A Conversation for Predicting the Future

Cars of the Future

Post 1

Flyboy

I noticed the one quote about people not using the internet in their cars, but I think the cars themselves will use the internet. At present, when you take your car in to have it serviced at the dealership, they can check to see what version of software is in your engine control unit (ECU). If their is a better version available, they can clear and re-program the EPROM in the ECU.


Now imagine what will happen in the future when you start your car. The ECU connects to a website, checks to see if there is an updated program availible, then downloads it and reprograms the EPROM itself.


Electric cars are inevitable, but for how long? Gas engines are grossly inefficient, but they offer certain features that electric cars don't: the potential for more horsepower and longer range. You can get an electric car to outperform a gas car, but the range is severly shortened.

There is a new innovation that will drag out the gas engine's death - variable valve timing. I'm not talking about the Hondas with dual-lobed camshafts, or Nissans with camshafts advanced by oil pressure. I'm talking true infinitly variable valve timing controlled by computer. At idle or cruise the computer provides the equivalent of an anemic extreme gas-mileage, clean burning camshaft. When you nail the throttle, the computer gives the equivalent of a full-race cam.

Between the gas motor cars and electric cars will be hybrids, cars that you fill with gas like normal. The gas is then converted into electricity in a fuel cell. The only byproducts are carbon dioxide and water. You will be able to accelerate better than a gas powered car, but also have the fuel tank able to take you further since the fuel cell process is far more efficient.


Cars of the Future

Post 2

FBI_52

Think about the option of computer run cars. You could go at much higher speeds bumper to bumper because there would be no user error (other than possibly entering the wrong exit number). If you could get all the cars to be run that way there would be a whole lot less accidents (no user error) and traffic would move much more smoothly


Cars of the Future

Post 3

Flyboy

It would be the way to go, but I think it would take a while to catch on here. Too many people are fixated on being on control of their cars. I know I'd rather be driving than riding, but then I just like to drive.

I do think computer controlled cars are a ways off. The technology is present for a computer to control a vehicle, there are several 'driving systems' in testing right now, but none are able to handle traffic. Supposedly (according to a Popular Mechanics article I read a few years ago) the F-117 Stealth fighter is able to take off, fly a complex route to a destination, drop a payload, and return following a complex route, and land all on its own. But again there is no real traffic for it to compete against (just maybe a few SAMs).

Part of driving is knowing the psychology of other drivers and being able to predict their movements. How often do you see a traffic pattern developing and correctly predict another drivers' lane change? That's what's going to be difficult at first, until all the older cars are also computer controlled.


Cars of the Future

Post 4

FBI_52

But because of all of the cars being computer controlled (it wouldn't work without that) there would be no need to change lanes other than to accually turn off and at that point it could send some signal and the car would make the exact amount of room to let it in and it would then turn directly off at the exit it needed to and the other cars would fill back in bumper to bumper. The computers would have to be networked together for any of this to work and if one car was not computer controlled everyone would be screwed. If this were to happen I would guess that they would start designating roads (or lanes of roads) to only computer controlled vehicles. Once it is possible enough they could take half of each 4-way high way and make it computer controlled.
One more thing. I have been told that they are setting up a guidance system along one of the interstates that would allow a computer to navigate the road perfectly


Cars of the Future

Post 5

roll koel

Electric vehicles?

Battery technology just isn't at the stage where it is viable for every day use in light private vehicles. In England electric milkfloats (milk delivery) have been in operation for over twenty years and this represents the ideal scenario for electric power: Municpal vehicles.

