h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

With bombing of the mosque yesterday, s itlikely that Iraq willl descend into civil war? And if the two main Islamic groups start fighting each other on a larger scale, will it ease the coalition's problems viz-a-viz disengagement?

Novo

The Sunnis have broken off talks about being a part of the government because of this horrendous act and the response to it. It doesn't look good.

It was such a blatant attempt to force a wedge between the two groups I'm surprised more people didn't see it like that over there.



Ste

"And if the two main Islamic groups start fighting each other on a larger scale, will it ease the coalition's problems viz-a-viz disengagement?"

Quite what they could usefully do in the midst of civil war escapes me. Vietnam analogies would suddenly become a lot more credible if the troops stayed and tried to support the Government, only there isn't government with public backing, certainly not by the militias.

"It was such a blatant attempt to force a wedge between the two groups I'm surprised more people didn't see it like that over there."

These people believe in a god and carry deep seated religious and ethnic hatreds. They're too angry to act in constructive manner.

Will Iraq implode? Oh, yes!

But it probably won't be significantly worse for the average Iraqi in her everyday life, than it is now.

The problem is that the Americans don't have and never have had, an exit strategy.

I stronly disagree. I think Iraq will explode, causing problems for all the neighboring countries.

"
With bombing of the mosque yesterday, s itlikely that Iraq willl descend into civil war?"

I think "civil war" is a misleading term here since countries that descend into civil war tend to do so because of the formation of separate armed-forces capable of waging war and that's not happening here. What there *is* a danger of is an explosion in sectarian violence and terrorism and that's a possibility.

The bombing of a Shi'ite mosque was an open provocation and the Shi'ite extremists have responded in kind. Fortunately, Shi'ite religious leaders are calling for calm (few Iraqis actually want sectarian violence and most of the country is relatively peaceful). The Sunnis have the most to gain from violence - they are outnumbered in the Iraqi parliament and a stable Iraq would benefit their Shi'ite rivals more than them. If they can provolk the Shi'ites into a sectarian conflict then they can disrupt the functioning of the government and the Shi'ites would score an own goal.

"It was such a blatant attempt to force a wedge between the two groups I'm surprised more people didn't see it like that over there."

Of course it was, but the mosque bombing was such an affront that the Sunni extremists *knew* there would be a response. It all depends on whether the Shi'ite religious leaders can successfully keep the peace and whether the Shi'ites can be persuaded that violent response is what the Sunni extremists *want* and that they are being used.

"Vietnam analogies would suddenly become a lot more credible if the troops stayed and tried to support the Government, only there isn't government with public backing, certainly not by the militias."

The government *does* have public backing, it was voted-in in an election (which is why the Vietnam analogy doesn't work - the Americans did not encourage democracy there and ultimately ensured that South Vietnam had no popular support) and the militias represent a small minority of extremist opinion.

BBC World Service news *right now* 13.09 our time, 12.00 midnight GMT (I think) says "130 killed in riots after the bombing of the shrine. A night-time curfew will be extended into day time".

I hope they do succeed in containing the violence, but I don't hold out much hope.

<>

And let's pray they get it!

Zagreb, do you really believe that the current Iraqi government has popular backing and is not just an American puppet one? From what I heard on the World service at the time of the election, most of the people interviewed had no faith in a government being genuinely independent of American control.

Well, there are probably a lot of guns and bombs around Iraq still, but I'm going to guess that no, it isn't going to explode quite yet.

Surely, the *average* Sunni would have a fair bit to lose if the end-result of violence was a breakup of the couintry, since the oil isn't in their area.

I doubt they imagine a scenario of breakup...more like with the American's gone, they'd retake the whole thing (at the very least).

My main concern is that since the Middle Eastern States, as presently "constructed" are artificial impositions of borders , in essentially recent times, there is a danger that the various "interest groups" be they religious, ethnic ( tribal) or historic, may feel compelled to redraw the maps to suit themselves.

From the armchair comfort of the UK I can see parallels with The Balkan States, artificially pushed into being 'Yugoslavia' , from which they have now split, and with the break-up of The Soviet Union into it's constituent parts, particularly in the south.

We have no comparable recent history. Our own Baronial and Monarchic wars ( Oh and Oliver Cromwell too ) are long in the past, and we have had time to settle down to become the nation that we are.

I don't believe that "imposing" a country , or an identity on people will ever work, except perhaps by example, and certainly not by force. If any group can see the merit of tolerance and co-operation to achieve a mutually beneficial aim, they may take is Q E D , and follow suit. In this context I mean the people as a whole and not just leaders with their own agendas.

Novo

I haven't ignored Israel and Palestine as an example, but that's a whole argument in itself and a little 'off topic' maybe.

Novo

Zagreb, an awful lot of Iraqis turned out to vote on the constitution too. They didn't support but feared that any new one put before them would be even worse and that the time taken to come up with it would only allow the violence to get worse.
I don't think the government does have a real power base of support. Have they even decided who is going to be in the governemnt yet? eh?


Novo, we do have sectarian violence/civil war in the UK, in Northern Ireland. We have communities that are policed by groups connected to IRA rather than local law enforcemnet. People are still killed because they are the wrong religion or ethnicity.

We may not have quite such visible militia paading down the streets but we do have a long messy piece of history still being layed out because people have not wish to let go of the past and even less confidence in democatic process [although on the surface that's changing over the past decade].

I am with you there on the example of Northern Ireland, and I accept that it isn't settled yet. But I didn't include it in my last post - partly beause it is fragile , and partly because it demonstrates my argument - in that the IRA have tried to create (re-create?) a united island called Ireland (Eire if you prefer) by using violence.

It hasn't worked. Now they are trying the democratic route. It might still take years , but if the majority of those on the island WANT to become part of a whole, they will vote for it - ultimately

Novo

The IRA have had to modify their behavior because the Irish Republic doesn't what to take on the six counties in such a 'lawless' place, they don't want their to be communities that answer to local IRA affiliated groups and not the police.

Does Iran have the same concerns about lawless Shia territory? If the Militia take their inspiration from the revolution there or even weapons and funds?

Will Iraq implode? Yes. Maybe not today, tomorrow in in the next year - but sooner or later, the divisions will see one victor. Which one? No idea, but my money is not on the Sunni's.............

Morning Custard Pie

Given that you are right - and I suspect you are, have 'we' wasted wasted billions of £'s / $'s and tens of thousands of lives to no purpose? Rhetorical question really, since the answer is self evident.?

Question
Who or what is to blame for this horrendous debacle?

Novo