h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

'War on terror' loses clear direction

By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News website



Bush in Salt Lake City: war must be won

In the five years since 9/11, a clear-cut and well-supported "war on terror" declared by President Bush has become confused and divisive.

Whereas Le Monde declared the day after 9/11: "We are all Americans now", a placard at a demonstration in London recently read: "We are all Hezbollah now".

American policy has had successes. The quick war in Afghanistan after 9/11 (now flaring up again in the south) toppled the Taleban and has denied al-Qaeda its training bases, which were important to it (base is what the word Qaeda means).

Al-Qaeda has lost much of its leadership. It has not toppled governments as it had hoped. Western forces have not left the Middle East, and in particular the government of Saudi Arabia, guardian of Mecca, which is probably Osama Bin Laden's ultimate target, stands.

Yet Western and other publics are left in fear, and rightly so. Al-Qaeda is no invention. Its impact - or that of its sympathisers - was seen not only in New York and Washington but in Bali, Madrid, London, Morocco, Istanbul and elsewhere.


The power of fear

Fear is a powerful motivating factor. Fear after 9/11 led to the Bush doctrine of the pre-emptive strike.

But this doctrine has not been endorsed by all.

Doubts, divisions and defections have developed among American allies. For many around the world, sympathy for the United States has changed into suspicion and, for some, even into hatred. The prisons at Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib, the treatment of prisoners, secret prisons and rendition flights all added to this feeling.

The changes just announced by President Bush - acknowledging and emptying the secret camps and other moves - might answer some criticism but not all and their overall effect remains to be seen.

Pessimism about Western tactics

Professor Michael Clarke of King's College, London, is gloomy in the short term at least.

"If I was Osama Bin Laden sitting in my cave, I would think I was winning," he said.

"I would consider that I am still at large, I have a global movement, I strike a chord with young Muslims everywhere, I am an inspiration not a planner and I have lured the US into wars in Afghanistan and Iraq of my choosing and of my way of fighting."

He added: "Nor is the West countering the easy narrative offered by the jihadis. They are, and I agree with the Bush language on this, Islamic fascists, but we are not engaging enough in the war of ideas and are instead dwelling on their actions. They can counter that by dwelling on ours, in a game of moral equivalence."

Iraq hangs like a shadow

The shadow of Iraq hangs over American policy and the world's view of it.

The problem is that many governments and peoples do not see Iraq as part of the answer to terror. They see it as part of the cause. They therefore want to distance themselves from American policy.

Not that al-Qaeda's terrorism was prompted by the Iraq invasion. The 11 September attacks preceded Iraq and recently, German trains were the target of an attempted attack even though Germany opposed the invasion.

But Iraq has probably been the greatest single factor in producing the confusion that is now evident. Washington declares that Iraq must be won or the war on terror will be lost. Opponents say it has made things worse, though many opponents add that now it must be won.


Iraq hangs like shadow over war on terror

A difficulty for the Bush administration is that it argued differently when the invasion was announced. Then, it was about weapons of mass destruction.


Terrorism floated only in the background as a nightmare in which a rogue state might give some terrorist nuclear weapons.

Now, Iraq has been declared the frontline which has to be held or it will move to the streets of America.

Language changes to reflect policy shifts

The extent to which Iraq has influenced events can be seen by looking at the language used by President Bush before and after the invasion.

On 31 August this year he told the American Legion in Salt Lake City: "This war will be long... but it's a war we must wage, and a war we will win...The war we fight today is more than a military conflict; it is the decisive ideological struggle of the 21st Century."

For many around the world, sympathy for the United States has changed into suspicion and, for some, even into hatred



Send us your views

His use of the future tense in "We will win" contrasts with what he said before the invasion. On 26 February 2003, he declared in a speech in Washington: "We have arrested, or otherwise dealt with, many key commanders of al-Qaeda. Across the world, we are hunting down the killers one by one. We are winning."

The change of tense shows how far any expectation of victory has been put off.



No settled narrative


It is perhaps not unlike the debate over South Vietnam. That war, too, was declared necessary for victory in the other long war, the Cold War. In those days, it was said that if South Vietnam went, the whole of South East Asia would go too, in a fall of the dominoes.

And nor has Washington been effective in solving another motivating factor for the jihadis - the Israel-Palestine conflict. Its portrayal of Israel as a victim in the war on terror sits uneasily with, say, the Europeans, who generally see the dispute as territorial not ideological and therefore amenable to a compromise.

There is therefore no agreed and clear narrative for the "war on terror".

