Are you Statistically Prepared to Become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

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The Prime Minister is the name now associated with the more historic position of First Lord of the Treasury. The position came into existence in the 17th Century when the monarch’s treasury was first trusted to a commission, as opposed to an individual. The First Lord is a throw back to an even more ancient role that of the Lord High Treasurer a post that was established by Henry I in 1126.

It became the predominant role in government when Sir Robert Walpole held the post. Since then is has usually, but not always, been associated with the post of the Prime Minister of the government. 50 men and one woman have held the post of 'Prime Minister' since the post of Prime Minister since Walpole served as First Lord of the Treasury from 1721-1742. The term Prime Minster didn't become the official name for the position until Henry Campbell-Bannerman in 1905. So although not all the below people were known as Prime Minster they were the top minister in charge of the Government of their day.

The position has changed hands on 74 occasions. William Gladstone is the only person to have had four separate terms1 as Prime Minister. Edward Stanley the 14th Earl or Derby, Robert Cecil the 3rd Marquis of Salisbury and Stanley Baldwin and have each had three distinct periods as Prime Minster. Fourteen have also had 2 tenures in the post. Many have also retained the position following a successful election victory.

What are the links that bind these men and woman in common? Are there any common traits by accident of birth, sociology, upbringing or choices that you might share which are preparing you for that role? Hopefully this entry will show what has gone before. As for tomorrow who knows? Assuming you are converse in Foreign Policy, a whiz at national level macroeconomics, know the answer to the West Lothian and Northern Ireland questions; what quirks of fate will best prepare you statistically in you quest for the keys to number 102?

The Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom

So who are the 51 people to have held the post? Here is the full list in chronological order for when they first held the post.

NameBirth NamePartyDates of term/s
Sir Robert WalpoleN/AWhig1721-1742
Earl of WilmingtonSpencer ComptonWhig1742-3
Henry PelhamN/AWhig1743-54
Duke of NewcastleThomas Pelham-HollesWhig1754-6
1757-62
Duke of DevonshireWilliam CavendishWhig1756-7
Earl of ButeJohn StuartTory1762-3
George GrenvilleN/AWhig1763-5
Marquess of RockinghamCharles WentworthWhig1765-6
1782
Earl of ChathamWilliam Pitt the ElderWhig1766-8
Duke of GraftonAugustus Henry FitzroyWhig1767-70
Lord NorthFrederick NorthTory1770-82
Earl ShelburneWilliam PettyWhig1782-3
Duke of PortlandWilliam BentinckTory1783
1807-9
William PittN/ATory1783-1801
1804-6
Henry AddingtonN/ATory1801-4
Lord GrenvilleWilliam Wyndham GrenvilleWhig1806-07
Spencer PercevalN/ATory1809-12
Earl of LiverpoolRobert Banks JenkinsonTory1812-27
George CanningN/ATory1827
Viscount GoderichFrederick RobinsonTory1827-8
Duke of WellingtonArthur WellesleyTory1828-30
Earl GreyCharles GreyWhig1830-34
Viscount MelbourneWilliam LambWhig1834
1835-41
Sir Robert PeelN/ATory1834-5
1841-6
Earl RussellJohn RussellWhig1846-51
1865-6
Earl of DerbyEdward StanleyConservative1852
1858-9
1866-8
Earl of AberdeenGeorge Hamilton GordonTory1852-5
Viscount PalmerstonHenry TempleLiberal1855-8
1859-65
Benjamin DisrealiN/AConservative1868
1874-80
William GladstoneN/ALiberal1868-74
1880-85
1886
1892-94
Marquess of SalisburyRobert Gasgoygne-CecilConservative1885-6
1886-92
1895-1902
Earl of RoseberyArchibald Philip-Primrose RoseberyLiberal1894-5
Arthur BalfourN/AConservative1902-5
Sir Henry Bannerman-CampbellN/ALiberal1905-08
Herbert AsquithN/ALiberal1908-16
David Lloyd GeorgeN/ALiberal1916-22
Andrew Bonar LawN/AConservative1922-3
Stanley BaldwinN/AConservative1923
1924-29
1935-37
Ramsey MacDonaldJames Ramsey MacDonaldLabour1924
1929-35
Neville ChamberlainN/AConservative1937-40
Sir Winston ChaurchillN/AConservative1940-45
1951-55
Clement AtleeN/ALabour1945-51
Sir Anthony EdenN/AConservative1955-57
Harold MacmillanN/AConservative1957-63
Sir Alec Douglas-HomeN/AConservative1964-64
Harold WilsonN/ALabour1964-1970
1974-76
Edward HeathN/AConservative1970-74
James CallaghanN/ALabour1976-79
Margaret ThatcherMargaret RobertsConservative1979-90
John MajorN/AConservative1990-97
Tony BlairAnthony Charles Lynton BlairLabour1997-present

The Important Prerequisites

Like becoming President of the USA there are some essential criteria you have to meet. Unlike the other post there are less restrictions on Nationality, Age etc. In fact the Prime Minster is invited by the monarch3 to become Prime Minster and form a government. This occurs after each general election and also should a Prime Minster die in office or resign their position without calling a general election.

