A Conversation for Ask h2g2

How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 81

Maria


Actual racists versus recent racists or non racist voters of Trump (or Brexit, or any other fascist/rascist version around the world), are different because the former started to suck hatred and lack of empathy many years ago, the latter, recently.
The more they suck fascism the sooner they will stop denying they are fascist and will attend rallies of the KKK, flag symbols, etc.
And we see this is trendy and not punished.

I think of the non racist/fascist northamericans.
Let´s take a current example: the caravan of migrants. The non fascist voters of Trump ignore the history of Guatemala and Honduras and the reasons behind the caravan.
If they knew the direct role of US in the political mess of those countries, and could also see and listen to the personal stories of those people, then , empathy and knowledge will be a shield against fear and hatred induced by manipulation and ignorance.

If you move to Brexit voters, we´ll find different kinds of voters too. Some of them have realised the lies and have changed their opinion. Other are dreaming of making Britain Empire great again...

I can go on with spaniards, if some of them weren´t so ignorant of our own history, the fear and hatred, delivered from many sources ,wouldn´t take roots.


It´s not just about our own history, it´s also about being willing to get well informed about what´s going on in the whole world.
The refugees, for instance, where´s the problem? Many politicians have used fear and lies to make people think that there´s a crisis, a problem Europe can´t solve, etc.



How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 82

paulh. I write captions for pictures of cats. The shame! The shame!

"Let´s take a current example: the caravan of migrants. The non fascist voters of Trump ignore the history of Guatemala and Honduras and the reasons behind the caravan. If they knew the direct role of US in the political mess of those countries, and could also see and listen to the personal stories of those people, then , empathy and knowledge will be a shield against fear and hatred induced by manipulation and ignorance. [Maria]

You've put that very well, Maria. smiley - smiley

A little knowledge of American history would help, too. California, Arizona, Texas, and some other parts of the Southwest used to be part of Mexico, before the Mexican War (1846-1848). I expect that there are descendants of Mexican subjects living throughout that area. On some level, I would expect that people from south of the current U.S. border ought to be treated with respect. That border used to be hundreds of miles further north.

True, I think that *everyone* deserves respect, but Mexicans in particular. Trump's hardliners go on about undocumented people being here "illegally", without considering the special history of the region. smiley - sadface


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 83

The Left Reverend Doktor Baron Grim

They're Olympian level pros at cognitive dissonance. They think in slogans. Their brains are squeaky clean.


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 84

paulh. I write captions for pictures of cats. The shame! The shame!

It took a lot of work for the Democrats to pick up seats in the House. It will take hard work to keep the seats, let alone pick up more. smiley - sigh

I have to keep reminding myself that regression to the mean is real and always at work. After going *above* the mean with Obama, we've gone below it with Trump. Time will hopefully find some kind of balance. Maybe I will live long enough to see it happen. smiley - smiley


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 85

Orcus

Well Keith Chegwin has gone - that's one down smiley - winkeye


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 86

paulh. I write captions for pictures of cats. The shame! The shame!

Are you sure the report of his demise isn't fake news? smiley - biggrin


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 87

Otto Fisch ("Stop analysing Strava.... and cut your hedge")


Turns out someone (Yougov's former President Peter Kellner) has had a go at answering Hoo's original question in this thread, and they've come up with the 19th January 2019 as 'crossover day'. The article is from Sept 2018 and I missed it at the time, though it's linked from a Guardian article today.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/final-say-remain-leave-second-referendum-brexit-no-deal-crossover-day-a8541576.html

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/17/saturday-uk-remain-parliament-force-second-referendum


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 88

paulh. I write captions for pictures of cats. The shame! The shame!

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/17/saturday-uk-remain-parliament-force-second-referendum


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 89

Teasswill

I just noticed this too. Nothing undemocratic about checking what people want now. We do it every few years to elect MPs.


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 90

Teasswill

And I'm fed up with May declaring the the country 'overwhelmingly' want x, y, z. She's just not listening.


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 91

The Left Reverend Doktor Baron Grim

I think a second referendum should have been called once it was obvious how much of the Leave platform was based on blatant lies and bolstered by Russian interference.


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 92

Wand'rin star

Having read the Guardian article today, I thought I would tackle this thread -although I now wish I hadn't. I am 75 and voted remain. I have considered myself a European since before I was old enough to vote. My remaining family and many of my friends are opting for changing their citizenship to other European Union member states, which is an option I don't have.
I hold an MSc and frankly would rather be dead than living with a no-deal Brexit.


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 93

paulh. I write captions for pictures of cats. The shame! The shame!

I'm hoping that there will still be enough time for other options to be worked out. smiley - smiley


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 94

Hoovooloo

I posed this question in November.

Yesterday, someone answered it. Someone authoritative has done the polls and done the sums, and the answer is in.

I was right.

Specifically, I was right that demographics and the march of time is indeed removing Leave voters from the electorate and adding Remainers.

Even more specifically, they've worked out when Remain starts to outnumber Leave... and it's tomorrow, January 19th 2019.

By January 19th, enough Leave voters will have died and enough Remain voters will have passed the age of 18 that if we ran the vote again and

1. nobody changed their mind
2. people turned out in the same proportions
3. young people voted in the same proportion as they did last time

then tomorrow the referendum would be a dead heat.

If we ran it on March 29th, Remain would win by 100,000. And this trend is only going one way. It assumes nobody on the Leave side comes to their senses (which in fairness if my Facebook feed is anything to go by, they won't). It also assumes nobody who voted Remain now favours Leave, which again, distressingly, if my friends are anything to go by is by no means certain.

It's the strongest argument for another referendum, and I'm not sure why it's not being pushed harder. Is it that hard to understand?


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 95

Hoovooloo

Oh, link:

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/final-say-remain-leave-second-referendum-brexit-no-deal-crossover-day-a8541576.html?fbclid=IwAR36MR9StrvDKH2J5p1HCqjlCJjE4JD6HWjzb0f5FvhxbXL32J-r032nl8c


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 96

Orcus

>It's the strongest argument for another referendum, and I'm not sure why it's not being pushed harder. Is it that hard to understand?<

Nope but since when did this whole shambles have anything to do with understanding anything?


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 97

Teasswill

I wonder if the calculations take into account that not all oldies were leave & not all youngsters remain?

From the small sample I've encountered, I get the impression there are more leavers who've changed their minds that vice versa. As a remainer myself I can only hope that we have some sort of new vote on it which is substantially to remain. Parliament won't have the guts to say the only good course is to stay, I can't see any agreement on any deal, so I guess it would have to be a people's vote.

There will still be a substantial number of leavers who won't keep quiet though.


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 98

bobstafford

I you think about it on average every retired couple who moved to the EU took about a million pounds with them, the cash for the home, their state and private pensions all of which is a loss to the UK. No mention has been made of that revenue loss!


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 99

Rev Nick - give me poutine, or give me death

I really have to ask - what line of work were these average retirees? That they accrued 1,000,000 pounds of property, investments and savings? smiley - wow


How many Leave voters are already dead? And how long before Remainers outnumber them?

Post 100

bobstafford

Sell the house for a southerner that is a third of it, then the cars, savings, jewelry and private pension pots.
20 plus years of state pensions, private pensions, disability allowances etc will be paid into Europe and spent there. Any taxation will be collected by the new country, and it will be less than the UK's demand.

The UK will also loose out rates taxes and the money they would spend in the country. Then the UK subsidies some aspects of medical care.

Its an averaged figure Add it all up not be far off Prof.


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