The Real Story of Uninsured Driving in Britain
Created | Updated Nov 10, 2006
(Including an overview of the Map of the Uninsured Motorist)
What is the scale of uninsured driving in the UK?
The honest answer to this question is that we do not know for certain, for a very obvious reason: those who drive whilst intentionally avoiding taking out insurance cover are hardly likely to self-refer.
David Greenaway – ‘Uninsured Driving in the United Kingdom’ (3.5)
In March 2003, I chanced upon the solution to a problem that the extent of which, we didn’t realise existed and affects just one, apparently small area of uninsured driving. An area currently believed to be so small, that it has never been targeted by any specifically designed initiatives to force its reduction. In fact, it is still being treated with the same, out dated detection methods since it was first discovered. These methods have created a lack of awareness surrounding this offence that has allowed it to grow in popularity whilst becoming increasingly difficult to detect.
For years, this offence has been allowed to remain virtually hidden from view because a mix of insurance industry policies, too few government initiatives and out dated detection methods have allowed it to. However, once the solution to this problem was applied, the reality and enormity of this offence came crashing in. It really was like turning a light switch on, for years we have been looking into the darkness of uninsured driving whilst stumbling around trying to find a solution, much as we are still doing today, to a problem that we really did not fully understand. The solution has now presented itself and has exposed all groups of uninsured drivers in their entirety and has also shown us just how far back into the darkness that uninsured driving goes.
The area of uninsured driving that I am referring to completely changes the current perception of uninsured driving and also completes the last piece of the uninsured driving map. It has identified the part of uninsured driving that consists of those motorists who use home made insurance certificates (fake), cancelled insurance certificates and on occasion stolen insurance certificates or cover notes. It also confirms those who are insurance are confirmed as being so and as such has created a complete picture of uninsured driving today and has created ‘The First Map of the Uninsured Motorist’.
Even today, with all of the current Government and Insurance industry initiatives it is still incredibly easy for the uninsured driver to avoid paying for any insurance premium and only have a relatively miniscule chance of prosecution for being uninsured.
Today’s Understanding of Uninsured Driving
The current understanding of uninsured driving is flawed, in that the estimates are too low and its composition is incomplete.
To give you some idea of how fake and cancelled insurance certificates have and still are affecting uninsured driving today, we need to compare them with how uninsured driving is currently perceived to be.
In 2003/04 I conducted a study of 876 motorists over a 4 month period. The results bear a striking resemblance to the current train of thought on uninsured driving, representing almost exactlywhat the government and insurance industry believe the level of uninsured driving to be.
Out of these 876 motorists, 45 were found to have no insurance, 44 admitted to the offence and using current detection methods 1 was caught using a fake insurance certificate. This picture is common across the UK and one which creates the basis of our current understanding of uninsured driving.
The fake insurance certificate presented, was of such a poor quality that with a visual check, it raised suspicion with the individual who examined it. However, fake insurance certificates are becoming increasingly difficult to detect because of improvements in home computing and printing.
In October 2004 the government estimated that the number of uninsured drivers in the UK was around 1.2 million (in November 2005 this was revised to 2 million). The insurance industry currently estimates uninsured driving to be in the region of 5% or 1.6 million. Uswing the results of the initial study and projecting them onto a national level we can see that my preliminary values are remarkably similar to current beliefs.
The 45 uninsured motorists displayed as a percentage of the total 876 motorists examined is 5.1%, almost identical to insurance industry estimates of 5%.
5.1% of a British motoring population of 32 Million translates to a possible 1,632,000 uninsured motorists on British roads.
The insurance industry estimated the number of uninsured drivers to be in the region of 1,600,000 motorists a difference of only 32,000 or 0.1%.
So these sets of figures are remarkably similar.
The second study used the exact same group of 876 motorists but this time the new method of detection was applied and the full extent of the problem of uninsured driving in the UK revealed itself.
Uninsured Driving Analysis Using the New Detection Method
The exact same group of 876 motorists from the first study were now subjected to the new detection method, but now only 818 were found to be insured and58 were now found to be uninsured. The same 44 as before had freely admitted to driving whilst uninsured, the same 1 was caught using a fake insurance certificate but 13 additional others had managed to successfully deceive the document examiner into believing that their insurance certificate was genuine. Representing an increase of around 1200% this is the reality of what is occurring across the UK today.