Therefore the sole criteria is to be an adult. Being a prominent politician known by the monarch of the day is an obvious bonus, however, recently the monarch has mostly but not always invited the leader of the largest party in parliament to form the government4. Now that these are all elected by some form of democratic process the monarch can no longer really go against the wishes of so many subjects and call someone who is not leader of the party.

Also as you most likely will be a member of the House of Commons you must be over 21 a British, Commonwealth or Irish citizen resident in the UK at the time of your nomination and the day of the poll.

Citizens of other European Union countries cannot become candidates for a Parliamentary election. There are disqualifications from being a candidate and therefore an MP:

  • Peers who are members of the House of Lords
  • Bishops and Arch Bishops who are entitled so sit in the House of Lords as Lords Spiritual
  • Un-discharged bankrupts
  • Civil Servants and other paid office holders of the Crown including judges, members of the armed forces or police
  • Members of the legislator of another country outside of the Commonwealth
  • Government nominated directors of commercial companies
  • Prisoners convicted and sentenced to a prison term of more than 1 year, or people found guilty of election offences, or a corrupt or illegal practice, by an election court
  • In common law, 'idiots' cannot become Members of Parliament and 'lunatics' are disqualified in non-lucid moments

What follows are some other helpful things you can seek to do to help you gain the office of Prime Minister. Also are most of the statistics of the past Prime Ministers which governed by chance you may have no ability to overturn, but then again you may not need to.

Some people may ask but there is no advice on how to rise to be leader of your party in order to stand a good chance of being Prime Minister. There are two reasons why this has not been included.

Firstly there are too many ways that you could achieve this, and the ways differ greatly from party to party. Secondly as the author is involved in politics and in not yet a leader of a political party it may give away his game plan. Suffice it to say in the words of Jim Hacker fictional Minster of Administrative Affairs who later became a fictional Prime Minster, 'I have no ambition to serve in that way.'

Lord or Commoner?

Of the 51 Prime Ministers 32 have been commoners and not held a title when they first took over the premiership. Of the other 19 nine were Earls 5, five have been Dukes, three Viscounts, two Marquises.

No Lord has been Prime Minister since the end of Robert Cecil, the Marquis of Salisbury’s, third term in 1902. The Prime Minister since that time has been generally the leader of the majority party in the House of Commons. However Alec Douglas-Home had been a Member of Parliament from 1931-45 and 1951-53. He had inherited a title as 14th Earl of Home which he renounced so that he could serve as Prime Minister in the Commons in succession to Harold MacMillan from 1963-64.

Therefore at present you need to sit in the commons. Since hereditary peers have now been abolished from taking an automatic seat in the House of Lords by quirk of birth we no longer need to differentiate between the two classes.

Two of the parties have already benefited from the change in the status of hereditary peers. Liberal Democrat John Thurso, 3rd Viscount Thurso, was the first hereditary peer to be elected in 2001. Conservative Michael Ancram who became the 13th Marquess of Lothian in 2004 became the first hereditary peer who could continue to sit in the commons without disclaiming his title.

We are still waiting for the first Lord to become Prime Minister from the Commons but no doubt that day will come. Therefore you stand the best chance of becoming Prime Minister my Lords, Ladies and Gentlemen by getting elected to the House of Commons.

Party Allegiance

Three parties or groupings have held power in the United Kingdom since 1721. They are the Whigs later the Liberals now the Liberal Democrats, the Tories now Conservatives and fianlly Labour. Before parties were officially formed occasionally independent Lords were asked to form parliaments. So far 22 Prime Minister's have been of Tory or Conservative persuasion from William Pitt the Younger (1783-1801) to John Major (1991-97). Seventeen have been Whigs or Liberal starting with Robert Walpole (1721-42) until David Lloyd George (1916-22). Five have been Labour since Ramsey McDonald (1924) to Tony Blair (1997-present). Seven had no affiliation the last being George Hamilton Gordon 4th Earl of Aberdeen (1852-55), although like many others his independence has since been placed based on ideology into one of the rival camps.

