h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

A long and interesting analysis Cass. But what, if anything, does it tell us about the present/coming economic storm and how we should respond to it.
Just as a prompt, Ireland has a system of national wage negotiations not unlike the old "social contract" of '70's Britain. The latest round is currently underway and, from the comments already made on all 3 sides (Gov't, Employers, Unions) there seems to be a willingness to protect the lowest paid and the unwaged, if necessary at the expense of the rest if necessary in the present climate. This is in a country were earnings generally are significantly higher than in Britain.
Nor do you (or Galbraith?) have much to say about the role of "oil money" in the economic cycle. this was an important factor in the '70's and is becoming so again what with Russian and Arabian custodians of massive funds, both personal and communal, looking for places to invest.

Plotinlaois,

I would hope that the analysis would help people to form their own understanding of just why we are no longer able to produce effective team work- ( I listened to the first half of the Andorra match)
It seems to me that that there has been a dislocation or disassociation of existing economic, political and social activity associated with globalisation.( In football as in other team sports we have very successful clubs based upon our ability to buy-in what we cannot produce- players, coaches, managers. But the "national team" is still the bedrock of national pride; and we have become accustomed to shameful underachievement. Symptomatic)

As I argued in "Weathering" I believe that it was politically necessary to show that Capitalism could work for all mankind, as proponents of the Communist revolution had argued their solution would do.

But in spite of all of the creation of greater structures, the building blocks of the EU, the United Nations, and even to a degree the USA are the smaller entities that created social, economic and political coherence. And both Democratic and Republican Conventions have left no doubt that American solutions to American problems will involve the family, faith and community structures that first planted the New World.

But globalisation has allowed those dynamics and strengths to fall into decay.As you mention, one of the problems of the present situation is that there are funds that are just waiting for investment opportunities; and this is potentially as dangerously destabilising as Hurricane Gustav- a huge amount of unattached and unfocussed power just roaming around looking for a place to make an impact. Chelsea supporters did not mind whether or not their club's new owner was part of the Russian mafia or not. And Manchester City supporters are not worried about the inequalities of wealth distribution that has provided the funds for their own "sugar daddy". What counts is access to money, whatever way it comes.

But "man does not live by bread alone", not even that kind of bread. And there is a sense in which money only has power over us, if we accept its power. Kurt has just written about how his forefathers survived Louisianna Hurricanes back before all the conveniences that money could buy. Well! They were less reliant upon the systems that can fail in such circumstances, and just got on with rebuilding with their own labour and the things to hand.

We have survived as communities and societies; and I try to avoid postulating some new way, a solution: even though the weird birthday book that ties me with Lenin says that people born on "Our" birthday have a great ability to successfully create totally new and original systems. My solution is no solution. We need everyone to be working out solutions because the best one is usually the one that emerges "on the ground". This is what I find when I get around to do some DIY, however carefully I think about it beforehand; it is only when I am actually doing the job that I suddenly see the most simple and effective way to go about it.

And surely some of the most satisfying creative experiences come from being able to work collaboratively with people who you respect and who will tell you that what you are saying is plainly wrong; but in mutual respect the next day they will come back with their own ideas that build on yours adding what was missing.


This Galbraith piece, however, probably belongs to my own Grumpy Old Man period, when I felt "The Gathering Storm". I wrote it in 2005. But now that some kind of storm is upon us my Cassandra- side becomes redundant. The most recent thing that I have written is a piece entitled "Humanity and the Missing Link". At present it is still in script, and I don't know when I will have the time to type it up. The key word however is Humanity not science.

When I started on working out in detail "on paper" this second part of my thought-adventure almost ten years ago in I wrote a pamphlet called "The Rediscovery of Social Man"- perhaps I will post it.

Regards

Cass

Plotinlaois
It folows from what I said that I believe that Ireland must find solutions to Irish problems- and a solution is not something that works but something that is made to work.

But my "rugby test" gives me cause for concern and I raised this on the rugby site earlier in the season. I don't know whether you are a rugby man, but you may be aware that Irish rugby seems to be in similar condition to English football. At a club level Ireland is right up at the top level of European rugby; but in the RWC and the Six Nations they have disappointed. And one reason may be be in part responsible in both sports. Money and professionalism.

The current prosperity in Ireland has meant that many players who in the past would have had to make their living in England can now make their home in Ireland. And like most British professional rugby clubs the Irish teams are able to recruit top players from abroad. This should improve the levels of skill and the standards of play generally. But Irish rugby, like English football, had a special nature, reflecting Irelands particular legacy. But the game against England at Croke Park in 2007 was redolent with historical significance and was intended to "normalise" the situation. For Croke Park had been a "temple" kept exclusively for Gaelic sports.. Donal O'Callaghan got his hair cut. And the team - in sporting terms - "massacred and murdered" the English.. And then what happens next?

Interestingly I had two conversations this summer with people who had enjoyed fabulous holidays in Ireland in the last couple of years. And one told me that Dublin is the second most visited tourist city in the world. I can assure you that I was delighted for them and delighted for Ireland, and I expressed regret that (due particularly to my French connection) I had not yet had the opportunity to visit Ireland- for I have heard much to recommend it- not least from an ex-colleague who has a cottage and a sailing boat on the West Coast. But on both occasions- once on the ferry when I was talking to a couple from Holland, and once high up camping in the French Alps- I was told not to wait too long because Ireland is in the process of losing its soul and its character. It was quite uncanny- almost word for word.