Applying these figures onto a national scale alters our understanding of uninsured driving significantly and we now arrive at the following, more likely understanding of uninsured driving in the UK.
58 uninsured motorists as a percentage of 876 is 6.62%
6.62% of 32,000,000 UK motorists results in a new possible average of 2,118,400 uninsured motorists on our roads, an additional 518400 or 24% over and above government and insurance industry estimates.
Mapping the Uninsured Motorist
There is no accurate measure as to the level of uninsured driving in the UK, in part as those involved in non-compliance are trying to avoid getting caught.
PA Consulting Group ABI/MIB Delivering a more up-to-date MID.
Since 2003 there has been a method available to accurately measure the level of uninsured driving in the UK, we are seeing the results of it here. This method will detect all of those who actively participate in non-compliance who at the same time practice methods of avoiding prosecution.
To date everyone without vehicle insurance who has been passed through the new method has been successfully detected. Everyone who has insurance has been confirmed as such. The guesswork has been removed and there are no errors or false positives in calculating to numbers of uninsured drivers on our roads. They can now be counted in real numbers.
The latter stages of the study concentrated on examining how offenders reacted or behaved after being detected. It revealed that in the region of 90% of offenders who had been detected had then gone on, to purchase insurance and are now driving their vehicles legally. The remaining 10% had either been disqualified from driving or had continued to offend resulting in them becoming intelligence targets. Only now they faced stiffer penalties for their offending, penalties that can only continue to increase in severity until they comply, are banned form the roads or imprisoned. Also because they have become a target for the police they are far more liable to be stopped again within days or weeks as compared to months or years.
The information taken from the study and what we currently understand about uninsured has been placed into a chart which has given us the first ‘Map of the Uninsured Motorist’. A map that is essential to the formulation of effective and sustainable initiatives aimed at reducing uninsured motoring. Unfortunately I am currently unable to publish it here.
It basically comprises of a rough guide to most of the main known reasons for driving whilst uninsured. In it I have combined fake and cancelled insurance certificates and this area now makes up almost 24% of the uninsured driving map. As well as being twice the size of every other area of uninsured driving, careful targeting of this area will cause its reduction by 100%, the single largest reduction in uninsured driving possible. It will achieve this by invalidating these offences instantly and seeing the end of their use by 100% within two or three years. In all of the other areas being targetted by new initiatives, only a reduction of 50% is considered achievable but optimistic. So targeting the use of fake and cancelled insurance certificates must be considered to be the foundation stone in reducing uninsured driving and will provide invaluable support for all other initiatives.
So as you can see, the new detection method, if used correctly, will instantly render the use of fake and cancelled insurance certificates obsolete the moment that it is placed in operation. It will inspire 90% of those uninsured to get insurance and the remaining 10% of offenders will be dealt with, with increased speed and severity and all under existing laws.
How does the deception work?
The deception is simplicity itself and its success relies on weaknesses in the Motor Insurance Database. The database contains personal vehicle insurance information which is linked to other computer based systems. It was recommended that this database should be updated the instant that insurance is purchased. This requirement was rejected due to the pressure and cost it would have placed on the individual insurance companies and brokers. This effectively means that the data base is not 100%.
Because of this, police officers are unable to rely completely on the MID’s accuracy and offenders are free to exploit its’ weaknesses.
If a police officer stops a vehicle suspected of having no insurance they will try to use their powers to remove it from the road. The offender only has to claim that they have insurance and because of the weakness in the MID it seems possible that the vehicle is actually insured, many are. The officer then has no choice but to issue the motorist with an HO/RT1, requirement to produce vehicle documents at a police station. The offender then produces a fake or cancelled insurance certificate further exploiting weaknesses in the document examination process and walks away without fear of prosecution. As we have seen in figure 1, 93% of those attempting this deception or 13 out of the 14 attempted, are successful.
This deception is also going on in post offices by offenders to purchase vehicle excise licences and also in our courts after some of these offences are presented before the magistrates.
The Solution
The solution is again simplicity itself and its success is based on repairing the weaknesses in the Motor Insurance Database and developing a new process in dealing with insurance certificates as current processes are ineffective. A weakness, which is allowing £220m per year to escape from the insurance industry whilst motorists are paying ever increasing premiums.
The initial stage is to identify, using the MID, that the document being examined is possible invalid.
Stage 2 is to contact the individual insurance companies to ascertain its validity.