The two big parties, the Conservatives and Labour, have traditionally held more than 70% of the vote in General Elections since the 1920s. The biggest share of the vote they achieved was 97% in 1951. However in 1983 they only gathered 71.8% due to the strength then of the new alliance between the Social Democratic and Liberal Parties. So most people would assume that future Prime Ministers would have to be aligned to one of the big two parties. However, at the 2004 European Elections the big two gained less that 50% of the vote with other parties including the Liberal Democrats gathering the rest. Maybe there is a chance that multi-party politics is on the horizon and bi-partisan politics may be consigned to history.

At the 2005 election Labour had 37% of the vote, Conservative 33% and the Liberal Democrats 22% with other taking 8%. Therefore the big two only took 70% with an increase in the votes for other parties. The Liberal Democrat Leader said that three party politics was now established in the nation. However, many commentators will not accept this until the Liberal Democrats return to a position of a party in power nationally.

Therefore your best chance of becoming Prime Minister is propably still to be in one of the big two parties though within a generation it may be possible to become Prime Minister from any of the big three.

Place of Birth

Not surprisingly the largest number of Prime Ministers have been born in England with 39 in total. Scotland can claim five, Ireland two and Canada one. There are also four whose exact location of birth is not fully known.

Wales's most famous Prime Minister David Lloyd George was actually born in Manchester. Therefore the Welsh are still awaiting someone born in the land of their fathers to become thier Prime Minister.

At the time of writing, the current leaders of all the major parties currently were born outside England. Tony Blair (Labour Prime Minister) Edinburgh, Scotland; Michael Howard (Conservative) was born in Llenelli, Wales; Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrat) in Inverness, Scotland; Alex Salmond (Scottish Nationalist Party) in Linlithgow, Scotland and Elfyn Llwyd (Plaid Cymru) in Betws-y-Coed, Wales.

England

  • London - Duke of Newcastle, Earl of Bute, George Grenville, Earl of Chatham, Lord North, Henry Addington, Spencer Perceval, Earl of Liverpool, George Canning, Viscount Goderich, Viscount Melbourne, Viscount Palmerston, Earl Russell, Benjamin Disreali, Earl of Rosebery, Clement Atlee, Harold MacMillan, Alec Douglas-Home

  • Home Counties - Henry Pelham, William Pitt, Lord Grenville, Marquis of Salisbury, Edward Heath, James Callaghan, John Major

  • West Country - Stanley Baldwin

  • East Anglia - Robert Walpole, Margaret Thatcher

  • Midlands - Earl of Wilmington, Neville Chamberlain, Winston Churchill

  • North East - Earl Grey, Herbert Henry Asquith, Anthony Eden, Harold Wilson

  • North West - Robert Peel, Earl of Derby, William Gladstone, David Lloyd George

  • Ireland - Earl of Shelburne, Duke of Wellington

  • Scotland - Earl of Aberdeen, James Balfour, Henry Campbell-Bannerman, Ramsey MacDonald, Tony Blair

  • Canada - Andrew Bonar Law

  • Unknown - Duke of Devonshire, Marquis of Rockingham, Duke of Grafton, Duke of Portland

Put another way the length of tenure by country of Birth since Walpole in April 1721 up to 31 December 2003 is:

Country of BirthYearsDays% of Total
Ireland32211.3%
Scotland191936.9%
Canada02090.2%
England25135989.4%
Unknown61512.3%
Total281 c. 3036100

Historically you best chance of becoming Prime Minster was to be English and born in London. However, as this was because all the powerful families had a house in the capital for when the father of the house was working this would account for this scew. At the moment there appears to be disadvantage on being born anywhere. Although if you are looking to become a conservative Prime Minister it may be best to avoid being Scottish. Michael Howard has said that a Scottish Lawyer is not the solution for restoring his party to a position of dominence.

Gender

As has already been mention all but one of the UK's PMs have been men. The one exception is Margaret Thatcher (1979-1990) who was the longest serving PM since the Earl of Liverpool (1812-27). As all the major party leaders are also male sadly your best chance of becoming Prime Minister is to have snapped up a Y chromosome while in your mother's womb: sorry ladies.

First Name

Out of all the possible names in the English language only 26 have made it into the highest office of the land. Of the top five, three are also amongst the top recurring names of Kings. There have been four Williams, eight Henrys and six Georges on the throne. However, Edwards may have reigned eight times since the Norman conquest and a few times in Saxon times but there has only been one Prime Minister to share that name and he is often remembered as Ted Heath (1970-74).

The most popular name for Scottish monarchs with a total of seven is James 7. But they only have two namesakes as Prime Minster Callaghan and MacDonald. The latter known by his second given name Ramsey.

