A Conversation for Ask h2g2

Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 321

bobstafford

With an exit bill payable to the EU estimated at over 10 billion and the possibility of Scotland and Ireland claiming independence, Scotland is particularly in a good position to establish a strong economy.

So "if" those two decide to go it alone there is not much left of the UK. Potentially Wales could be invited unite with the other two to form a "Celtic Union" England will struggle to recover within 40 years.

What will happen to all those problems we were told we had they will not go away. In a strange twist there looks like the EU workers that do the the more manual jobs are dwindling. There is a real possibility that the DHSS will make these workers take this work. Well that looks like this will be very welcome news for the unemployed! Somehow I don't think so.

The pity is the system was working relatively well, yes there were problems and faults but the migrant problems could have been belt with in a more humane way, with the possible repatriation after the war.

Since the out vote all our positions seen to have lost the plot and we appear to have been put on a course headed in the general direction of a hard time.

Mr Trump and his comments are not helping either!




Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 322

Icy North

Wales join a Celtic union? smiley - laugh I think not.

But Scottish independence is definitely on the cards. Eventually the SNP will hold the balance of power in a hung Westminster and be promised another referendum. I can't see any other outcome. The question is when?


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 323

Hoovooloo

The SNP don't need to hold a balance of power in a hung Westminster. They're already basically the only party in Scotland. If Sturgeon felt it was to her advantage, she'd have already called another independence referendum and there's very little the UK government could do to stop her. Bleating about the will of the people cuts both ways - Scotland emphatically voted remain and there are basically no non-SNP MPs north of the border. The UK government has zero mandate up there.

Now obviously there'd need to be UK legislation to authorise a Scottish vote - but if the Scots insisted, the UK would not, in its current weakened state, be in any position to resist. It's interesting that so far Sturgeon hasn't felt the need. If Brexit goes south, though...


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 324

Icy North

So what's the SNP's strategy? They have to be resigned to Brexit now. When Westminster triggers Article 50, that precludes Sturgeon from talking to the EU about an independent Scotland as an EU member until the break happens.

I'm guessing she's keeping her options open in any case. Who can tell what the EU's going to look like after this year's elections in member states - many nationalist candidates are tipped to win. Would the EU be worth joining without, say, Netherlands or even France? Someone's going to have to subsidise Eastern Europe.

And even if she can call another Scottish referendum (and I don't see the point without it being sanctioned by Westminster) who could predict the result when the political future's so uncertain? Now they have an overwhelming majority in Scotland, they actually have something to lose.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 325

Chris Morris

Icy, I think you've answered your own question perfectly there. The only thing that can destroy Sturgeon's political career now is to lose another referendum. She is well aware that she has everything to lose by holding one without being absolutely certain of the result.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 326

Mr. X ---> "You may be a king or a little street-sweeper, but sooner or later you dance with the Reaper...."

I'm confused.

The British Isles are all (ostensibly) nice and isolated, fine. It's ridiculous, but okay, I can at least kind of see how people in Britain could convince themselves they're better off leaving the E.U.

BUT!

Surely, anyone ON THE CONTINENT can see the OBVIOUS benefit of free trade and free travel THROUGHOUT THE CONTINENT!

Can't they?

I mean, you're not seriously suggesting the whole thing's about to fall apart, are you?

That would have to be the dumbest thing I've ever seen. And only a few months ago I saw tens-of-millions of people vote an overgrown, spoiled child --- who throws a temper tantrum every time he doesn't get his way --- into the White House, over the top of (arguably) the MOST QUALIFIED PERSON EVER.

So that's saying something.

smiley - pirate


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 327

bobstafford

Unfortunately the years of mismanagement by politicians, has been blamed in equal portions on the EU and immigration.
It also an indication of the poor educational standards since the end of the 11 plus examination.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 328

You can call me TC

Maybe Brexit will open the sluice gates. The Netherlands and France have already had murmurings of wanting out, as well.

De Gaulle and Adenauer must be turning in their graves.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 329

Hoovooloo

"Surely, anyone ON THE CONTINENT can see the OBVIOUS benefit of free trade and free travel THROUGHOUT THE CONTINENT!"

I'm sure the French are keenly aware of the benefits. Google the word "Bataclan" for an example.

I'm sure the Dutch are keenly aware too. Google "Theo van Gogh" for an example.

"you're not seriously suggesting the whole thing's about to fall apart, are you?"

You're not seriously suggesting that's not possible, are you? Because if you are, you're probably one of those people who, six months ago, said something like "You're not seriously suggesting Trump's going to win, are you?". Wake TF up.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 330

Baron Grim

The lesson would seem to be to not underestimate the growing power of fear and hate. It's not just the extremists that's troubling, the neo-nazis and alt-right racists, the evangelicals and the anti-abortionists. It's everyone who feels resistance to the way the perceive the way the world has been changing over the last decade. They come from different viewpoints but they all vaguely unite over resistance to changes they weren't ready for. These authoritarian, far right movements and regimes that are growing in Western, liberally democratic nations could be seen as blow-back from a decade or more of progressive advancement. Things they can positively identify as losses to liberalism like a black US president, same-sex marriage, increasingly repressive political correctness, &c and things they imagine as resulting from liberalism like immigration problems, increased crime and terrorism, job losses, globalization, &c; various perceived threats instill resistance to change and these people are taking this growing opportunity to "take things back". Back to where isn't easily defined, but they want to take it back anyway.

And how much of this is being influenced by Putin's Russia? Besides the questions about how much he's influencing politics in the US and Europe through hacking, espionage, intel, counter-intel, and propaganda there's also the whole issue with Syria. By backing Assad he's driving throngs of refugees into Europe and elsewhere which strains the resources and morale of host nations. He couldn't be more pleased.

There's some strong forces coalescing in history and it doesn't look good.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 331

Mr. X ---> "You may be a king or a little street-sweeper, but sooner or later you dance with the Reaper...."

No, Hooloovoo, I was asking you to explain what they think they'd gain by leaving.

Predictably, you decided instead to insult my intelligence.

smiley - pirate


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 332

Hoovooloo

I can't explain to you what the French or Dutch might think they'd gain by leaving, mainly because I can't explain to you in any sensible terms what the British thought they'd gain by leaving.

I don't believe the British "thought" anything, because I wouldn't grace the process with the name "thought". People who voted Leave were promised all kinds of things, not least that £350m a week for the NHS, which was a clear and loud lie and was called out repeatedly well in advance of polling day. They were promised we'd get our "sovereignty" back, whatever that means. For what they actually felt a Leave vote would achieve, I suspect you'd get as many answers as there were voters, and that most of them would be head-bangingly stupid, like the woman in this clip who I hope to Bod for the future of the species isn't able to breed: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/bbc-question-time-audience-member-i-voted-for-brexit-because-of-straight-bananas-a3457326.html

I'm sure that right-wing nutbars and independently rich douchebags of the Gove/Johnson/Farage ilk are present and active in France and Holland and elsewhere to spin the same lies, and I have zero faith the French and Dutch public are any more immune to their wiles than ours was.

There: I'm sorry if I came across as insulting your intelligence. Hope the above goes some way to fixing that.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 333

swl

The SNP are quiet about independence just now because their economic argument is transparently illiterate and they wouldn't even come close to the parameters required for EU accession.

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/scotland%E2%80%99s-fiscal-deficit-over-twice-uk%E2%80%99s-percentage-gdp


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 334

swl

sigh

http://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/scotland%E2%80%99s-fiscal-deficit-over-twice-uk%E2%80%99s-percentage-gdp


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