I devised this horseracing system in the early 1990s. I researched three seasons and the system was profitable for those seasons.

The reasoning

A bookmaker's percentage is very poor in races with only two or three runners. In a race such as the Grand National, although the odds look very good (with a favourite of about 8 to 1) the bookmaker's percentage is very very good. So, the focus of the system is on steeplechase races with only two or three runners.

It's a fact that, in steeplechase races with two or three runners with HARD going, fifty percent of favourites are beaten. With these favourites often at odds-on prices (8 to 15, for example) the punter only has to back the second favourite to win IN THE LONG RUN.

(Note: I didn't do any research for hurdle races.)

Summary

1) Wait for a steeplechase race meeting with HARD going.

2) Pick out any steeplechase race with only two or three runners.

3) Back the second favourite to win.

The challenge

I doubt very much if the system is applicable in the modern racing world. For starters, the track watering system has improved considerably and hard going - to my knowledge - is something of a rarity. Also the entry requirements have changed and horses can be entered into races at shorter notice, thus making fields larger.

Would somebody have access to all the results of races that match the system requirements from 1990? It would be interesting to see if it would have gone on making a profit past those three seasons I tested. I'd also like to know if the system worked/works with hurdle races. If the system is still applicable on very rare occasions then maybe somebody could make some money.