Optimism about Western values

Professor Clarke is more optimistic in the long term.

"It will get worse before it gets better but I expect western policy to win eventually because it offers a superior, political, moral and economic model. However we have not made things easy for ourselves by mistakes, first in Afghanistan by allowing Taleban and al-Qaeda leaders to escape and then on a grand scale in make a strategic mistake by invading Iraq.

"This is probably going to take a generation to resolve, until the angry young jihadis turn into tired old men, as the Marxist-Leninists did."


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5319522.stm

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/558B3888-D3B1-4F85-B679-1E0A88E77B91.htm

Yipde do... the sea blockade has been lifted.

W

Egypt makes new Middle East peace proposal


Monday 11 September 2006


Mubarak and King Abdullah met to discuss the proposal

Egypt has proposed a new approach to securing peace in the Middle East in a deal which would set the borders and other details of a Palestinian state before talks on how to turn the plan into reality.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/23C1221A-D053-4097-8392-129D23C0E9C4.htm

Oh, and Abbas has agreed to meet with Olmert

Let's be done with this - it is time and we are all weary.

Oooops...

Thousands protest Blair's Beirut visit


Monday 11 September 2006, 13:57 Makka Time, 10:57 GMT


Blair's perceived support of Israel has angered many Lebanese



Related:
Lebanese cleric says Blair unwelcome
Blair says he will quit within a year



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About 2,000 Lebanese have protested against British prime minister Tony Blair's visit to Beirut, accusing him of backing Israel's war with Hezbollah.



Several cabinet ministers also refused to meet Blair as he held talks with his Lebanese counterpart, Fuad Siniora.

One demonstrator interupted a press conference being held by the two leaders, holding up a banner in front of the pair before she was bundled away by security guards.

Many Lebanese have been angered by Blair's refusal to call for an early ceasefire during the month-long conflict.

"Beirut is free, Blair out," chanted the protesters. Some carried placards reading "In the name of the Lebanese people: Thank you for destroying our homes, neighbourhoods and memories."

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/FDC9A198-EC18-42F2-A9EB-4B5F2D8AF8A6.htm

Well if that anger can be chanelled into a new and strong army for the whole of Lebanon, and truly represent the elected government, without any outside help, (unlike Hezbollah), all well and good. We'll see!

Cor There's a turnabout of affairs!


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5339834.stm


The US has thanked Syria for foiling an attack on its embassy in Damascus.

and apparently solving Lebanon's problems is a doddle

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=17&article_id=75338

Blimey

Qatar is to start paying compensation to residents of four Southern villages whose homes were partially or completely damaged by the end of this week, Qatari engineer Mohammad Rashid al-Ali announced on Sunday. Speaking during a press conference at Beirut's Phoenicia InterContinental Hotel, Ali said that as for the payment mechanism and sums of money to be given to those who suffered damage, Qatar "has prepared charts with the names of the beneficiaries and Qatar will hand out the money in accordance with the payment scale the Lebanese government has set."

.../

Qatar has pledged the complete reconstruction of the heavily hit towns of Aita al-Shaab, Ainata, Khiam and Bint Jbeil - including the rehabilitation of all infrastructure and public buildings in the four towns, the rehabilitation of all damaged religious buildings, and the rehabilitation of all private and public schools.

.../

Qatar has also pledged to rehabilitate damaged schools in the Southern towns of Kfar Shouba, Yarine, and Marwahin.

"The reconstruction started with the damaged schools ... We started with the lightly damaged buildings and there are Qatari charities that will provide all the books, equipment and furniture to the schools after we finish reconstructing them," Ali said.

.../


http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=75532

Just wondering how you feel about Nasrallah's latest - he wants rid of Siniora. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5370038.stm

Melli

Hello Melli,

I don't know how 'au fait' you are with Lebanese politics. There are a few 'absolutes', if you like, that you need to know before anything even begins to make sense:

First of all, Lebanon has over 17 different religious/ethnic communities in a population of less than 4 million. We have several hundred thousand Armenians and a further eighth of the population is made up of Palestinian refugee camps (set up by the UN in 1948). The Shia (represented mostly by HizbAllah) are concentrated along the Israeli border and have been historically the politically downtrodden / economically ignored. The government of Lebanon has a Catholic President, Sunni Prime Minister and Shia Head of Parliament. In other words, this is about as pluralistic a society as you are ever going to find, laden with baggage, agendas, chips on shoulders and elephantine memories.

Sheikh Nasrallah has a Catholic on his team: ex-PM Michel Aoun who recently retuned from exile. He wants Aoun in power. This is the first time the Shia have been in a position to raise their voices in Lebanon politics. They are going to release every frustration built up over centuries.

