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predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 1

paulh, not fond of Lord Mudpants

I found a site that predicted the Oscar nominees for movies released in 2016, but which in reality might not get anywhere near the theaters most people visit until February:


best picture

“Moonlight” (A24)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adele Romanski
“La La Land” (SUMMIT ENTERTAINMENT)
Fred Berger, Gary Gilbert, Jordan Horowitz, Marc Platt
“Manchester by the Sea” (ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS/AMAZON STUDIOS)
Lauren Beck, Matt Damon, Chris Moore, Kimberly Steward, Kevin J. Walsh
“Silence” (PARAMOUNT PICTURES)
Vittorio Cecchi Gori, Barbara De Fina, Randall Emmett, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Irwin Winkler
“Fences” (PARAMOUNT PICTURES)
Todd Black, Scott Rudin, Denzel Washington
“Hacksaw Ridge” (LIONSGATE)
Terry Benedict, Paul Currie, Bruce Davey, William D. Johnson, Bill Mechanic, Brian Oliver, David Permut, Tyler Thompson
“Lion” (THE WEINSTEIN COMPANY)
Iain Canning, Angie Fielder, Emile Sherman
“Arrival” (PARAMOUNT PICTURES)
Dan Levine, Shawn Levy, David Linde, Karen Lunder, Aaron Ryder
“Hell or High Water” (CBS FILMS)
Sidney Kimmel, Peter Berg, Carla Hacken, Julie Yorn:

director

Barry Jenkins – “Moonlight“
Damien Chazelle – “La La Land“
Martin Scorsese – “Silence“
Kenneth Lonergan – “Manchester by the Sea“
Denis Villeneuve – “Arrival“

lead actor

Denzel Washington – “Fences“
Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea“
Viggo Mortensen – “Captain Fantastic“
Ryan Gosling – “La La Land“
Andrew Garfield – “Hacksaw Ridge“

lead actress

Natalie Portman – “Jackie“
Emma Stone – “La La Land“
Amy Adams – “Arrival“
Meryl Streep – “Florence Foster Jenkins“
Ruth Negga – “Loving“

supporting actor

Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight“
Hugh Grant – “Florence Foster Jenkins“
Dev Patel – “Lion“
Jeff Bridges – “Hell or High Water“
Issey Ogata – “Silence“

supporting actress

Viola Davis – “Fences“
Naomie Harris – “Moonlight“
Nicole Kidman – “Lion“
Michelle Williams – “Manchester by the Sea“
Octavia Spencer – “Hidden Figures“

originaL Screeenplay

“Manchester by the Sea” – Kenneth Lonergan
“La La Land” – Damien Chazelle
“Hell or High Water” – Taylor Sheridan
“The Lobster” – Efthimis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos
“Captain Fantastic” – Matt Ross

adapted screenplay

“Moonlight” – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney
“Fences” – August Wilson
“Lion” – Luke Davies
“Arrival” – Eric Heisserer
“Loving” – Jeff Nichols

animated feature

“Zootopia” – (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Kubo and the Two Strings” – (Laika)
“The Red Turtle” – (Sony Pictures Classics)
“My Life as a Zucchini” – (GKIDS)
“Miss Hokusai” – (GKIDS)



predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 2

paulh, not fond of Lord Mudpants

You might want to note that "Rogue One" is not on any of the lists, nor will it appear until you get down tot he specialty categories like cinematography [where it is in 7th place out of 5].

That being said, I will be seeing it tonight because there are people like my nephew who won't talk about much else.

"Moonlight"? It was in my local community theater for five days, after which it was dropped and "Lion" was put in its place. I had counted on seeing "Moonlight," but was a day too late to do so.

I didn't really want to see another violent WWII movie, so I didn't see "hacksaw Ridge" when it as in the theaters. Who knew it would be nominated for something.



There are so many prestigious movies in the theaters now that I would have to go to one movie a day for a week to make a dent in them. I have no idea which, if any, will still be regarded as important ten years from now. The Oscars are as much a shot in the dark as any other rating system,

But still....


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 3

paulh, not fond of Lord Mudpants

"Rogue One" was pretty much okay. The droid with the English accent reminded me of someone I know.


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 4

Pierce The Pirate ~ in Hotblack Desiato mode ~

You do realize there will be a whole lot of other nominees than the ones you mentioned, right?

smiley - pirate


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 5

paulh, not fond of Lord Mudpants

There may well be other nominees. The website I looked at had numerous alternate slates.

I can go cross-eyed looking at all of them. smiley - sadface

In the end, Oscars will go to one film, one director, one lead actor, etc. By the time the final winners are known, chances are the films will be long gone from the theaters.

Here's the deal: In the first eleven months of the year, I see two movies a week. This is empowering. I get to choose. Then December comes along, and movies I've never even heard of are trotted out as the best of the best. I can ignore this, or I can see some of the films that received wisdom has ordained as the best.

