h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

OK. So Man flu, sorry, Bird Flu has entered the country. One poor swan has succumbed to a strain of H5 bird flu. Obviously the scientists have no idea as yet whether it carried the deadly H5N1 strain, but I suppose it's only a matter of time before it hits the UK anyway.

So this brings us to the debate of whether a human strain of H5N1 will actually appear, and if so, how virulent will it actually be.

What are your thoughts and comments about the possibility of Bird Flu infecting the human population? Do you think the government are doing enough to vaccinate the population? Or do you think the risk is minimal and a big fuss about nothing?

I regret the passing of the swan in this case, and I would make two comments

1 I reckon that most of what we see ,read and hear, is media driven.
and am not at all sure how dangerous the strain might prove, unless
you go round hugging chickens!

2 If the government's past record in dealing with BSE is anything to
go by I would expect an "overkill" reaction. ( No pun intended)


Novo

(not having a go at you VV)
Why is it that the H5N1 strains is known universally (or so it seems) as
"the deadly H5N1 strain"?
I mean, I know it has killed so strictly speaking it's a valid phrase. But so have other strains. And many other things.
I'm probably just getting stressed over nothing, but it does seem to me to be a bit alarmists and unnecessary.

oh, and H5N1 has split into 2 now, apparently.

Only because of media hype. I don't know of any other strain of bird flu.

And yes...it has mutated into 2 forms.

"Do you think the government are doing enough to vaccinate the population?"

This isn't the method they are going for, presumably because it is difficult to vaccinate against something that doesn;t yet exist.
What they are doing is stockpiling anti-viral drugs (such as tamiflu) which are not vaccines.
And I guess they are doing as much as can be done given the constraints.

Mornin Novo,

Swans are vulnerable so it was expected but the dissaponting thing, considering we are meant to be on high alert, is that it had been drifting in and out on the tide for four days and there are reports of Seagulls eating off of it.

The biggest risk of course is if this is another scientists / experts wolf cry. Remember Y2K, VCJD and SARS and do we really need to apply a similar level of repsonse to one swan as would be applied to a Nuclear attack i.e. the good and the great are meeting in the COBRA command centre. I can see Blair chairing the meeting with a cigar and glass of brandy.

"So this brings us to the debate of whether a human strain of H5N1 will actually appear, and if so, how virulent will it actually be."

Apparently, the infamous 'flu epidemic of 1919 was probably Avian Flu. It killed an enormous number of people but it was hardly a holocaust. Anyone interested in what would happen if a deadly virulent disease broke-out would do well to read about it, though

"What are your thoughts and comments about the possibility of Bird Flu infecting the human population? Do you think the government are doing enough to vaccinate the population? Or do you think the risk is minimal and a big fuss about nothing?"

It might well infect the human population. The government are almost certainly "doing enough", apparently their preparations are based on pretty-much worst-case scenario so they can't be accused of not being ready. Unfortunately, this can make it look like they are *expecting* said worst-case scenario.

Generally, we are far far better prepared and more efficient than we were in 1919 and medical science is much more advanced. However, if there is a total outbreak of Avian Flu in the human population then there will be a lot of deaths, panic and trouble but it will not be the End of Civilisation.

It's worth remembering that other countries *have* had human cases of this disease breaking-out and have managed to contain them.

I do think IMHO that everything has been blown out of all proportion.

Bird Flu has been around for a long time. The last pandemic we had was in the early 1900's wasn't it? I can't remember how many people died, but it certaly went into the 10's of thousands.

The difficulty with this one is the fact that it hasn't mutated in China or any other country contaminated with it, so why should it suddenly mutate when it hits the UK to a strain that can be passed between humans.

I think that the media are enjoying the mass-hysteria on this one, after all more people die daily of poverty, heart disease, alcoholism etc etc than the relative few that have died of this in total.

Apparently according to the people that know, the problem isn't going to be with the birds, it's the pigs! Why I have no idea, but watch this space.

This link explains about the Pigs and also one or two other points.

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/01/21/birdflu.facts/

<<"It's worth remembering that other countries *have* had human cases of this disease breaking-out and have managed to contain them.">>

Humans have picked up the virus from birds, but that's not the worrying problem, nor is it an outbreak. What hasn't happened, but might, is for the virus to develop a means of human-to-human transmission.

I suppose we should be glad it has arrived now. Far better than it arriving in the middle of winter. We probably have got the best chance we are going to get to deal with it.

I'm looking into the possibilty of returning to Northern Ireland for the duration. Even without an Agriculture Minster dedicated to the case I'm sure as with BE they'll manage the situation far better than the mainland again.

"What are your thoughts and comments about the possibility of Bird Flu infecting the human population? Do you think the government are doing enough to vaccinate the population? Or do you think the risk is minimal"

For the avian flu to spread big scale in the human population, it needs to mutate, possibly by crossing over with a human flu strain - to get the genetic components to allow it to do so.

According to a recent study in Nature, the likelihood seems to be very much reduced - as the avian (at least H5N1) and human flu strains occupy very different areas in the lungs. Human flu vira seems to occupy mostly the higher parts of the respiratory tract whereas avian flu virus particles only spread in the very bottom of the lungs. So, they do'nt "socialise" very much. Added benefit is that the breathing/sneezing spreading of virus particles is limited as the particles sit too deep for that.
(from memory of media reporting of the study - pls allow for inaccuracies)

From the CNN article:
"Hong Kong's entire poultry population, estimated at around 1.5 million birds, was destroyed within three days. This is thought to have averted a pandemic."

Well - for a pandemic to occur, you still need to have human-to-human spreading of the virus. I do not think that has been proven anywhere.

So, basically - don't handle dead birds, do cook your poultry meals throughly (as always - Salmonellae & Campylobacter are still out there ) and take extra care if you're a hoppy bird breeder of sort. No need for vaccines etc.

Is how I read it, anyway.

Can I also please say:-

PLEASE PLEASE DONT STOP FEEDING YOUR BIRDIES IN THE GARDEN, SOME OF THEM RELY ON YOU AT THIS TIME OF YEAR TO STAY ALIVE!

I thank you

http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,,1748057,00.html

"RSPB confirms H5N1 strain"

So, anyone wanna play 'guess tomorrows headline in the papers'?

RSPB IDs H5N1 DNA: UK RIP

Ah... 6 words, lowercase letters *and* puntuation - that'll be The Times then?

>>>"Do you think the government are doing enough to vaccinate the population?"

This isn't the method they are going for, presumably because it is difficult to vaccinate against something that doesn;t yet exist.
What they are doing is stockpiling anti-viral drugs (such as tamiflu) which are not vaccines.
And I guess they are doing as much as can be done given the constraints.<<<

I'm pretty sure I heard that the government has bought production time from at least one pharmeceutical company to produce 120 million flu jabs once any pandemic strain has been identified.

So with all the production time bought up by the EU and the US will Mdeicin Sans Frontiers be prepared to vaccinate the population of the 3rd world country[ies] that the virus is most likely to mutate in if/when it does?