I personally think that if they are 'in' power, they will calm down. I very much fear that I will then no longer have a comfortable place in ly Lebanon. An Islamic republic is one of the things they are aiming for... Then again, the tables will have turned, the cycle revolves and time evolves. Their turn has come.

As for the prospect of Middle East peace, my belief is that until Israel allows right of return and returns to 1967 borders, Hamas will not concede and recognise them. In the long term, Israel cannot win this. Over decades they have held the Palestinians down economically (I am not talking about other issues, just poverty now) - and the poor reproduce more. Economic truth. Over years what happens? Gaza is now the most densely populated spot place on earth. What to do with all these people?

I firmly believe that what goes around comes around and much as it pains me as a Lebanese Catholic, I have to concede that 'my people' have taken advantage of 'their people' and that is not right.

The pendulum will swing widely beofre finding equilibrium.

*shrug*

All that I know about Lebanese politics, I've read on your site (don't worry, I'm not a true stalker, I've only been on hootoo a handful of times this year). I'm just always impressed by your clear reporting style, and wanted to ask your opinion on that matter.

I'm Jewish, ex-from London, and so I see things a little differently from you. In the interest of a wider spectrum of opinions I look for lots of different opinions (especially since I'm fairly isolated from other Jews where I live). I didn't know about the numbers of refugees in Lebanon until I read your post in August, so thank you.

I hope that you never feel unwelcomed there, that there is always a comfortable 'home' for you, and that neither of us are affected personally by the pendulum. It is a mature observation that the cycle revolves and the ages pass, and so on (along the lines of "The Universe is big. Very big..." and so on). It's a lot harder to live through it, than to recognise it objectively, and I hope you and I never have to.

Melli

Absolutely, Melli, we all have different angles and that is as it should be. I have been very fortunate on hootoo - among many good friends I have made here are two especially special women, both Jewish, one in Israel and one in NY. They have allowed me to grow also. Dialogue is a fertiliser for the mind and soul

You are welcome on any thread on my PS you find interesting, thanks for popping up!

W

Oh .... pthluh! (to borrow a great expression from a friend)

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/81A8D91D-D640-4883-B121-CD0FA10E2BE8.htm

No double standards there then


Nations pushing for a resolution labelling Israel's nuclear capabilities a threat on the final day of the International Atomic Energy Agency's annual meeting have been defeated.

The draft resolution, which also called upon Israel to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, was backed by 15 Arab countries, along with Cuba, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia and Venezuela.

But Canada sponsored a 45-29 "no action" ballot on Friday that prevented member states from voting on the motion.

Among those supporting the effort to block the vote were the United States, Israel, France, Germany, Britain and Finland, which was at the conference on behalf of the European Union.

Nineteen countries, including Russia and India, abstained.

... and a pthluh, again

... and thus it begins again...


Tens of thousands of Lebanese have attended an annual mass to commemorate Christian fighters killed in the 1975-90 civil war and to hear a speech by the Lebanese Forces party leader, Samir Geagea

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/5C347272-3CA0-4B2C-A5D9-086B9232871A.htm

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/7C15AF54-2E42-497F-A0BF-6CEA43FFC21D.htm



Siniora told the parliament that the Arab and Muslim worlds were at a crossroads that could either lead to peace or further extremism.

He said: "Delay in finding solutions is not going to keep things as is.

"The situation is going to get more and more complicated. The way to deal with it is to go to the root causes."

He said that a fair implementation of the UN Security Council resolution which ended the Israel-Hezbollah war and a resumption of talks to create a viable Palestinian state were needed.

He later told reporters: "The EU has a very important role. Specifically the EU can and must now put pressure on the United States to play a more constructive role, which they have failed to do so far.

"It is about confidence, the people of our region have confidence in Europe and simply do not in the United States."



/...

Israel's military chief of staff said on Wednesday that disputes over how the Lebanese army and the UN peacekeepers will deal with Hezbollah fighters is holding up the troop withdrawal.

But Siniora said that the disarmament of Hezbollah could only be dealt with after Israeli withdrawal and he told a news briefing that once Israel has fully withdrawn, "there won't be any valid argument then for the continuation of weapons in the hands of Hezbollah".

He said that ensuring Lebanese territory was fully under Lebanese control would empower moderates and "pull the rug from beneath the feet of the extremists".