Some day, some films that weren't celebrated when they first came out will get some second and third looks and be inducted into the great films canon. Maybe I will have seen these in May or July or whenever they came out. Hollywood is a business. I'm helping to keep it afloat, but it seems ungrateful for my help this time of the year. smiley - sadface

Just wait until the Spring, though. smiley - evilgrin


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 6

Pierce The Pirate ~ in Hotblack Desiato mode ~

"In the end, Oscars will go to one film ..."

Not quite correct. There is also an award for best foreign language film. All in all there are 29 categories smiley - geek

smiley - pirate


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 7

paulh, not fond of Lord Mudpants

Plus best short film and best animated film. I count three "best film" categories, which admittedly is more than one, but less than 29.

Little by little, I'm seeing the films that seem to have the best chance at winning, but there are so many, and some have come and gone. I can see a few on DVD or online, but seeing the in the theater is more comfortable. smiley - smiley


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 8

Pierce The Pirate ~ in Hotblack Desiato mode ~

One of this year's Danish films is predicted a fairly good chance of being nominated as best non-English. It is called "Under Sandet" ("Under The Sand") and is quite moving. And horryfying.

smiley - pirate


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 9

paulh, not fond of Lord Mudpants

You are right, Pierce [not for the first time, I might add].

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Danish_submissions_for_the_Academy_Award_for_Best_Foreign_Language_Film

"Under Sandet" made the December shortlist.


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 10

Pierce The Pirate ~ in Hotblack Desiato mode ~

smiley - tasmiley - flustered

"Land of Mine" is a brilliant translation, pun included

smiley - pirate


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 11

paulh, not fond of Lord Mudpants

We'll see how it does. I rarely get bragging rights for having seen the winning film in the foreign language category. There's a local theater that shows art films, but many of the foreign language contenders don't make it there.


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 12

Icy North

"Art films"? Is that the same as what we used to call "continental cinema"? Very educational (cough).


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 13

paulh, not fond of Lord Mudpants

That's probably what they are, Icy. I see almost everything they show at that theater, plus about two thirds of the mainstream films at the local megaplex.

Thanks for joining us in the discussion. Neither Hollywood nor the critics are going to take anything we say seriously, but by all means don't be shy here.

movies in 2016 were either the worst of any year in recent history [Dustin Hoffman's assessment], or the same mixed bag of tired old franchises, weirdly creative experiments, and paychecks for actors who want to be anything that might make them some money. smiley - erm


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 14

broelan

While you go to at least two movies a week, I *might* go see two movies a year. They're just so expensive. I work during the day, and I have kids, so I have to go evenings and weekends and buy extra tickets. Also, my husband is under the impression that it is impossible to see any film without popcorn (this goes for movies at home, too). So seeing a movie is a $50+ expense.

Therefore, when I go to actually see a movie, I am going purely to be entertained. I don't care in the least what's trendy, what's artsy, what's "Oscar-worthy", and I don't pay a lot of attention to reviews, either. Of the movies on your list I've only heard of about 6 of them.

So, what did I waste money on at the theater last year? I saw Fantastic Beasts. Did the new Star Trek come out last year? I saw that, too. I think that's it.

We do have a dollar house that's managed to stay open despite several threats to close. I suppose I should support it more because I would be sorry to see it go. Maybe later this year after we move closer to it I'll go more often.


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 15

paulh, not fond of Lord Mudpants

I think "Fantastic Beasts" was well worth seeing. I don't draw a line between what's entertaining and what's Oscar-worthy, though I sometimes think the people at the Academy ought to be more aware of just how much of an ordeal it is to watch extreme films like "Revenant" or that Swan lake movie that Natalie Portman won an oscar for a few years ago. Fortunately, Oscar has smiled on entertaining films like "Sound of Music," "Gone with the wind," "Titanic," "The Martian," "return of the King," "Slumdog millionaire," "West Side Story," "Godfather," etc.


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 16

Pierce The Pirate ~ in Hotblack Desiato mode ~

I'm not entirely sure what makes me choose the films I go watching in a cinema. I believe I have to see Tolkien and Star Wars just to make sure. And James Bond. Either than that - well

smiley - pirate


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 17

paulh, not fond of Lord Mudpants

I see those, too. "La La land" was a pleasant surprise: an updated version of the classic musical. Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling doing elegant dance numbers (which made me think of Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers), plus wacky set pieces like cars waiting bumper to bumper on a freeway in ramp, when the drivers get out and do complicated song and dance numbers. I guess when you're in Los Angeles you fantasize a lot.


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 18

Pierce The Pirate ~ in Hotblack Desiato mode ~

When I was in LA I learned that every importantly looking building has frequently been used in films. If memory serves town hall was the police headquarter in a Batman movie for example.

Which made me think that LA'ers must develop a strong ability to abstract from reality when going to the cinemas.

smiley - pirate


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 19

paulh, not fond of Lord Mudpants

There's a rock formation on that back lot that I've seen more than once -- in the original "Little Shop of Horrors" as well as some "Twilight Zone" episodes.


predicted nominations for the oscars

Post 20

broelan

When I was in LA I learned that people there plant a thorny variety of grass to keep kids from running through their lawns. I might have come across this wisdom firsthand.


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