The USABC (United States Advanced Battery Consortium) has been pushing battery technology forward in an effort to satisfy the following criteria for private light vehicle use:

specific energy( energy stored per kg of battery)
energy density(energy per unit of volume)
specific power (how fast energy can be released)
charging time
life time
cost per kw-hour of energy stored
ease of recycling
materials usage
reliability
width of acceptable temperature operating range (i.e. hot/cold weather)

Several new types of battery are being investigated;

sodium-sulphur
sodium-metal-chlorine
zinc-bromide
zinc-air
nickel-metal hydrides

Out of these Zinc-air is the most promising. Several types of battery have reached prototype stage with good prospects of becoming commerically available around 2000-2003. Other issues such as the recharging network, speed of recharging and life cycle need substantial investigation. A major bonus of EV's is zero emissions, obviously emissions are produced at the source of the electricity but this is much easier to control/filter. Several manufacturers have vehicles in production:

GM's EV1 (around $35,000)
PSA's Tulip (France)
Nissan Prairie Joy
Honda EV
Swatch/ Mercedes Benz's Smartcar

Current thinking is that electric power is more suitable for light delivery and public transport vehicles where power/weight ratio is not so critical. With current battery technology still in its' infancy you tend to lose the backseats of your car unless you have a specifically designed electric vehicle.

Much effort is going into researching hybrid vehicles which have dual power packs: electric for urban areas where range is not as important as zero emissions, and a lean-burn catalytic reformulated petrol engine for long distance cross-country work. Other companies are seriously looking at Hydrogen fuel-cells (similiar to those carried by NASA's Space Shuttle) but a major barrier is cost.

Canadian firm Ballard is running three fuel cell buses, each costing a cool $2 million. Cost and bulk are the major problems with fuel cells, hydrogen, liquid natural gas (LNG) and other alternative fuels are under investigation but all have specific problems relating to fuel storage, fuel distribution and cost.

For a balanced argument and results of much different research check out Friends of the Earth's "Fuelling the Debate" document available off www.foe.com.


Cars of the Future

Post 6

roll koel

Electric vehicles?

Battery technology just isn't at the stage where it is viable for every day use in light private vehicles. In England electric milkfloats (milk delivery) have been in operation for over twenty years and this represents the ideal scenario for electric power: Municpal vehicles.

The USABC (United States Advanced Battery Consortium) has been pushing battery technology forward in an effort to satisfy the following criteria for private light vehicle use:

specific energy( energy stored per kg of battery)
energy density(energy per unit of volume)
specific power (how fast energy can be released)
charging time
life time
cost per kw-hour of energy stored
ease of recycling
materials usage
reliability
width of acceptable temperature operating range (i.e. hot/cold weather)

Several new types of battery are being investigated;

sodium-sulphur
sodium-metal-chlorine
zinc-bromide
zinc-air
nickel-metal hydrides

Out of these Zinc-air is the most promising. Several types of battery have reached prototype stage with good prospects of becoming commerically available around 2000-2003. Other issues such as the recharging network, speed of recharging and life cycle need substantial investigation. A major bonus of EV's is zero emissions, obviously emissions are produced at the source of the electricity but this is much easier to control/filter. Several manufacturers have vehicles in production:

GM's EV1 (around $35,000)
PSA's Tulip (France)
Nissan Prairie Joy
Honda EV
Swatch/ Mercedes Benz's Smartcar

Current thinking is that electric power is more suitable for light delivery and public transport vehicles where power/weight ratio is not so critical. With current battery technology still in its' infancy you tend to lose the backseats of your car unless you have a specifically designed electric vehicle.

Much effort is going into researching hybrid vehicles which have dual power packs: electric for urban areas where range is not as important as zero emissions, and a lean-burn catalytic reformulated petrol engine for long distance cross-country work. Other companies are seriously looking at Hydrogen fuel-cells (similiar to those carried by NASA's Space Shuttle) but a major barrier is cost.

Canadian firm Ballard is running three fuel cell buses, each costing a cool $2 million. Cost and bulk are the major problems with fuel cells, hydrogen, liquid natural gas (LNG) and other alternative fuels are under investigation but all have specific problems relating to fuel storage, fuel distribution and cost.

For a balanced argument and results of much different research check out Friends of the Earth's "Fuelling the Debate" document available off www.foe.com.


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