Stage 3 is to have the certificate seized and the uninsured driver dealt with.
Once the certificate has been confirmed as being fake or invalid a whole new process begins which takes the offender on his/her journey from detection through to court and then the monitoring of the offender to ensure future compliance. It is of most importance that it is implemented thoroughly and completely within our courts, police stations and post offices in order to achieve the greatest possible reduction in uninsured driving anything less will create weaknesses in the process rendering it vulnerable to failure.
SEFR – Statutory Enforcement from the Record
The government and insurance industry have been working together in an effort to reduce uninsured driving by 50%.
It is hoped that this will be achieved through a new insurance targeted regime using ‘Statutory Enforcement from the Record’ (SEFR) and a combination of other initiatives.
These initiatives aim to increase the chance of detection and improve awareness of the motor insurance requirement in an effort to change the behaviour of the uninsured motorist. It was hoped that it would result in a reduced number of uninsured drivers, ease the pressure on the honest motorist and improve road safety for everyone whilst at the same time greatly reducing this burden from police officers.
However as we have seen earlier in the report, these initiatives are addressing areas that are currently believed to be capable of achieving the greatest reductions in uninsured driving.
The common misconception of the uninsured has been created from information taken from the insurance industry, government collision statistics, roadside surveys and various other sources. It has created the illusion that uninsured driving in the UK currently stands at around 5%.
By using a mixture of SERF, ANPR and educational initiatives it is hoped to reduce uninsured driving by almost 50%. But the number of fake and cancelled insurance certificates in circulation is unknown to government and insurance industry and estimates of actual numbers are, as we now understand, greatly underestimated.
With both types of invalid insurance certificates combined, they now make up in the region of 24% approx. of all uninsured motorists. Numbers of this magnitude will surely have a negative effect on the 25%-50% of reductions that SERF is hoping to achieve.
In reality SEFR can now only achieve a maximum reduction in uninsured driving of around 19% - 38% at best, but with the possibility of many of these offenders declaring SORN as a way of avoiding postal fines, even a reduction of 19% in uninsured motoring created by SEFR must now be considered overly optimistic.
In 2004 I warned the government and insurance industry that SEFR was vulnerable and ineffective in tackling this type of offender behaviour. I predicted a mass migration of offenders from being uninsured to being uninsured and also SORN declared. SEFR would only create the illusion that the number of uninsured drivers on the roads had fallen dramatically, much as it is doing so today. I now believe this prediction to be correct and the bulk of persistently uninsured drivers have declared SORN to avoid his postal fine and once again, uninsured driving is still a problem for the police alone to have to deal with.
As I predicted 'Statutory Enforcement from the Record' and 'Continuous Enforcement from the Record' have had a major impact on the number of SORN declared vehicles on the roads. Since these initiatives were introduced we have seen the numbers of SORN declared vehicles rise by over 300% from 358,807 in 2003/4 to 1,443,602 in 2005/6.
There is no current way to calculate if these vehicles are being kept off the road and so there is also therefore a very real possibility that ‘Statutory Enforcement from the Record’ and ‘Continuous Enforcement from the Record’ have both failed in their objective to reduce uninsured driving on British roads.
The Benefit of Eradicating this Offence.
Besides the evident financial benefit, of half a million motorists becoming insured. There is another and far more important benefit to consider.
It has been said that the uninsured driver is between 5 and 9 times more likely to be involved in a collision.
From this we can estimate that the detection method has a serious part to play in reducing road traffic casualties.
There are 3200 deaths on our roads each year. This means that the normal motorist is responsible for approx 0.0001 deaths per year(less certain variables). Or one in every thousand motorists will be involved in a fatal traffic collision. So if 486400 who were once uninsured, became insured then their risk of causing death would the presumably reduce by at least 400%.
In terms of road casualties this could translate into the prevention of approx:
175 Road Deaths per year.
1750 Serious injuries per year
17500 Minor injuries per year
175000 Damage only collisions per year.
In addition to this the insurance industry would also benefit by having nearly half a milliom uninsured motorists renewing their insurance with them. ly a small selection of them. At an average cost of £481 per insurance policy in the UK the industry could expect to see a return of £224,415,360 per year.
The combined benefits to the economy taking account of the costs of not having to deal with this number of road deaths and serious injuries should be well in excess of £500,000,000 per year.