  • William - 8 Devonshire, Chatham8, Shelburne, Pitt, Lord Grenville, Portland, Melbourne, Gladstone

  • Henry - 5 Pelham, Addington, Palmerston, Campbell-Bannerman, Asquith

  • Robert - 4 Walpole, Liverpool, Peel, Salisbury

  • George - 3 Geo. Grenville, Canning, Aberdeen

  • John - 3 Bute, Russell, Major

  • Anthony - 2 Eden, Blair

  • Archibald - 2 Derby, Rosebery

  • Arthur - 2 Wellington, Balfour

  • Charles - 2 Rockingham, Grey

  • Frederick - 2 North, Goderich

  • James - 2 MacDonald, Callaghan

  • Harold - 2 MacMillan, Wilson

  • Spencer - 2 Wilmington, Perceval

  • Alec/Alexander - Douglas-Home

  • Andrew - Bonar Law

  • Augustus - Grafton

  • Benjamin - Disreali

  • Clement - Atlee

  • David - Lloyd George

  • Edward - Heath

  • Margaret - Thatcher

  • Neville - Chamberlain

  • Stanley - Baldwin

  • Thomas - Newcastle

  • Winston - Churchill

Therefore having a regal name is good. All of the names that have three or more Prime Ministers have ruled some part of the United Kingdom at some point in their history. Although if you are called Ethelbert we suspect the country may just be as unready for you as your famous namesake.

Order amongst Siblings

Key:

b = brother/s

s = sister/s

ch = children

el = elder

yn = younger

I make to apologies to ranking their position as a son as with only one exception has a Prime Minster been someone’s daughter. Also in a hereditary system such as the United Kingdoms one's position amongst the sons is of significance.

  • Eldest Son - 12 Devonshire (1 el s, 5 yn ch); Bute (1 el s, 6 yn ch); North (5 others); Shelburne (5 others); Addington (2 yn b, 3 el s); Portland (2 el s, 3 yn ch); Peel (10 others, 2 el s); Aberdeen (6 yn ch); Derby (of 7 ch); Disreali (5 other ch, 1 el s); Balfour (7 other ch inc. 2 el s); Douglas-Home (6 others)

  • Elder Son - 6 Canning (1yn b 1 el s); Rosebery (1 b, 2 el s); Lloyd George (1 b, 2 el s); Churchill (1 b); Heath (1 b); Blair (1 el s, 1 yn b)

  • Second Son9 - 12 Newcastle (1 el 1 yn b, 6 el 1 yn s); Geo. Grenville (6 others); Chatham (2 el s, 3 yn ch); Grafton (1 yn b); Pitt (2 el s, 1 yn ch); Perceval (1 el b, 3 el s, 4 yn ch); Goderich (1 yn b); Grey (7 yn ch); Melbourne (4 yn ch); Palmerston (4 others, 1 el b); Campbell-Bannerman (1 b, 2 el s); Asquith (4 others)

  • Other Middle Sons - 10 Walpole (2 el b, 2 el s, 12 yn ch); Pelham (3rd, 6 el s, 2 yn ch); Rockingham (5th son, 3 el s, 2 yn ch); Lord Grenville (3rd 3 el sis, 3 yn ch); Wellington (5th 1 el sis, 3 yn ch); Gladstone (4 of 5, 1 el sis); Salisbury (3rd 2 el and 1 yn b, 2 el s); Chamberlain (3 of 6 ch); Atlee (4 of 5, 3 el s); Eden (3 of 4, 1 el s)

  • Youngest Son - 5 Wilmington (2 el b, 2 el s); Russell (2 el b, 4 yn half b); Bonar Law (of 5 ch and 2 yn half s); MacMillan (2 b); Major (2 b, 1 el s)

  • Younger Daughter - 1 Thatcher (1 s)

  • Only Son Youngest - 2 Wilson (1 s); Callaghan (1 s)

  • Only Child - 3 Liverpool (of father's first marriage, 2 yn ch); Baldwin; MacDonald

In total eighteen of the Prime Ministers were the first born son. Of these ten actually had at least one elder sister. Only three were an only child; however Lord Liverpool's family circle did expand following his father's re-marriage. Eleven Prime Ministers started out as the youngest or only sibling in the family, however three of these had younger half siblings. There is little statistical advantage over one position than another. The possible exception of the eldest having a slight edge due to historic nature of PMs sitting in the hereditary House of Lords.

Some interesting historical notes both William Pitt the Elder (Chatham) and the Younger were second sons, maybe they were both genetically striving to achieve more recognition. The same applies to other father and son team, the Grenvilles. George was a second son, but it was his third son William who also achieved the highest office. Winston Churchill may not have been the successful Prime Minster he was if by quirk of fate and his uncle producing an heir. As the elder son of an aristocratic spare he may have found himself confined in the Lords in a period when the commons alone produced the Prime Ministers.

