A Conversation for Ask h2g2

Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 341

Hoovooloo

"Cameron will be the one remembered for gambling to control his swivel-eyed loons and losing."

True, but he at least has other things on his CV. Legalising gay marriage, for one thing. May is now and forever more ONLY the Brexit Prime Minister. She is the one who will be remembered for supporting Remain, and then for cynical career purposes switching sides after the event, "Brexit means Brexit", and for making the single worst UK political decision of my lifetime - calling a general election three years before she needed to and squandering a safe parliamentary majority. That call makes the poll tax look like the minimum wage. The history books will have literally nothing to say about her that isn't about Brexit.

What's interesting at this point is watching the Tory sharks circling her lame-duck leadership, not a single one of them wanting to actually replace her yet. It is vitally important to them that the complete fscking disaster that Brexit is definitely going to turn into is 100% firmly identified with her. If I were her right now I'd fabricate some illness and step down "reluctantly". Whatever lambasting she got for cowardice will be as nothing compared to the vitriol that will come her way if she's in charge in the weeks and months after Brexit takes hold. I honestly think she might be assassinated - the security services must surely view it as an increased risk if they've any sense.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 342

bobstafford

Good analysis.
However it has exposed the true nature of the population, and racial tension will take a generation to go. The division of the population may well lead to the break up of the UK.

The irony is it may not stop immigration


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 343

Phoenician Trader

Surely everybody now realises it is physically impossible to write up the exit rules for every aspect of leaving. Even if all parties (EU, UK parliament etc) agreed, there is simply not enough time to actually do the typing to get it down in text, let a alone proof read it carefully and sign it.

So here is my guess. TM will announce with 3 months to go that
* Brexit is on track and everything is agreed
* The actual exit date is suspended in order to work through some technical issues (mutually agreed)
* Brexit is definitely on track and everything is agreed
* Nothing stands in the way of Brexit apart from some small technical issues that just need to be written up
* Because Brexit is now accomplished (excluding some small technical issues) she is now standing down have accomplished Brexit, which meant Brexit

She will then introduce her successor who will begin their speech along the lines of "Now the Brexit is done, and huge thanks to Theresa, let me introduce my top priority - badgers".

At the same time the EU will announce some actual, meaningful reform around governance.

The committees finalising Brexit will take over 10 years and a new referendum will be a clear necessity because the world will have moved on so much.

smiley - lighthouse


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 344

Hoovooloo

"the EU will announce some actual, meaningful reform around governance"

Why on earth would they do that?

We have NOTHING to threaten them with to achieve that, no meaningful leverage whatsoever. There are 27 of them and one of us, and there is nothing whatever happening that would incentivise them to do anything for us. There was, a long time ago, the suggestion that if Brexit was even vaguely successful, looked like even slightly a good idea, there was a risk it might cause the EU to fragment - that other countries might consider leaving. I think we can put that idea to bed - it's *already* clear that in voting to leave we've committed the biggest act of national self-harm in history, and for no good reason whatever. The other nations of the EU are looking at us and thinking "nope, staying in is DEFINITELY better".

Even if you're a dyed-in-the-wool Leave voter, ask yourself this: if Brexit is such a good idea, if the EU really is such a dreadful drain on cash and sovreignty - how come not a single other EU nation has even *considered* holding a referendum on leaving? How come no other government has looked at our example and thought "I want me some of that"? Could it be beccause it's OBVIOUSLY WRONG?

Here's my guess: Theresa May will bluster and BS all she likes, because nothing she or anyone else in the UK says is relevant. In a year and a half's time, on the precise two year anniversary of the triggering of Article 50, the borders will close, trade under existing rules will be suspended, and the UK economy will suffer its worst hit in history.

No typing is necessary - all the rules for trade and so on are already in place. The UK will operate precisely as though it is, for instance, Uruguay (I'm guessing they don't have any particularly favourable trading agreements - I'm probably wrong). The border between the UK and the EU will become like the "border" with Uruguay - and that includes our LAND border with the EU in Ireland. Life will get very, very inconvenient *overnight*, and it will require NO effort from anyone in the EU to make that happen - they already have the paperwork in place, they "just" need to start applying it to us. And make no mistake, they WILL be planning to make it apply to us on day one - they are NOT the UK government, bumbling along hoping everything's going to be all right on the day.

The Maybot will struggle on for a few months past the actual date of Brexit, but when the scale of the disaster begins to become clear (and it will at least start to make itself felt within weeks, rather than months), she will be either deposed or possibly assassinated. Either way, the Tories will do their best to make sure she takes as much of the blame personally as possible for the complete shambles this country is in for. Unless she feigns illness, she simply won't be *allowed* to step down until well after Brexit has been completed. And serve her right.

I predict that however hated and vilified Thatcher was, history will look upon her as Mother Teresa compared to May's legacy. Her name will be a byword for unprincipled opportunist incompetence for generations.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 345

Pink Paisley

And at some point Nigel Garage will be made MBE / OBE / CBE whatever.



PP.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 346

Icy North

Good point. I think a pre-emptive petition might be a good idea.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 347

Phoenician Trader

The EU will reform because it is ready to. Not because of Brexit. The UK is totally irrelevant.

MEP electorates will become better defined, the president & cabinet will become elected via some system or other. Lines of accountability will be clearer. Europe's federal legislative legitimacy will underpinned by the updated model of governance.

smiley - lighthouse


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 348

swl

And little lambs eat ivy


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 349

ITIWBS

I personally thought this past years' attempted coup d'etat in Turkey mounted by a Pennsylvania based Islamic militant group in the aftetmath of the 'Brexit' vote, was ghastly.

Someone, apparently, wanting to play 'both ends against the middle'.

The ghost of Arthur Zimmerman still haunts the world.


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 350

Baron Grim

PP, here's the smiley you were looking for.

smiley - dragon


Don't know how to decide how to vote in the Referendum?

Post 351

Still Incognitas, Still Chairthingy, Still lurking, Still invisible, unnoticeable, missable, unseen, just haunting h2g2

Wibble.smiley - wah


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