A Conversation for Ask h2g2

Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 381

Hoovooloo


The problem with anonymity for the defendant is that every single victim is placed in the position of being the first and only person to make the accusation. And if you're traumatised or whatever, it's surely far easier to follow through and make the accusation if there are one or two or ten or fifty other people saying exactly the same thing.

"am I right in thinking that that's 40% of reports of rape, not, you know, actual rapes"

Yes - because you can't make data out of shit some feminist has pulled out of her arse. Ultimately the only thing you can count is the stuff that gets reported. Anything else is just guesswork, filtered through whatever prejudice the person making the guess has, which is no way to make a policy.

"the false reports, therefore, might be overweighted in comparison to actual rapes"

I'd say that's almost a certainty. Which, again, surely is a case for vilifying the false reports all the more strongly - right?

"it would be interesting to have statistics for other crimes that get reported but not prosecuted"

The inconvenient fact is that, as a percentage of complaints, rape is prosecuted MORE often than other crimes, and the conviction rate is about the same as other crimes. You've far more chance of getting an alleged rapist in court, for instance, than an alleged burglar, say.

"but it's the police who decide there is enough evidence to arrest, surely? "

This is a touchingly naive view of how the police work. At least in the UK, the police have next to no discretion over whether to make an arrest, and absolutely no involvement at all in whether to proceed with a prosecution. This is not a situation unique to the crime of rape - it's the case right across the board. The police decide almost nothing, nowadays - those decisions have been taken out of their hands by government guidelines.


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 382

Sol

Actually, m'dear, I'd like to think it's not naivety but over-exposure to the sort of US drama where the DA spends a lot of time going 'yes, but there's not enough to take it to court'.

If we agree that 40% of false accusations is overstated, perhaps considerably so, in comparison to actual rapes, the could we perhaps also agree that it was a little bit unfair to bring that specific number up given quite how large it is? I appreciate that we are then in a situation of people like me suspecting that the actual figure of *maliciously* reported false rapes is really very small, and you not, but it does seem to me that we are back in the world of being more concerned about how men feel than about how women feel. I am afraid I don't consider the fear of being falsely accused of rape quite as much of a thing as the fear of actually being raped, however unlikely both of the scenarios may be, and to a certain extent I am dammed if I am going to support a suggestion that rape victims should face the prospect that they may have to go to court twice and be tried for having too much make up on twice for something that society in the realm of public opinion doesn't, in my opinion, do a good enough job of explaining up front is not, in fact, their fault.

You are, of course correct that the whole anonymity for both parties is not ideal.


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 383

Sol

OK, that statistic bothered me so much, in fact, that I actually did a brief google search. Hello Wikipedia! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_accusation_of_rape.

It wasn't the Kanin study you meant, was it? Here is what seem sto me to be a fairly sane discussion of the issue overall and Kanin in particular. http://www.amptoons.com/blog/2009/04/15/eugene-kanins-study-of-false-rape-reports/

It also seems that, in fact, women are prosecuted if they make false allegations. http://www.avoiceformen.com/mens-rights/false-rape-allegations-finally-getting-some-light/ And even that article does not dispute the actual statistics. I knew I'd seen a fairly recent study on the topic.

To be honest, really what I want to do is say 'what she said': http://glosswatch.com/2013/03/13/false-rape-allegations-why-the-distorted-focus/ but y'know, the woman is a self confessed humourless feminist, so...

Good grief, am I fisking?

I'll tell you what is positive, though, even if it doesn't seem that way, a conclusion I came to after I read Ben's blog about the women who escaped from captivity recently. Back in the day I remember what you might call the public discussion of rape cases focusing on whether or not people like the character in the Jodie Foster movie really were raped or did she bring it on herself. That sort of rape, which I am reasonably sure everyone now agrees was, in fact, unambiguously rape, was The News.

Now the news focus is on cases such as those two boys who had sex with the unconscious girl. This, I think is progress. It suggests that tolerance of rape is reducing. That's got to be helpful for both encouraging victims to come forward and for helping all concerned work out what isn't rape. Although right now I wouldn't want to be faced with the sort of reporting of the high school case were I the victim. Not that that would be the height of my problems perhaps. But back in the day such a case wouldn't have even been brought, so again, progress.

OK, I promise I'll shut up now.