Education (1) School

Before the start of the 20th Century education was vitally important top become a Member of Parliament. Before MPs were given a wage they were expected to support themselves and their family through what work they could do outside of the Palaces of Westminster. These careers tended to be the law, finance, medicine and the likes and all required a university education or a family stipend from the family firm or estates. Therefore the common poorly educated men did not really become fully integrated in Parliament until the 20th Century.

  • Eton 18 - Walpole, Bute, Geo. Grenville, Chatham, North, Lord Grenville, Canning, Wellington, Grey, Melbourne, Derby, Gladstone, Salisbury, Rosebery, Balfour, Eden, MacMillan, Douglas-Home

  • Harrow 7 - Perceval, Goderich, Peel, Aberdeen, Palmerston, Baldwin, Churchill

  • Westminster 6- Pelham, Newcastle, Rockingham, Grafton, Portland, Russell

  • Glasgow High School 2- Campbell-Bannerman, Bonar Law (b)

  • And 1 each for the following

  • Charterhouse - Liverpool

  • Chatham House Grammar - Heath

  • Drainie Church of Scotland School - MacDonald

  • Fettes, Edinburgh - Blair

  • Gilbertfield, Hamilton, Scotland - Bonar Law (a)

  • Grantham Girls' School - Thatcher

  • Haileybury - Atlee

  • Highham Hall School, Walthamstow - Disreali

  • Huddersfield College - Asquith (a)

  • Llanystumdwy Village School - Lloyd George

  • Moravian School, Leeds - Asquith (b)

  • Pembroke Hall, Cambridge - Pitt

  • Portsmouth Northern Secondary - Callaghan

  • Royds Hall Secondary, Huddersfield - Wilson (a)

  • Rugby - Chamberlain

  • Rutlish Grammar School, Wimbledon - Major

  • St. Paul's School, Westminster - Wilmington

  • Winchester - Addington

  • Wirral Grammar, Bebington - Wilson (b)

  • Unknown/home - Devonshire10, Shelburne

Education (2) University

  • Oxford - 25Geo. Grenville, Shelburne, Lord Grenville, Portland, Liverpool, Canning, Peel, Derby, Gladstone, Salisbury, Rosebery, Eden, Douglas-Home (Christ Church); Asquith, MacMillan, Heath (Balliol); Wilmington, Chatham (a), North (Trinity); Pelham (Hart Hall now Hertford); Addington (Brasenose); Atlee (University); Wilson (Jesus); Thatcher (Somerville); Blair (St Johns.)

  • Cambridge - 12Perceval, Grey, Melbourne, Balfour, Campbell-Bannerman, Baldwin (Trinity); Goderich, Aberdeen, Palmerston (b) (St. John's); Walpole (Kings); Newcastle (Clare Hall); Grafton (Peterhouse);

  • Edinburgh - 2Palmerston (a), Russell

  • All the following 1 alumni each.
  • Birmingham - Chamberlain11

  • Leiden, Netherlands - Bute

  • London - MacDonald (Birkbeck)12

  • Sandhurst Military Academy - Churchill

  • Royal Academy of Equitation, Angers, France - Wellington

  • Utrecht - Chatham (b)

  • University of Life - 8Devonshire, Rockingham; Pitt, Disreali, Lloyd George, Bonar Law, Callaghan, Major

Age First Entered Parliament

With 24 of our Premiers entering parliament for the first time before the age of 25, and a further twelve before they turned 30. Almost half of all our Prime Minster's entered parliament in their twenties. However, age need not be a barrier, Chamberlain was the eldest debutante at 49 and if only for the dispute with Hitler he may have been better remembered.

The current Prime Minister was first elected to Parliament just shy of his 31st birthday, so he does not fit the majority of under 30s mentioned above. Of the current leaders of the other main parties in Westminster only Charles Kennedy fits this overwhelming trend. He was 23 and the youngest MP when he was first elected for the Social Democratic Party (now a Liberal Democrat) in 1983. With an equal length of service Michael Howard was 41 when he first became a Conservative MP also in 1983. Alex Salmond of the Scottish Nationalists was 32 in 1987, his Welsh Counterpart Elfyn Lloyd of Plaid Cymru was 40 in 1992.

Under 25

21 exactly the age of Maturity13: Liverpool, Russell

21 Devonshire, Rockingham, Grafton, North, Pitt, Peel, Rosebery

22 Pelham, Lord Grenville, Portland, Grey, Aberdeen, Palmerston, Disreali, Gladstone

23 Newcastle, Shelburne, Canning, Derby, Salisbury

24 Bute, Chatham, Goderich

25-29

25 Walpole, Wilmington, Balfour, Churchill

26 Addington, Melbourne, Eden

27 Lloyd George

28 Geo. Grenville, Douglas-Home, Thatcher

29 Wilson

30-39

30 MacMillan, Blair

32 Campbell-Bannerman

33 Perceval, Asquith, Callaghan

36 Wellington, Major

37 Atlee

39 MacDonald

40-49

40 Baldwin

42 Bonar Law

49 Chamberlain

Career

While undoubtedly you will spend many years sitting on the back benches, answering constituency correspondence and serving in cabinet and shadow cabinets you will have had to spend some time doing something before you first get elected. So which careers are best suited for Prime Minister creation.