You have mentioned previously the house-building that is such an important contributing factor to the levels of economic activity, and the Dutch man said that he had travelled along the coast and had seen people just building bland "modern" houses right next to old buidlings that were full of historical character- and the old ones were just being abandoned. It seemed to be one way of making a clean start and trying to move away from the past... But who are we without a past?

How does it look to you because I understood that you were over in Ireland?

As for the Social Contract type of device that you mention, for some reason it makes me think of the French 35 hours move that came once France had worked hard to achieve a reasonable standard of living compared to the France that I had first known in 1963. There was a feeling that with unemployment and hard times the "Socialist" thing to do was to share the existing work around more equitably. If everyone worked a few hours less then the aggregate of those hours wuld provide jobs for the unemployed.. M.Sarkosi's government has just passed the necessary laws to allow firms to be more flexible about the hours...

As for what you have said about the Irish scheme, like the French scheme, it all depends upon the way that people either do or do not make it work. Not everyone was in the fortunate position of my brother who worked from home, and when he had earned enough to get into a higher tax bracket, he just decided that he would be better off spending his time with his familiy. That is the crucial question. It reminds me of Paderewski going into the disarmament conference and saying "Everyone agrees that disarmament is a good thing--- for the other fellow". In much the same way everyone is keen to point fingers at people who should pay more tax; but fewer volunteer to do extra work just to pay the tax man.. And I return to the observation of my Irish neighbour who, on a visit back home two years ago, discovered that the latest thing was to keep changing your name so that the tax man would not find you..Have you heard about this? I would count my source as normally reliable...

Regards

Cass

Hi Cass,
What you say about houses is spot on. It surprised me when I arrived here to see so many derelict houses with smart new ones alongside. The planning laws are quite sifferent to the UK and I think this contributes. It's relatively easy for someone to claim that he needs to build a house for family reasons, regardless of the cost to the local authority of providing services. Often, too, it works out cheaper to build new than to modernise - especially if you want "all mod cons". I agree with your point about history. On the other hand there is, within a mile of where I live, the remains of a medievil castle alongside which is an abandoned Georgian farmhouse and a modern bungalow. The whole has remained in the same family since the Tudor plantations. I guess that enables you to see the passage of history in a way that would be less obvious if they's kept on updatng the castle.
However, the real problem has been the explosion of house building over the period 2000 - 2007. The annual rate of construction of around 80-90,000 was boasted about. Compare that to the figure for the UK with almost 15 times the population. There was no way that it could have lasted, even allowing for increases in population due to immigration which has been, proportionately, much greater than in the UK. Similarly, there was a rush to build retail parks which, again, could not have been sustained. In this medium sized town there is a site that was earmarked for a retail development including 60 units. The developer has gone bust, owing about €85m and the administrators are trying to sell the site to recoup the money.
Meanwhile there are 4 smaller retail and mixed developments recently completed where most of the units are empty. Admittedly, Homebase, Halfords and Mothercare have all opened witihn the last few weeks and others are due to open soon. But I could count 30+ empty units still.
On the question of "Social Compact": I spend one morning a week as a volunteer doing small admin tasks for an organisation that oversees a number of "Social Inclusion" projects. One of the employees is a French woman. A fully qualified accountant, she could easily earn more than the €39k she gets from this gov't funded body. But she was saying to me last week she'd happily take a pay freeze if it meant that the lowest paid would have a chance to catch up. She rages against the low tax philosophy that has driven the boom and has lead to what your acquaintances describe as the country losing its soul. She would happily pay more tax in order to have better health and education services.
As for me, the falling value of the pound means my income is going down all the time!

Plotinlaois
Thanks for the information.. It really fleshes out what you had suggested before and raises the question as to how the Irish economy is to earn the incomes necessary to fill all this real estate with buyers, tenants, and customers...I note your voluntary work ,and recall that it was you (I think) who pointed out that Ireland has provided plenty of individuals who have shown great commitment to missionary and other good works.. The question is, however, whether the social conscience generally can be activated. You have mentioned your own problems in that respect during your time a a county councillor... As for your French friend I don't know whether you are aware that members of the French Communist Party used to have all of their wages/ salary paid into a party fund and then it was distributed "to each according to his need". This certainly applied to one of my wife's university lecturers in 1968. But of course it did mean that low paid workers had a material incentive to join the party since they were guaranteed enough money to satisfy their needs and instantly became better off than their peers.

Regarding the old houses that remain to show the past, I am always struck in Burgundy by the number of near derelict, but potentially beautiful stone buildings that are all over the place. Recently I met a Brit who has lived in our small town for ten years and has spent that time renovating a four story house right next to our thirteenth century church. And we discussed the sad state of the old houses. There are many causes for the dilapidation; but a friend's sister who came to tea said that almost every settlement in Burgundy has got a British person resident in it. She instantly recognised our typical vegetable plot, and the work that we are doing to get our own house in order- so ours is only 1975 vintage. Obviously centuries of security and prosperity has got something to do with it. But why the difference? As we wait for the rich Americans to get the world economy going again I return to my "De-Industrialization of Britain" article. The French do not have British primogeniture and so have never been able to become risk takers like entrepreneurs or those who have "gone west young man" with nothing but their talents and a willingness to work.

Regards

Cass

Plotinlaois
I have now posted two articles about the state of Britain if you are intererested. "Humanity and the Missing Link" that I have just completed; and "A Classless Society" that I wrote a couple of months ago.

In between I wrote something about the place and function of France- that I may put up soon. No point in overloading the system.. But just as we currently need a strong USA- economically and politically, we also need a France that is strong in the eternal cultural values with which the country was long associated.

And looking ahead- last year I wrote a piece "The Future is Chinese" that would give something of a rounded overall view.

Cass