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 384

U14993989

Has anyone on this thread had a false allegation made against him? smiley - shrug


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 385

Peanut

I've been googling as well

Over a 17 month period

There were 5,651 prosecutions of rape

159 suspected false allegations of rape refered to the CPS, 35 were prosecuted

Half of accusers were under 21, some under 16
18% had mental health problems

There were 111,891 prosecutions for domestic violence and 6 cases for making a false allegation.

A comment that went along with this report were that there was a 'misplaced belief' that the rate of false allegations were high


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 386

Hoovooloo

"I'd like to think it's not naivety but over-exposure to the sort of US drama..."

The difference being? That's more or less precisely what I meant: 'real life ain't like the TV'.

"could we perhaps also agree that it was a little bit unfair to bring that specific number up given quite how large it is? "

I mentioned it in the same context as the 2% figure. I'd say it would have been unfair to mention ONLY the 40% figure, and try to imply that it was the one and only best bit of data. I didn't do that.

Ultimately, I'd like to stop talking about this whole "false allegation" thing anyway - I only brought it up in the context of it being used as an argument for anonymity for those accused of rape. And I was pretty clear that, although I used to have reasons based on real-world cases to support anonymity for defendants, I have now changed my mind.

Here's a bit of data for you to follow up, can't remember where I read it. MRA's bleat on about how terrible the false allegation rate is (pointing to the 40% figure, or others of their own devising), and feminist bleat on about how the conviction rate is too low (usually with some made up bollocks about how they somehow know that only 2% of rapes even get reported, which is something it's not possible to know, by definition). They both go on about rape as though it's some incredibly unique crime, unlike any other - unlike assault, or murder, or burglary or whatever. And yet... if you look at real world data - the stuff it's possible to count, that is, not stuff you need to guess at - an interesting pattern becomes apparent. There are a number of stages in any prosecution of crime:
- report
- arrest
- charge
- prosecution
- conviction/acquittal
- punishment

And what's remarkable is that at every single one of those stages, the rates for rape, murder, assault, burglary etc. are all about the same, give or take.

Yes - only about (let's say) 5% of reported rapes result in a conviction. But only about 5% of reported assaults of any kind result in a conviction. When a bleating feminist says the rate of conviction FOR RAPE is "too low", the question on my mind is "why don't you care about any other kind of crime, for all of which the conviction rate is similarly low?". If we can only convict in 5% of burglary cases, why should we expect to do any better for rape?

Similarly, rates of false allegation turn out to be reasonably similar in similar circumstances.

The politically-incorrect conclusion one might draw from this is that rape is a crime like other crimes. It's not uniquely, qualitatively different. Victims suffer, perpetrators often get away with it, but when we can, we lock them up. I'd prefer a world where ALL violent crime is more heavily punished, ALL acquisitive crime (including tax evasion) is more heavily punished, and "crimes" like prostitution and drug use aren't even arrestable, much less imprisonable.


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 387

U14993989

I didn't realise that the "false allegation" thing was minor detour from another argument. I got interested in it from a comment made by Orcus.

Anyway I'd like to pick up on the following comment:

>> ... They both go on about rape as though it's some incredibly unique crime, unlike any other - unlike assault, or murder, or burglary or whatever. ... "why don't you care about any other kind of crime ... ". The politically-incorrect conclusion one might draw from this is that rape is a crime like other crimes. It's not uniquely, qualitatively different. Victims suffer, perpetrators often get away with it ... <<

So you are suggesting that rape is not qualitatively different to any other crime. That is some conflation and I am not sure how many would agree with you. I suppose you could say that those not in agreement with you are just being "politically correct", but I am not sure that is an argument that on its own holds much water. Personally I view rape as being a qualitatively different crime, although it is a category of assault and can lead to murder.

It would be interesting to get others peoples views on this matter - Is there a qualitative difference between rape and other crimes. I suspect there might be a gender difference in the results, i.e. I would hypothesise that females on average would see this more as a qualitatively different crime than some males.


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 388

swl

What isn't being highlighted is over 50% of rape allegations that make it to court result in a conviction.


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 389

U14993989

I'll add an observation: I note that some males can accept a small punch from another male, but won't accept a kiss on the cheek from that same male. I have seen some men explode with rage when a male plants a kiss on them in public.


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 390

U14993989

... especially if it is planted on the lips.