  • Law - 12 Wilmington, Bute, Geo. Grenville, Addington, Perceval, Canning, Melbourne, Asquith, Lloyd George, Atlee, Thatcher, Blair
  • Landowner14 - 7 Walpole, Newcastle, Devonshire, Portland, Walpole, Rosebery, Douglas-Home
  • Politics 15 - 6 Pelham, Chatham, Grafton, North, Pitt, Salisbury
  • Military - 5 Rockingham, Shelburne, Wellington, Churchill, Heath16
  • Banking - 2 Bonar Law, Major
  • Journalism - 2 MacDonald, Churchill
  • Manufacturing - 2 Baldwin, Chamberlain
  • Publishing - 2 Lord Grenville17, MacMillan
  • Civil Servant - 1 Wilson
  • Trade Unionist - 1 Callaghan
  • Writer - 1 Disreali
  • Unknown – 3 Balfour, Campbell-Bannerman, Eden

Left- or Right-Handedness

Historically left-handedness has been viewed with suspicion indeed the word sinister comes from the Latin stem for left-handed. Therefore many parents and teachers tried to re-educate their naturally left-handed children. Therefore is not surprising that there are few recorded left-handed Prime Ministers, indeed there are only two Churchill and Callaghan.

Region Represented

As stated above since 1902 all the Prime Ministers of the UK have been commoners elected to represent their constituency in the House of Commons. As such each represents a certain part of the country. A Member of Parliament need not be a resident of the area he represents.

Also as recently as the early 20th Century if an MP took a cabinet position and therefore was promoted to accepting pay from the parliament he had to seek approval from his constituents again in a by-election. These were largely unopposed but led to some episodes in Winston Churchill's colourful career in the House of Commons. Also before elections started being held on one day, general elections were held over a period of weeks. This helped William Gladstone on the occasions that he found himself ousted by the voters but able to contest a later contest in the same general election. As these two men are now seen as two of the UK's greatest Prime Ministers it just shows how a fickle public can ruin your political ambition.

One surprising fact is that though many of our Prime Ministers were born in London very few actually represented the capital when they first took office. Indeed apart from Atlee and Thatcher, only Bonar Law and Churchill have represented London seats at any time in their career.

Some of our Prime Ministers have actually moved around the country on losing seats or to seek safer seats. They are therefore listed under the region that they represented when first elected Prime Minister. The seat they held when elected Prime Minister is italicised, the other regions are indicated in bold. A * at the end of last Parliamentary seat indicates newly ennobled to House of Lords almost immediately after leaving the commons, a + indicates inheritance of the family seat.

