h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

I've been prodding at the Windows 8 Developer Preview and two things come initially to mind. The first is that Microsoft are betting a lot with this, it's a huge leap into combining touch screen/mobile interfaces with the desktop operating system. And I like it. The second thing that I can't help but think about is, are we going to start seeing the death of the internet?

Back in 1997, with the release of IE4 in Windows 95, Microsoft released something called Active desktop. This basically turned the computer's desktop background into a web browser. You could configure it to download into your desktop websites that you liked or read a lot. Thing is, this was still in the days of dial up and most people didn't use the internet much.

Later on, Microsoft dropped this feature. But it was replaced, in a way, in both Apple's OSX and Microsoft Vista with Widgets and Gadgets respectively. Small "programs" written in html and javascript, and packaged to run on the desktop. Using AJAX these were able to hook into remote web servers and download dynamic content to the user's desktop.

But they were still toys, things that sat in the background and rarely used.

It seemed like this ability in desktops was going to die out, until the iPhone woke everyone up to the concept of apps. Apple did not invent apps, they just had the best marketing for them. All of a sudden people realised that programs didn't have to be big, bulky, expensive things. They could be small, quick and quite often free. You just have to look at the success of the Appstore to see how popular they've become. But they needed professional programmers to build (high quality) apps, and each platform needed to be developed in a different language.

Then came PhoneGap. The guys there developed a system that allowed website developers to take their knowledge and experience of html and javascript, and use it to build apps that ran natively on the phone. A bit like the Widgets and Gadgets that came before them. But this time around there was a waiting audience that already knew about these things, and where to find them.

And now we have iOS in Lion, and Windows8. Both are fully fledged desktop operating systems that allow developers to build apps. Although Windows8 allows, even encourages developers to build directly in html and javascript without the need for a system like PhoneGap. We've come back full circle in a way, you can now build apps like websites, and have them integrated with the desktop and operating system.

Which brings us back to how could this potentially kill off the internet?

There's two things I think people need to acknowledge about the internet. The first is that sites are split very much into either being big commercial sites, or being ones that rely on advertising. There is a third section, vanity sites. Big commercial sites are those like Facebook, but also like Tescos. They make money directly through you using their site. Sites that rely on advertising either have deals in place with sponsors or use Google's AdSense. Vanity sites don't generally care about making money, they're just after people reading them. Most blogs fit into that category. But a massive surge into desktop apps could prevent sites from gaining revenue through advertising. If for example Facebook were to release each modular element of their site as a standalone, yet integrated app for the new Windows8 start menu, they'd be making sure that each time someone clicked on "Start" they'd get a page full of Facebook apps. Each one performing a small, separate role but together providing the full Facebook experience integrated into the desktop. What if more of the big commercial sites did this? Traffic to the internet as we know it now could plummet. Why open your web browser and surf for a while if everything you actually use it for is already there waiting for you?

It would be possible to put advertising into the desktop based apps in the same way that you currently get advertising in mobile phone apps. This could provide the finance to support the infrastructure of the websites (domain name, hosting, etc) but whilst people will put up with ads in apps, with a fair amount of grumbling, I don't think they'll put up with them integrated into their Start menu. I know I certainly don't want to see adverts for the latest albums from bands I've never even heard of each time I go to open a program.

So those websites that rely on advertising could suffer, and fold. And vanity cause websites? If the number of people actually using the internet as they do now starts to decline, then there's going to be even less people visiting those sites or reading those blogs.

The internet as we know it could become a ghost town, like Google Wave, or mySpace, or Geocities, or the countless other websites that have either fallen and folded, or hang on denying the obvious.

Wired had a big discussion on this last year.

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_webrip/all/1

I really wouldn't want to have to rely on the tiny screen of a smart phone for my internet/whatever you call it. I guess I'd go back to reading real books if I had to do that, so I hope it won't happen during my life time.

No one's saying everything will go through your smart phones. Tablets and netbooks are a middle ground between phones and traditional desktops/laptops. What's being argued is whether you'll access the web through a browser or rely on apps to directly link you to services and info on the internet.

I don't personally think the browser is going away. It may play a smaller role, but it still serves its purpose.

Personally, I wouldn't want to join a cloud, for example - and this sounds like the same principle, no?

Noodles!

I'm only just learning how to use t'internet. Anything else would confuse me

They're related, yes. Cloud computing makes me a bit nervous even as I venture into it (Google, Evernote and other things). Cloud computing is more about being device independent. I can reach my information from my phone, my tablet, my laptop, work computers or a public computer. That's handy, of course, but it also means I'm not in possession or control of my info.

That's quite a good article in Wired.

I think that people in general need to understand the distinction between the terms "web" and "internet".

The Web is the huge collection of web sites out there.

The Internet is where it is.


The internet will survive, it's going to power a lot of things. But I think that as the web itself starts to decline the internet will end up being a bit like a ghost town.

I'm not sure I get what you see as the internet.

The internet is hardly becoming a ghost town. The web might.
The internet is just the infrastructure all this is built on. The internet doesn't care what data is passed along it or stored on it any more than the railways care about sleeper cars or "sport trains". The internet is growing constantly, exponentially expanding with every server and high speed connection added to it.

You missed out at least one major (as far as I'm concerned), variety of web-site, or information carried on the web, that of information, often half way between commercial and vanity, things like biomed, medline, big journal collections (springer and err biomed net), plus very specific information to do with educational instutions, and suchlike... Some of which, Is I guess a bit closer to h the web as it was, nearer its real appearance, it was only accademic types really using it back when I started, and then suddenly it just began, and before long everyone*had an
Email address, and was able to use their dialup (whilst I was on the quick jannet connections at Uni )
Also, its only recently or relatively recently we've began getting large number sof internet\/web users, across the socio-economic scale, and across the range of ages and experiences; its long ago stopped being the reserve of bright young things beavering away in their vast subteranian research departments hidden underneath university compases...
I don't think a lot of the newer (though often older), users will necessarily want or have a desire for change... heck I'm still on XP as it works... and haven't found a over-welking essential reason or need to move over to 7...

As to the cloud thing... no thanks... I've got access to all my files and documents, so long as I leave my PC on at home, as I can just network to it remotely... Although, saying which, they're allready pretty much duplicated from the PC onto the netbook partly for backup porpoises.

I understand about how the internet is a conduit, i think my original title might be a bit misleading.

thing is though, there's been a lot of money ploughed into the infrastructure of the internet, and I'm not so sure a reduction in web use will support that. Internet use will continue to grow, for a while at least, but the way we use the web is changing and I'm not so sure that this will be financially viable.