h2g2 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: Earth Edition

[I hop this thread can bring together news/info about the Coronavirus outbreak. I'm writing form the perspective of someone in Boston, Massachusetts. Things are changing so fast that some of what follows is already out of date. I can't help that, but it's easy enough to correct. This virus ion global by now, so it is relevant to most of the researchers who are reading this....]

The movie theater I go to has cut in half the capacity of their theaters so that there will be a gap between each viewer.

All Massachusetts schools will be closed for the next three weeks.
Boston is requiring all restaurants and bars to reduce capacity by
50%, and to ensure that there are no lines outside the doors.

But all is not grim on the virus front. I've done some digging on
immune system resistance and past epidemics such as the Spanish Flu
(1918-1919).

Apparently, about half the people who are exposed to the flu don't get it, probably because their immune systems stave off infection right away.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44275043/ns/health-cold_and_flu/t/why-some-people-dont-get-flu/#.Xm5ztahKi1s
(This might be true for Covid-19, or it might not be. Nevertheless,
there is probably some reasonable chance of a healthy person not
getting it even if exposed.)

The infamous "Spanish Flu of 1918-1919 came in waves. Most of the
deaths occurred in one six-week period in the early stages. There were return bouts, but each one was smaller, probably because the people who had survived were now resistant to it. The Boston Globe has an excellent article on how Boston fared in 1918-1919. The last three months of 1918 were horrendous. People still died in 1919, but the numbers were significantly smaller.

It is possible to find out if someone is infected 36 hours before
symptoms start showing up.

Some major private labs in the U.S. are stepping up now to test people by the millions. We will soon see new numbers of infections, and they will reflect better testing, not necessarily a much larger number of infected people. Those people were infected, but didn't know it, or the rest of us didn't know it.

I certainly wouldn't want to be a casualty of this flu, but I've
started washing my hands a lot. Today I saw a customer wearing a face mask in Wegman's today. This will become a much more common sight.

Young people have a very small chance of dying from this. Those over
80 have about a 20% chance of dying, which sounds terrible until you
realize that this also means that 80% have a chance of surviving. I'm
in my early 70's. The odds of dying rise to about 7 or 8%, assuming
that I'm one of the people whose immune system doesn't block the
infection right away. .

Antioxidants may be the key to better immunity. Fresh, organic produce tasters good, and it might be good for my immunity. Alas, men are at greater risk of death. You're lucky if you're younger than this, and even luckier if you are female. The luckiest outcome of all would be to not be exposed to the virus in the first place.

Korea seems to have successfully gotten the virus under control. Hopefully other countries can do the same, including mine....

Thanks paulh

Here's a useful resource about maintaining Mental Health http://www.mind.org.uk/information-support/coronavirus-and-your-wellbeing

There are some good ideas at that site.

Hi Paulh,

As you say, things are moving fast. The UK has been issuing progressively stern advice, without actually enforcing people to isolate. I think this may be something peculiarly British - maybe we respond better if we know we still have control ultimately.

But the other aspect is that because of prolonged underinvestment in public services we don’t have the resources in law and order or the military that we used to, so society would rapidly disintegrate if there was significant civil disruption. The authorities have to strike a balance.

I watched the long briefing given by the PM and his medical advisers, and the mood and body language weren’t particularly confident. Let’s see.

Take care of yourself!

The Dutch prime minister (yes, the one that went viral (as a manner of speaking) because he shook hands after expressly forbidding everyone to do so) had a speech yesterday to explain the underlying thoughts of the restrictions we have. The approach is controlling, rather than blocking the outbreak, in order to not overload the Healthcare system, but still build up a base of immunity for the future. The disadvantage of full lockdown is that as soon as you end it, a single source can ignite the outbreak again, leading to an even longer period of disruption.

Current ruling here is:
-all schools are closed until 6th of april (at least).
-events with over 100 people are forbidden.
-maintain 1.5 m distance (minimum).
-all pubs, restaurants, clubs, cinemas, sports clubs have been closed until 6th of april (at least).
-work from home if possible. Stay at home in case of any cold/flu-like symptoms.

It appeared as if te PM had his hands glued to his desk to make shure he wouldn't do anything viral again.

"Current ruling here is:
-all schools are closed until 6th of april (at least).
-events with over 100 people are forbidden.
-maintain 1.5 m distance (minimum).
-all pubs, restaurants, clubs, cinemas, sports clubs have been closed until 6th of april (at least).
-work from home if possible. Stay at home in case of any cold/flu-like symptoms." [Caiman Raptor Elk]

That's exactly what the Governor of Massachusetts has ordered.

We will see if that slows the virus any.

The big problem seems to be that this is a new virus & far too much unknown about it. An interesting experiment in a way, to assess afterwards perhaps, which county took the most useful measures.