England

  • London2 - Atlee (Limehouse 1922-1955*); Thatcher (Finchley 1959-1992*)
  • Home Counties6- Geo. Grenville (Buckingham 1741-1770); Palmerston (Horsham 1805-1806, Newtown (Isle of Wright) 1806-1811, Cambridge University 1811- 1831 East Anglia, Bletchley 1831, South Hampshire 1832-1835, Tiverton 1835-1865); Disreali (Maidstone 1837-1841, Shrewsbury 1841-1847 West Country, Buckinghamshire 1847-1876*); Churchill (Oldham NW 1900-1906, Manchester North WestNW 1906-08, DundeeScotland 1908-22, Epping 1924-1945, Woodford 1945-1964); MacMillan (Stockton-on-Tees NE 1924-1945, Bromley 1945-196418); Heath (Bexley, then Old Bexley and Sidcup 1950-2001)
  • West Country2 - Addington (Devizes West Country 1784-1805*); Baldwin (Bewdley 1908-1937*)
  • East Anglia1 - Walpole (Castle Rising 1701-1702, King's Lynn 1702-1712,1713-1742)
  • Midlands6 - North (Banbury 1754-1790+); Perceval (Northampton 1796-1812); Peel (Cashel Ireland 1809-1812, Chippenham 1812-1817 West Country, Oxford University 1817-1830, Tamworth 1830-1850); Chamberlain (Birmingham Ladywood 1918-1940); Eden (Warwick and Leamington 1923- 195719); Major (Huntingdon 1979-2001)
  • North East2 - Chatham (Old Sarum West Country 1735-1754, Aldborough 1754-1766*); Blair (Sedgefield 1983-present)
  • North West5 - Pitt (Appleby 1781-1806); Canning (Newtown Home Counties 1793-1809, Liverpool 1812-1827); Gladstone (Newark 1832-1845 Midlands, Oxford University 1847-1865 Midlands, South Lancashire 1865-1979, Midlothian Scotland 1879-1895); Wilson (Ormskirk 1945-1983*); Balfour (Hertford 1874-1885 H.C., East Manchester 1885-1906, 1906-1922*)
  • Ireland1 - Russell (Tavistock 1812-1820, Huntingtonshire Midlands 1820-1826, Bandon 1826-1861*)
  • Scotland4 - Campbell-Bannerman (Stirling Burghs 1868-1908); Asquith (East Fife 1886-1918, Paisley 1920-1925*); Bonar Law (Glasgow Blackfriars 1900-1906, Dulwich London 1906-1923); Douglas-Home (Lanark 1931-1951+; Kinross 1963-1974*)
  • Wales3 - David Lloyd George (Caernarvon 1890-1944*); MacDonald (Leicester Midlands 1906-1918, Aberavon 1922-1935, Scottish Universities 1935-37); MidlandsCallaghan (Cardiff South, then called Cardiff South West 1945-1987*)
  • Unknown1 - Pelham (1717-1754)
  • In Lords when first became PM - Wilmington (1698-1710, 1713-1728*); Newcastle (Inherited seat soon after 21st birthday); Devonshire (Unkown seat 1741-51+); Bute (Elected as Scottish Peer to House of Lords from 1736-1741, 1761-1780); Rockingham (Assumed family seat on his coming of age); Grafton; Shelburne (Chipping Wycombe Home Counties 1760-1761+); Lord Grenville (Buckinhamshire Home Counties 1782-1790*); Portland (Woeby 1861-62+); Liverpool (Appleby NW 1791-1808+); Goderich (Carlow Ireland 1806-1807, Ripon NE 1807-1827*); Wellington (Rye (Sussex) 1806-1814*); Grey (Northumberland NE 1786-1807+); Melbourne (Leominster West Country 1805-1828+); Derby (Stockbridge Home Counties 1822-1830, Preston NW 1830, Windsor Home Counties 1831-1844*); Aberdeen (Inherited Scottish Title at age of 17); Rosebery (Inherited Scottish Title at 21); Salisbury (Stamford NE 1853-1868+)

So of our 32 commoners to assume the highest post in Government:

Region RepresentedNumber% of Total
London26.25
Home Counties618.75
West Country26.25
East Anglia13.125
Midlands618.75
North East26.25
North West515.625
Ireland13.125
Scotland412.5
Wales39.37
Unknown13.125

Previous Cabinet Posts

Most but, not every, Prime Minster has had some previous experience of being in Government. Indeed the current Prime Minster Tony Blair was not even elected the last time his party was in power, however there had been 18 years of rule by the Conservative Party by 1997. Some roles are not currently cabinet posts and some only appear in time of war see for example Churchill's cabinet history between 1914-18.

However, most of the Prime Ministers have at one point held one of the big three positions Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home or Foreign Secretary. These are the major positions of power outside the Prime Minster who is also the First Lord of the Treasury. However, as can been seen below with the letters indicating which post this was for the future PM in their career, there are other routes to the top job.

  • Chancellor - North (a); Pitt; Perceval (b); Goderich (c); Disreali; Gladstone (b); Lloyd George (b); Bonar Law (b); Baldwin (b); Chamberlain (c); Churchill (d); Eden (a); MacMillan (d); Callaghan (a); Major (c)
  • Foreign Secretary - Chatham (b); Lord Grenville (d); Liverpool (b); Canning (a, c); Grey (b); Aberdeen (b); Palmerston (b); Salisbury; Rosebery; Balfour (a); Eden (Commonwealth/Dominions b), (d); MacMillan (c); Douglas-Home (b); Callaghan (c); Major (a)
  • Home Secretary - Shelburne (c); Lord Grenville (c); Portland; Liverpool (c); Melbourne (b); Peel (b); Russell (c); Churchill (b); Callaghan (b)
  • Leader of the House (Commons unless stated) - Geo. Grenville (a); North (b); Liverpool, Lords (a); Russell (b); Major (b)
  • Trade - Shelburne (a); Canning (b); Goderich (b); Gladstone (a); Lloyd George (a); Baldwin (a); Churchill (a); Wilson; Heath (d)
  • Defence - MacMillan (b)
  • War - Walpole (b); Pelham (a); Liverpool (d); Goderich (d); Aberdeen (c); Palmerston (a); Campbell-Bannerman; Eden (c)
  • Munitions - Lloyd George (c); Churchill (c)
  • First Lord of the Admiralty - Walpole (a); Geo. Grenville (c); Goderich (a); Grey (a); Churchill (c)
  • Commonwealth/Dominions (Initially Colonies) - Shelburne (b); Goderich (d); Derby, Colonies; Bonar Law (a); Atlee (b), Douglas-Home (a)
  • Attorney General - Perceval (a)
  • Education - Thatcher
  • Health - Chamberlain (b)
  • Housing - MacMillan (a)
  • Ireland - Lord Grenville (a); Wellington20; Melbourne (a); Peel (a)
  • Labour - Heath (b)
  • Secretary of State for the Northern Department - Bute; Geo. Grenville (b); Grafton
  • Scotish Secretary - Balfour (b)
  • Chief Whip - Heath (a)
  • Lord Privy Seal - Atlee (a), Heath (c)
  • Chacellor of the Duchy of Lancaster - Aberdeen (a)
  • Paymaster General - Wilmington (b); Chatham (a)
  • Postmaster General - Russell (a); Chamberlain (a)
  • Speaker of the House of Commons21 - Wilmington (a); Addington; Lord Grenville (b)
  • None - Newcastle; Rockingham; MacDonald22; Blair
  • Unknown - Devonshire

