h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

Astrophysicist Dr Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction.com has made a very stormy prediction concerning Hurricane force winds to hit the UK from about the 23rd of November 2007. His so called prediction of a superstorm stirred up a hornets nest in Holland and they interviewed him about this event in England on Sunday the 11th November. The YouTube interview is in English and Dutch but can be easily translated. I feel this may be a key event for those of us who do not agree that all the bad weather is from Man Made CO2, If the weather is out of control how can Dr Piers Corbyn make these predictions?

The question is will this storm put an end to the Man Made Global Warming Myth? or confirm to people that the so called Man Made Climate Change is out of control

Dr Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction.Com produced a weather forecast for November 2007 on the 16th October 2007. His prediction was that November is to have two major storms for the UK. The first storm, forecast for the 7th/8th November, was to take place in Scotland, this storm was expected to have winds in excess of 70/80 mph accompanied by a tidal surge along the East Coast of England, this first event was correctly forecast and it was by good fortune that the sea defence's held the tidalsurge back.

The Second Storm is expected around the 23rd/28th of November and the forecast is for it to have winds in excess of 70/80 mph and gusts of 100 mph over mainland England, this storm may even equal the power of the Hurricane of October 1987.

This is an extract from the original forecast produced in October 2007: -

An extended run of heavy rain local floods and major storms with thunder. Storm/hurricane gusts of 90mph to 130 mph. Probably worst in Central/South British Isles.

This period is the 304th anniversary of the devastating tempest of 26th/27th November (modern calendar dates) 1703. Likely track (80%confident) of damage eastwards: Holland, Denmark, N Germany, South Sweden and parts of Baltic States and Finland. Extremely stormy sea conditions and alarming build up of swell.

Sea defences in South and West particularly Severn estuary under threat. Note this period also includes a full Moon – hence higher than average tides. Probably all sea crossings closed.

Dr Piers Corbyn went on to say that he expects an extraordinarily powerful series of troughs and deep lows / frontal wave depressions and sublows including tornadoes and hurricane force winds sweep across Ireland, Wales and England.

So, all in all, this could be the biggest weather event for many years.

YouTube TV newsreel from Holland with Piers Corbyn

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=ldKnvFG_BGE

Original news story printed in the Daily Express 17th October 2007

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/22322/Killer-storms-to-lash-Britain

Will this event be fact or fiction by the end of the week, I think the official view will be that its all to do with climate change from man made CO2? However how can this be, as it was forecast to happen several months ago!

Why would the fact that scientists can predict the weather mean that the world is not warming up?

If I leave the handbrake off my car and it goes rolling down a hill, I can predict where it is going to crash at the bottom of the hill, yet the car is out of control.

For comic effect, it will of course crash into a milk float, causing milk and broken glass everywhere.

Yes I'm not sure of the logic being used here.

Scientists who believe that man-caused gobal warming is happening ARE able to estimate what that will mean, hence the horror predictions of rising water levels, more intense heatwaves and more violent storms.

Hi

Dr Piers Corbyn has been making his Suns Solar Wind Output to Weather predictions on the UK for many years. The more Solar Wind the more Earth has warming, its that simple, in the past 30 years we have had more solar wind from the Sun to the Earth.

Its just like warming up some water in a pan on a stove, what you will see and have is the gas escaping in the form of bubbles, so it follows if you have more warming on the Earth from the Suns Solar Wind some of the Earths gases start to escape as the Earth is warmed up from the Suns Solar Wind. The extra amount of CO2 from Man is very small and to try and say that Man Made CO2 is warming up the Planet is like saying that the bubbles in the warm water in the pan on the stove is warming the water, the science is that bad.

So, what of this weather forecast, Dr Piers Corbyn says that there is a very high chance of a very powerful storm to hit the UK from about the 23rd of November as the result of the next blast of Solar Wind from the Sun. The mechanics behind this are very complex, however the timing in advance is predictable and thats why Dr Piers Corbyn can make these weather forecast of Storms many months ahead.

Traveller in Time sceptic about predictions
"The Guy states he doe snot need the immense computer power the official weather forecasters need.

Just only confirms to me he has not a clue what they are doing with the computers.

The activity on the sun is what he claims to use as source for his weather predictons. This is like using the gass bill to set the room temperature. There is a relation ofcourse, just some extermal factors are left out; external temperature, open doors and windows. . . .

You will need some more information besides the solar activity to make a prediction about details as a storm. "

So, you're saying I can choose between the scientific consensus of the world's leading climatologists, and this chap whose demonstration of his credibility is based on the idea that he can predict that there will be a storm in November?