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 391

Peanut

Current conviction rate for rape 2012-2013 uk

63%

3692 prosecutions
2333 convictions

cases not taken to court 50%

For domestic violence the conviction rate is 74%

70,702 cases
52'549 convictions
18,153 aquittals

cases not taken to court 25%

sorry on a statistic splurge, and dropping them here for time being because I think gives some context to the other statistics being discussed and pointing out where they are coming from, which isn't plucked out some feminist's arse

smiley - cake



Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 392

swl

Thing is, rape is a particularly difficult crime to prosecute. It's overwhelmingly a crime committed without witnesses and is so traumatic that the victim often waits before reporting, thus allowing the physical evidence to disappear.

This isn't being misogynist or whatever, it's a matter of fact. In Scotland every statement in a court has to be corroborated. Even if someone signs a full confession to a crime, unless there is another piece of evidence they will not be convicted.

So you can see that if someone says they were raped some time ago and the physical evidence (semen, bruising etc) has gone and there are no witnesses it is impossible for a Scottish Court to convict. This may explain why, despite reporting going up(especially of historical cases), convictions haven't risen proportionately.



Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 393

Hoovooloo

smiley - yawn

@ Stone Aarse.

"you are suggesting that rape is not qualitatively different to any other crime".

I'm not "suggesting" that. I'm saying it, using exactly those words. smiley - rolleyes

" I am not sure how many would agree with you"

I don't care, and it doesn't matter, how many would agree with me. All that matters is - do the numbers support it? Is rape significantly different in the rate at which it is perpetrated, suffered, arrested, prosecuted and punished than other crimes, or not? This isn't something which has a lot of room for opinion.

" I am not sure that is an argument that on its own holds much water"

Well, like I say - whether you're sure or not is irrelevant. And the argument doesn't stand on its own. It leans on data. I don't have that data, I'm proposing a hypothesis. The data will either support it, or not. I suspect, obviously, that it will.

"Personally I view rape as being a qualitatively different crime, although it is a category of assault"

The first half of this sentence is IMMEDIATELY contradicted and rendered invalid by the bit after the comma. If you can't be right or coherent you can at least TRY to be consistent.

"I suspect there might be a gender difference in the results"

Really? Which gender do you think would mind least being a victim of rape? Because let me tell you, as a bloke, I can't imagine I'd enjoy it very much more than a woman would.

Note: I'm not saying rape is perfectly the same as assault, murder, burglary, whatever. It is obvious even to a dullard that such comparisons are like, say apples and oranges. What's it isn't is a comparison like apples and gas chambers - which is what some arguments seem to imply.


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 394

Peanut

*picks up where she left off*

sort of.

The question of arrest anonyminity is in the news. Thersa May has said that names should not necessarily be released at the arrest stage and Dave has said that the issue 'is not simple'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22549866

I am interested in hearing the response to this for the police.

I've been mulling, I think I would be ok with a right to anonyminity at the arrest stage, with the qualifications that if it is in the public interest to release the name that can happen and that the person arrested also has the right to waive it.

Apparently the release of Stuart Hall's name lead to no furthur charges.

I have yet to work through all the circumstances that would constitute 'public interest'.

That age of consent, I have some concerns but I think that on balance that reducing it to 14 would be a good thing with the ages steps worked in, 2 years difference between 14-16, 3 year between 16-18

This is not just abut age, it is about access to sex and relationship education and health care and other support services. It is all of these things that have a positive benefits for young people, puts them in the best position to make choices and I think provides them with the best legal frame work.






Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 395

You can call me TC - did you guess from my Hallowe'en name? (I can thrill lids)

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-27340134

Is there anyone left who is not involved in this?


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 396

Pink Paisley



Yes. Cliff.

Oh, gang on........

PP.


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 397

Orcus

Hmm, well there are plant of people who've been found innocent (and guilty) since - I guess we'll see.

It is hilarious that it's a bloke complaining though - outed, as if anyone didn't already know...


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 398

Orcus

wow - is autocorrect a scourge on modern posting or what smiley - cross - plant = plenty smiley - cross


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 399

Pink Paisley

wow - is autocorrect a scourge on modern posting or what smiley - cross

Yes. Unfortunate. Gang = hang. smiley - laugh

PP.


Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

Post 400

Orcus

lmao smiley - ok


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Jimmy Saville are you surprised?

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