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/9CD1E5D2-A8E7-4EA7-9334-E4593575B233.htm

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UN tells of Israeli border violation


Friday 29 September 2006


A Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire came into effect six weeks ago


Israel has violated the UN-drawn border it shares with Lebanon, the spokesman for the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon says.



The spokesman would not provide details about the violation, but an Associated Press photographer who witnessed Thursday's incident said an Israeli armoured vehicle and two jeeps drove through the border fence and tried to penetrate further into Lebanese territory when UN French peacekeepers blocked their path.

The incident came six weeks after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah fighters went into effect in the region, and happened near the Lebanese border village of Marwaheen.

UNIFIL wields authority to challenge gunmen, but Israelis off-limits


Compiled by Daily Star staff
Saturday, September 30, 2006


UN sources said Friday the strengthened international peacekeeping force in South Lebanon has the authority to arrest gunmen or even open fire on them. A copy of the rules of engagement, marked "restricted" but to which AFP had access, allows for "use of force beyond self-defense to ensure that UNIFIL's area of operations is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind."

It applies to zones without an Israeli presence, amounting to 95 percent of the area that UNIFIL is to deploy and patrol South of the Litani River, but not to the 10 zones along the border still occupied by Israeli troops.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=75816

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2DCD096B-88EA-4FFE-B6CF-BFB06F462789.htm

UN: Israel pullout still incomplete

Sunday 01 October 2006

The Israeli army has withdrawn its troops from the south of Lebanon except for one divided border village north of the Blue Line separating the two countries, UN peacekeepers say.

Major-General Alain Pellegrini, the commander of UN Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) said on Sunday the Israeli army had withdrawn its troops from the south, except from the area around the village of Ghajar.

"I expect that they will leave this area in the course of the week thus completing the withdrawal in line with the [UN] Resolution 1701," he said.

Siniora addresses the MEPs

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2006/09/siniora_tackle.php

The article covers his address to the MEPs, their response and his concluding response which I have copied below:

Siniora's response to debate

Responding to the debate, Mr Siniora said that during the past decades, most of the attempts made to deal with incidents, events or problems concentrated on symptoms not core causes of problem. That is why the problems stayed and deteriorated and "went in unexpected proportions."

He said the right way was to deal with root causes. "Once this is handled properly, we can direct attention to rebuilding societies and economies in the right manner. The Arab and Muslim world is at a crossroads. It can move to real problem solving and real peace recognising all states including Israel and helping all moderates against the cause of extremists [...] Or there is the other direction of further desperation and fanaticism. Desperate people often commit desperate acts"

He said he believed strongly that there could not be a state within a state: "We have to do our part of the duty but Lebanon must be helped. We must go on, through negotiation and dialogue with all groups including Hezbollah. All groups represented in government including Hezbollah have endorsed a seven point plan that states clearly that weapons are only for the state. Lebanon must be helped to make that important step. This is the key to take us to where state can prevail over all our territories. Some real effort is needed on the Shebaa farms. We need to trigger this important step to take us to where state has monopoly of forces all over Lebanon. It would be a step to real peace in region, and recognition of all, including for the state of Israel, and its continuation and prosperity."

Yay!
Pro-Syrian Lahoud is spurned by Francophonie...

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2006/09/lebanons_presid_1.php


****************
Beirut- Lebanese President Emile Lahoud has been excluded from a summit of French-speaking nations in Romania.



The move came after a UN report on the 2005 murder of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri implicated Syria and Lebanon, who deny allegations of involvement.

Addressing the 63-member group, French President Jacques Chirac said the move was "in keeping with UN decisions".

The pro-Syrian president accused Chirac of being responsible for excluding him from the summit.

..../

Romanian President Traian Basescu, speaking in the capital Bucharest, said he had made the decision not to invite the Lebanese president to the summit known as Francophonie.

"I think it was correct given the suspicions in the [UN] report about the death of the former premier Hariri," Basescu said.


.../

Lahoud is the most politically isolated president Lebanon has ever had. Most of the western officials that visited Lebanon following the assassination of former PM Hariri have ignored Lahoud and declined to meet with him.
Mehlis in his report established a link by one of the suspects and president Lahoud.

The United Nations investigators questioned Lebanese President Emile Lahoud on November 11 for six hours as part of their inquiry into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.

All the four generals that reported to president Lahoud on security matters are now in jail as suspects in the Hariri assassination pending trial.

Syrian president Bashar el assad during his last meeting with Hariri in Damascus threatened to destroy Lebanon if lahoud's term was not extended and referred to Lahoud as " my personal representative in Lebanon".

This perhaps explains why Lahoud has been marginalized and totally ignored.

.../
**********