Difficult one.

sprout

Ill call you sceptic number 1 and im sure I will have over 100 as we continue, Dr Piers Corbyn has been producing these Solar Wind to Earth Weather forecasts correlations for nearly 20 years. So, I will not go on as if its all new etc. What I will say is this, if you invented a new drink containing a complex mix of things that tasted good, would people refuse to drink it if they did not know how the mix was put together? What Im saying is Dr Piers Corbyn has shown the Met Office the results of his work for many years and they refuse to use it, we should have in the next few days a very major severe weather warning, and they may well say after its taken place it was the result of Man Made Climate Change, they will not say it was from the Suns Solar Wind!

I dont think that anyone's denying that the earth's weather changes naturally AS WELL... Are they?

Hi

What the Met Office is saying is that anything that happens with the weather is the effect of Mans additional CO2, have you not seen the Al Gore film, it proves how you can brainwash people but nothing else.

Hi

I was thinking about the term AS WELL, so if this storm happens the Met Office will say, not only is it from the Suns Solar Wind its from Man AS WELL. No, this remark has not been mentioned before and will not be used. Im sure you will find by this time next week people will be talking about the impending disaster to hit the UK is from Man Made Climate Change. This is the situation so far, there is a 90% chance that the Suns Solar Wind will bring about a dramatic storm from about the 23rd of November, if it was from Man Made CO2 it would not have a predictable tail, it would be random a chaotic.

so, we created the sun now?

Hi

The Man Made theory makes Man change the Suns output, yes its that bad!! thanks for that, glad to know I have a friend on my side.

Whoa! How can you infer GW is incorrect because one chap can preduct the weather now and again? And since when was the weather "under control" to begin with?

Now if you're really talking about the solar wind, as opposed to solar radiation, then you're talking about the effect particles in the wind have on cloud formation. This is a complicated and unproven process, and doesn't explain what we're seeing.

New Scientist did a pretty good exercise of politely rubbishing of all the popular global warming myths here:

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19426041.100-the-7-biggest-myths-about-climate-change.html

This includes the cosmic ray theory on cloud formation, as well as the "man-made CO2 is a tiny proportion, therefore that can't be right" myth that you also mention. I suggest you read it.

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No it's not like that at all - that's convection. The earth can only radiate, there being no outside medium for heat to convect into. You seem to be correlating heat input with the escape of atmospheric gases, which even if true (it isn't - look at Venus) has nothing to do with global warming.

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The Met Office is saying that we didn't have any weather before industrial CO2 emissions??? I'm not sure what planet you're on, but it clearly doesn't obey the same laws of physics as earth.

I think the Met Office use all the data available to them, and account for all the possible forcing mechanisms. It would be very poor science indeed to try to predict the outcome of such a complex system using only one variable. I can't for the life of me think of a single scientist who does that

Actually, I think you're just confusing tabloid headlines with science. No scientist would attribute any single event to man-made causes - that's the Daily Mail's job. It's our job not to believe everything they print.

I'd be intrigued to know what you are using in place of logic, PYEB.

Fact: I don't recall any weather forecasting agency placing all their griefs on manmade CO2. The whole point about climate change is that it is not the same as weather change, so no meteorologist worth his salt would blame one storm on global warming. The whole reason the link between global warming and CO2 is still so tenuous is because there simply hasn't been enough evidence collected yet.

Fact: Weather is by its very nature chaotic. Which doesn't mean that we can't make predictions about it. You yourself have expressed the chances of this storm as 90%: that it a probablistic prediction rooted in the fact that a storm is naturally unpredictable.

Fact: The Earth's gases don't 'escape', at least not in any measurable quantity. I've no idea what you're trying to say with your 'pan of water' analogy, but it makes even less sense than your chaos theory.

As for your other analogy, well if you put a drink together from an unknown mixture of ingredients you wouldn't be allowed to market it.

B

And that would be a simulpost.

B

No, its a very simple idea to say if you heat up Earth you will have more gas, unfortunately its a Man Made thing to say its all too complex and that it does not work like that. The next thing you will do is to introduce additional Man Made CO2 and say it has to be man changing the weather. Take time out and look at the Dutch TV link put onto YouTube and listen to whats said about CO2.

To rewind this a little Dr Piers Corbyn correctly forecast the Tidal Surge along with the low pressure system on the 7th/8th November. Are you saying if there is a major weather event in the UK after the 23rd its not from the forecast by Dr Piers Corbyn and his Solar Wind but its from Man Made CO2?

You will have to let me know how Coca Cola and Pepsi is mixed up, or are you saying nobody drinks it