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|   | Subject: Musings on certainty
Posted Apr 21, 2004 by Pattern-chaser | | Post: 1
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1. My experience of life indicates to me that human perception seems generally accurate, but definitely fallible.
2. My experience of life indicates to me that human memory seems generally accurate, but definitely fallible.
3. I have only ever noted the fallibility (described in 1 and 2) in other people.  I have observed the fallibility of others' perceptions and memories, and noted that they had no inkling of a problem. Thus I deduce that: (a) if others perceptions and memories fail them and they don't realise it, the same probably happens to me from time to time  , and (b) in general, there is no indication when my perception or memory is inaccurate: I assume, as I must, that my perception/memory works reliably.
4. The 'model' of the Universe that I have in my mind resembles a map. The map is not the territory, but using it to navigate the Real World normally results in what I expect; the map appears to work. And yet I must resist the temptation to assume that the Real World resembles my model in any meaningful sense, as I have no justification for this. [Analogy: a road map allows me to get from Brighton to Carlisle, but the flat paper map bears little resemblance to the land of Great Britain.]
Taking all the above together, it appears that certainty (0% or 100% probability) does not exist (for me!) in the Real World in which I live. Of course, this does not provoke a slide into chaos or solipsism, because all other values of probability *do* exist (again, for me). By analogy, the entire fence seems available for my use, but the two fence-posts (0% and 100% probability: the end-points) do not.
In one sense, therefore, I could be wasting my time and reasoning skills. Does it have a point? I think so: living my life, thinking and saying that X *is* Y, and similar things, contains implied certainties that I now know are unjustified. The implied certainty of *is* introduces problems, but does not appear to offer corresponding benefits. [Consider the apparent paradox I came across in my recent journal entry "nothing is certain".]
Now I must assemble these thoughts in a more cogent and useful format....
|  | Subject: Musings on certainty
Posted Apr 23, 2004 by  Dogster
This is a reply to this Posting.
| | Post: 2
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I agree with all of this. Have you seen the essay I recently posted on H2G2? It's a bit heavy going and long, but you might find it interesting.
A2421208
I hadn't seen it, but I'll read it when I have a little time spare. Thanks,  
Pattern-chaser
"Who cares, wins"
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