Summary

Although the odds are about 50/50 of becoming PM while either a Lord or Commoner, these days you are more likely not to have a title but be a grafting politician. You will have to start young there is a 73% chance that you have entered parliament before your were 30 almost 50% before you were 25. It may not matter in few years time which of the main three parties you belong to they may all have a chance in the right political climate of being the largest party.

However, you will overwhelmingly have more chance of success if you are English born only 16% haven't been and the PM has been English for 89% of the time23

You stand the best chance of being Prime Minister if you represent a seat in the Home Counties or the Midlands. However, don't be disheartened if you can only get elected in the North West or Scotland as these regions are only just behind. best to avoid London for while it is extremely handy to the Palaces of Westminster only two Prime Ministers have actually represented constituents in the city itself while premier.

Although 35% of past Prime Ministers have been educated at Eton in the more egalitarian 20th Century none have been since 1964. So your choice of school isn't so important as long as you work hard because 71% of Prime Ministers have been to either Oxford or Cambridge for their degree, although two recent successors in the mid term of a parliament Callaghan and Major did not attend any university at all.

You will generally have had to have served in cabinet: the higher the position the better. One of the big three offices, Chancellor, Home or Foreign Secretary almost a pre-requisite. Only four are known to have managed to become PM without Cabinet experience one was the first Labour leader, another was the first from their party for 18 years. So unless you fancy many years in opposition you need to get into government and into cabinet.

You will undoubtedly stand a better chance if you are male, sorry ladies.

Your name had best be something traditional and regal like William, Henry or Robert. It also doesn't matter whether you are the eldest or youngest child in your family, or somewhere in between.

However, in today's party political structure you need to be popular firstly within your own party so you will become leader, but also with the electorate and then the world is your oyster my son, or daughter.

1With a break between each term.2Or rather the small flat at the top of the building, there not actually being a key hole in the front door of the Prime Ministerial residence in Downing Street, London.3Currently Queen Elizabeth II.4In the elections of February and October 1974 Ted Heath was first called upon to form a government. Only when he could not command a majority was Harold Wilson called to form a government.5John Russell had become Earl Russell in time for his second term from 1865-66. Benjamin Disreali was created Earl of Beaconsfield in 1876 during his second tenure. Sir Alec Douglas-Home had renounced his title as 14th Earl of Home to become Prime Minister in 1963.6We are not sure quite when in April Walpole was appointed First Lord of the Treasury by George I.7Two of whom also ruled over England.8Pitt the Elder9Important position in aristocratic families as this was the spare for the heir.10Assumed to have been privately educated.11At the time he studied at Mason College, later part of Birmingham University.12Evening Classes.13While this is still the minimum age at which anyone can become a Member of Parliament the Electoral Commission are currently considered bring this age down to 18 in line with the voting age. In Scotland the Local Governance Bill (2004) has been passed doing this for Local Councillors in Scotland14Often the sons of peers who inherited the title and never actually had to find other employment than on their father's estates.15Often these are the sons of politicians who gained a seat upon graduation from university.16To be fair Heath left University as World War II broke out and was elected to Parliament upon it's conclusion.17Edited his Uncle Earl Chatham's Letters18McMillian accepted a life peerage twenty years after he resigned from Parliament in 1984.19Was created Earl of Avon in 1961.20He resigned to assume command of the Army in the Iberian Wars. He was Commander in Chief when he became PM and had to resign his military position.21Not strictly a cabinet post but a rarity to be held before being Prime Minister22He was the First Labour PM; his opposition the World War I led to him not holding a post in Lloyd George's coalition war government.23However, for the remainder of this Parliament and at least into the start of the next that should continue to come down.

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