Just to note that masks are not especially useful - hand washing & sensible hygiene practice is far more important.

In our UK village I note that the roads are extremely quiet but people are still out walking - and stopping to chat. There is a bit of a sense that mental well being (ie some social contact) is important.

Nearly all regular groups, classes etc are cancelled. What interests me is the optimism that they might start again after Easter - I'm expecting this is a long haul business, it will be more likely September. A few comments have been made that we'll all have extremely clean, well decorated houses & well tended gardens by then....

And a baby boom starting at the end of the year.

Just annoyed that the smaller supermarkets in the village are not being resupplied. I suspect that the bigger outlets are getting resupplied first.

We had hoarding issues here. For some reason, loo rolls were very much sought after.

After that, a video went viral of a laughing guy driving his forklift around a huge warehouse completely filled with loo rolls...

I haven't been to the supermarket yet, but according to local social media, plenty of folks around here are eejits and hoarding TP, water, bread, &c. The supermarkets here are trying to assure everyone that their supply lines are good, that there's no need to hoard. I'm happy they also, finally, placed per shopper limits on the popular items. I'm not short of any of the popular items. I buy one 12 pack of TP a few times a year and since installing a hand-held bidet that now lasts much longer. The only reason people are buying all this TP is basically the concept (meme) spread as faster than the actual virus. People didn't even bother considering the practicality of it. They just saw that others were doing it so they did it too. I can almost understand buying an extra package, but some folks were buying literally as much as they could carry or fit in and on a shopping cart.

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it." - K.

lockdown here. Estado de alarma and frontiers closed.
I think that should be done everywhere. The virus spread very easily.
I can´t believe that the gov. in UK and USA are following what the psychopaths of Goldman Sachs have decided.
The right to health should be first, not profits.

Sooner or later it´s going to explode the number of infected in those countries that aren´t taking drastic measures.
We have the example of Corea, China to take example.
I can´t really understand why so much improvisation.

On the other hand... the Health System in UK... is the gov. going to throw lots of money to private services to pay what was previously cut by Tories? This is what some conservative regions in Spain are going to do.

I hate fachas. everywhere.

I'm sure that North Americans have a lockdown in their (our) future. Soon we will be allowed out of our homes only to visit supermarkets, pharmacies, and to take a solitary walk.

Meanwhile, I continue to read whatever I can find on the subject, hoping to become enlightened about what best I can do to stay clean, far enough away from potential infected people, and with an immune system as strong as I can make it.

No one knows how many unreported cases there are. No one knows how many have been exposed, but have repelled he virus right away so they didn't get sick.

Does this virus really have a mortality rate of 5 or 6%, or is the rate much lower because most infected people get such mild symptoms that the cases go unreported?

The best case? That the number of cases is six or seven times as high as the reported cases, so the mortality rate is perhaps 1%. I wouldn't want to be in that 1%, of course, nor would I want to be incapacitated by pneumonia (been there, done that). Still, if there were a crystal ball, and I could see the vast majority of us coming out on te other side unharmed, that would be a relief.

I don't want to think about death. Spring should be a time of celebrating life.

"I don't want to think about death. Spring should be a time of celebrating life. "

Of course amigo You are now like a bear, at your cave, hibernating.
If you go out to pick some berries and honey, wash your hands carefully as soon as you come back.

The mortality is low, the problem is if there are previous pathologies like hipertension, diabetes, coronary and respiratory conditions... this is why old people are most affected, because those are typical ageing deseases.

take care

And JUST NOW, President Big Brain opened today's statement on COVID-19 by again calling it "the Chinese virus".

WOW... and when a journalist questioned him on this, and specifically pointed out how Asians are being harassed and targeted here because of this, he doubled down. "It's not racist. It comes from CHJINA!"

It will eventually speak every language in the world, just give it time.

I suppose President big-brain is going to start banning immigrants from China, if he hasn't already. The things is, though, that 65,000 people in Wuhan have recovered from the virus to date. A bit more than 3,200 have died so far. This compares to about 81,000 cases overall, so about 12,000 still have it; who knows how many of those will die?

http://6abc.com/health/wuhan-china-confirms-only-1-new-covid-19-case-for-2nd-straight-day/6024070/

Given the effect on older people, I wonder what effect an explosion of COVID-19 will do to the US presidential elections. Will there be any candidates left?

I'm wondering that myself.

Apparently the mortality rate for those in their seventies is six or seven percent. For those over 80, it's around 20%. People with underlying problems (hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, etc.) are pretty much screwed. Those re basically healthy have good odds.

If we had five octogenarian candidates, we would still have 4 left after the virus. if we had 15 candidates in heir seventies, we might lose one.

On average. With that small a sample you could easily lose a lot more - or all could survive.

In the UK, could solve the social care issue...