for the foreseeable future" that I think has held the country in some sort of political timewarp is likely to dissipate.

I suspect that within the next decade, possibly the next five years, the new regime will liberalise political debate followed by the legalisation of opposition partys and the opening of Cuba's borders allowing people to leave. The communist party will abandon Marxist-Leninism rebuild itself under a more general title as happened in Eastern Europe. The USA will use this as a pretext to drop the trade embargo (something, incidentally, I think the USA has known was pointless for over a decade: no government was willing to remove it because they would be accused of "giving in" to Castro and Castro would certainly claim victory) which will boost the Cuban economy.

I think the only problem will be the return of some of the exiled Cuban population in Miami who are heavily politicised and largely Americanised and may cause friction with the native Cubans.

I wonder though if maybe Cuba has the opportunity to become something different from what we've seen before. They've already got a base of a stable and relatively unoppressive socialist/communist society (not entirely unoppressive I know, but compared to any other communist state). Nobody's ever tried to make such a state democratic and open before, perhaps it can work?

"I wonder though if maybe Cuba has the opportunity to become something different from what we've seen before. They've already got a base of a stable and relatively unoppressive socialist/communist society (not entirely unoppressive I know, but compared to any other communist state)."

It's not "stable" or "unoppressive". If it was then the Castro regime wouldn't have needed secret police, wouldn't have needed to ban opposition parties, wouldn't have needed to use the death penalty on people trying to leave the island. Any regime that has to use these sort of things is unstable (or at least insecure) and oppressive by default. There's no such thing as a popular dictatorship; any sort of ideology with popular support can comfortably contest free elections and keep winning. There are democratic countries where this happens (Japan is one, Mexico - for a long time - was the same).

"Nobody's ever tried to make such a state democratic and open before, perhaps it can work?"

When former-communist states ditch communism and go democratic they usually opt for a market-based economy. I think Cuba will go the same way, to be honest. What I also suspect is that Cuba might want to keep it's state-owned health service, education sector etc etc and that returning "cuban exiles" who are heavily Americanised will start trying to dismantle these leading to tension between returned exiles (many of whom haven't set foot in Cuba for fifty years if at all) and native Cubans.

"If it was then the Castro regime wouldn't have needed secret police, wouldn't have needed to ban opposition parties, wouldn't have needed to use the death penalty on people trying to leave the island."

It's a fair point, but it does seem - at least to me, I'm not an expert on the country - that the Cuban government is less abusive in this respect than most other communist states, by quite a long way. Maybe that's just romantic lefty idealism.

"When former-communist states ditch communism and go democratic they usually opt for a market-based economy."

That's true, but perhaps the political situation has changed sufficiently that this might no longer seem the best option.

"What I also suspect is that Cuba might want to keep it's state-owned health service, education sector etc etc and that returning "cuban exiles" who are heavily Americanised will start trying to dismantle these leading to tension between returned exiles (many of whom haven't set foot in Cuba for fifty years if at all) and native Cubans."

Well it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Personally, I hope that if they decide to go for a market based economy, they won't take the neoliberal, privatise-everything route.

<>

Seconded!

Vicky

Is there any chance that someone will mke a power grab? Fidel Mk II?

"Is there any chance that someone will mke a power grab? Fidel Mk II?"

They already have that: Fidel's brother has essentially had the baton passed to him. As I said, though, I think the regime has had its day. I predict it'll be like Indonesia after Suharto or South Africa under de Clerk: supposed continuity will actually lead to liberalisation.

"Well it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Personally, I hope that if they decide to go for a market based economy, they won't take the neoliberal, privatise-everything route."

I think they will go for a market-based economy but neoliberal economics is dead in South America; the only times it's really been tried was under dictatorships which, as I said above, is a good indication of how popular it was. I don't go with the theory that the rise of Chavez, Morales et al is some sort of rebirth of socialism; I personally think that it's a reaction to the fading of US power and the governments it helped prop up and will act more as a balancing of rich and poor in South America than some sort of revolution and will ultimately end in systems more akin to postwar Europe than Castro's Cuba.

I think a lot depends on how strong the party leadership is (and I've no idea). If there are a dozen or so capable ministers who're not going to try to be the leader, then the current system could go on for some time. If I had to bet, then I wouldn't bet on this scenario though.

And talking of communist countries starting with C, there's no particular reason why they can't embrace some kind of market economics without giving up dictatorship. It's not an either/or thing with communism and markets these days.

"I think a lot depends on how strong the party leadership is (and I've no idea). If there are a dozen or so capable ministers who're not going to try to be the leader, then the current system could go on for some time. If I had to bet, then I wouldn't bet on this scenario though."

I wouldn't bet on it either. I don't think Cuban communism is vibrant or successful despite the claims of its supporters. The country's economy was largely propped-up with Russian money during the cold war and when that was taken away it collapsed with Castro even lifting the ban on using the US dollar in order to stimulate growth. With Castro gone and, with him, his bitter feud with the USA it's possible that a new Cuban leadership will aim to end the embargo and disestablish communism to the grief of nobody except George Galloway and Mark Steel.

"And talking of communist countries starting with C, there's no particular reason why they can't embrace some kind of market economics without giving up dictatorship. It's not an either/or thing with communism and markets these days."

China is communist in name only. It retains a few socialist policies but I don't think anyone can seriously claim that the Chinese government is attempting to create a classless worker's paradise as laid-out by Marx. The reality is that they abandoned communism for a single-party form of market-socialism a long long time ago.

I think if a society, any actually, has been run and defined essentially by the 'cult' of a particular leader for just under 50 years, things will change drastically when that leader steps down or dies. That's my bet.

I think the biggest worry, from the point of view of the Cuban people, is that if no charismatic leader or movement steps up soon, there'll be a power vacuum that will be all too tempting for conservatives - and mafiosi - in the US.

I can't claim any expertise, but my understanding is that the Batista regime which immediately preceded Castro's was rather more popular with the US mobsters and oligarchs than useful to the locals. And before that, the country was passed around somewhat casually between colonial powers not known for their enlightened government.

With Fidel retired, set to be replaced by his sprightly 75-year-old younger brother, it's one of those turning points where they could finally end up putting in place something fairer, or they could just fall into the hands of another despot. Unfortunately, the history of other such places doesn't fill me with optimism...

Rather depressingly, Castro II has apparently nominated a elderly politbureau hardliner as his prime minister.