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A546231 -Weather forecast from a small island

Post 1

gaston

http://www.bbc.co.uk/h2g2/guide/A546231



Weather forecast from a small island.

"This is South Sea island Channel One's Cynthia. Hi there.
I regret due to circumstances beyond our control I am unable to give you the weather forecast tonight. I would like to take the opportunity time now allows me on this slot to address certain of you who feel the need to constantly complain and rail against the information I give. I protest in the strongest terms at some of the letters sent here. They contain very hurtful remarks about my appearance and even insinuate that I'm not a qualified meteorologist.

I can do nothing about my physical make-up and if God has chosen to endow me with a sensational hourglass figure then I simply say I am grateful. As to the clothes I wear and the way I wear them this is absolutely out of my control as it is determined by our sponsors, Maison de Haute Couture. Some of you say that they are too tight and hug my figure, others complain that I'm deliberately sexy and provocative making it difficult for you to concentrate on the essentials of the forecast, and yet more say that they think they promise more than I can ever deliver. I'll have you know that I am a married woman and as such feel a solidarity with all others in the same situation. I am well aware that men can be stimulated to make excessive demands on us and so I keep my body movements to the absolute minimum required to properly present the charts. I would remind these letter writers that without our sponsors everybody would have to pay more to subsidise the very expensive research needed for the preparation of each weather bulletin.

I am a fully qualified meteorologist, a woman can be you know, but you have to bear in mind that the actual weather is beyond my control and the fact that some of you may have a barbecue planned for a time when I am predicting rain and high winds is therefore in no way my fault. Similarly the long spell of drought which we are presently experiencing is a natural phenomenon and it serves no purpose writing to my employer to suggest that I would be better off doing a rain dance instead of repeating the same story about dry weather every night. We have come a long way since the days when rainmakers held sway. I am a scientist not a witchdoctor, which does not prevent me however from being able to do quite a neat little Limbo.

When the forecast is sometimes incorrect you have to take into account that weather predicting is not an exact science and is at best the sum total of diligently recorded statistics analysed in the present with a view to formulating a future scenario. If you imagine going to a casino and recording all the numbers that come up twenty four hours out of twenty four for a period of two years and process these through the most sophisticated of computers and then foretell all those that will come up over a given twelve hour period, you will have some idea of the enormity of the task involved in meteorology. That is not to say that the predictions we give you here are unreliable, far from it, they are mostly correct as indeed many people do devise systems which they successfully use to beat the table in casinos.

We have to beware however of what we call the "zero factor". This is the number nought which forms the thirty seventh number on a roulette wheel and throws all our calculations to the winds when it appears. There isn't the slightest degree of predictability about its popping up, it may not appear for three days and then it might come ten times in one hour. The very fact that it exists is the reason why over a given period of time the house is always the winner when playing the wheel of fortune. Unfortunately this " zero factor" exists too in weather science.

I asked you yesterday evening to be patient a little longer with the dry period saying that there were certain indications that by the weekend we could expect some rain.
You now know that forecast of yesterday evening was a little understated as it, and the reality of today were not quite the same thing.
A hurricane arrived literally out of the blue to devastate our little island. Thousands of people were driven from homes now lying in ruins, crops have been destroyed, old people and farm animals carried away by the swirling waters, firemen and police unaccounted for, barbecues and family get-togethers cancelled.

I am a little embarrassed not to have anticipated this catastrophe but if you examine in depth my forecast of last evening you will note that I spoke of the end of the dry period being in sight. What has happened perfectly defines the "zero factor" I've been telling you about, but the positive side is that the drought is now but a bad memory.

Coming back to the question of my inability to bring you a forecast this evening. There is a perfectly logical reason. We here are totally dependent on readings sent to us from meteorological instruments stationed aboard a small ship permanently moored one nautical mile offshore. Unfortunately this ship has now disappeared and our search for it is being seriously hampered by the atrocious weather. We are doing everything possible, given the prevailing conditions, to locate it.

As to whether we bring you the weather tomorrow night, well that now depends on the intervening weather. Goodnight .


A546231 -Weather forecast from a small island

Post 2

a girl called Ben

This is delightful, and I can see her - blonde, wearing a skimpy dress in an early-sixties panty-girdle kind of way?

The thought of Michael Fish doing a neat little limbo is wonderful too.

Were you in the UK when he promised there would be no hurricane in 87? As true as Bush Sr's promise of no more taxes. I am not sure why everyone was so outraged. It is not as if they were going to go outside and bring in their trees overnight for safety, is it.

Anyway I loved it.

Ben


A546231 -Weather forecast from a small island

Post 3

Martin Harper

smiley - laugh - absolutely hilarious - thanks very much for a good chuckle! The outraged expression of a professional being asked to do a rain dance... smiley - rofl


A546231 -Weather forecast from a small island

Post 4

gaston

Hello Ben,
I'm happy that you liked the piece. I did in fact have Michael Fish in mind. I remember well having been in Edinburgh on that fateful night and waiting the whole of the following day at its airport while things were sorted out at Heathrow. We had to spend two hours sitting in the plane before take-off because there wasn't enough room in the terminal building for all the delayed passengers. Michael went one step further than my forecaster, he positively and publicly pooh-hooed a warnig from the French that exceptional weather was approaching the south of England.
I hope that you have a happy and peaceful New Year.
Best regards
Gaston

Hello Lucinda,
It's nice to hear from you and I'm glad you got a chuckle or two from my piece. It's great for me to get reaction as I'm trying to develop a writer's wings. The landing strip at AWW is very welcoming -especially after I crash-landed a couple of times trying to reach the Peer Review airport.
Hope to hear from you again,
Gaston


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Post 5

h2g2 auto-messages

Editorial Note: This conversation has been moved from 'The Alternative Writing Workshop' to 'Who am I?'.

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